1899 Hoffenheim W v Mainz 05 W prediction · Frauen Bundesliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

1899 Hoffenheim WDrawMainz 05 W

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · 1899 Hoffenheim W 79%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

1899 Hoffenheim W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: 1899 Hoffenheim W 79%, draw 13%, Mainz 05 W 8%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on 1899 Hoffenheim W v Mainz 05 WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

1899 Hoffenheim W win79%

Draw13%

Mainz 05 W win8%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueDietmar-Hopp-Stadion

RefereeDaniela Kottmann

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

1899 Hoffenheim W

Mainz 05 W

21Days since last match7

Last match: 4 Oct · Frauen Bundesliga

Last match: 18 Oct · Frauen Bundesliga

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	1899 Hoffenheim W	6	−3	6
14	Mainz 05 W	7	−21	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · 1899 hoffenheim w winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

79% The market81%

Us79%

~~Market~~81%

We make 1899 Hoffenheim W a 79% chance to win. The market has them at 81%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 3.0–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · 1899 Hoffenheim W v Mainz 05 W~~3.03 – 0.82

~~Form · last six in Frauen Bundesliga this season · since 23 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 6 v 0~~11 v 14

~~The market · 1899 Hoffenheim W win~~81% · ours 79%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · 1899 Hoffenheim W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 81% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
1899 Hoffenheim W win	79%	81%	−2
Draw	13%	12%	+1
Mainz 05 W win	8%	8%	0
Over 2.5 goals	72%	73%	−1
Both teams to score	52%	52%	0
Over 1.5 goals	88%	88%	0
Over 3.5 goals	52%	54%	−2
1899 Hoffenheim W or draw	92%	92%	0
1899 Hoffenheim W clean sheet	45%	–	–
Mainz 05 W clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 9.7%

0123450 2.7 2.0 1 6.9 5.7 2.5 2 9.7 7.7 3.3 3 9.3 7.2 3.1 4 7.0 5.3 2.2 5 4.5 3.2

under 2% 5% 12%+1899 Hoffenheim W down, Mainz 05 W across0–5 goals a side shown (89.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 759 Frauen Bundesliga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Frauen Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.3% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

1899 Hoffenheim W at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Mainz 05 W away: 0.00 scored, 3.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

3.03 goals for 1899 Hoffenheim W, 0.82 for Mainz 05 W. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Frauen Bundesliga this season · since 23 Aug

1899 HOFFENHEIM W

LLLLWW1–2 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 2–4 · 2–1 · 2–1

MAINZ 05 W

LLLLLL0–2 · 0–4 · 0–3 · 2–3 · 0–5 · 0–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bayern Munich W	8	+22	24
2	VfL Wolfsburg W	8	+18	21
3	Eintracht Frankfurt W	7	+5	14
4	Bayer Leverkusen W	7	+3	13
5	FC Koln W	8	+1	12
6	Werder Bremen W	6	+2	10
7	RB Leipzig W	8	0	10
8	SC Freiburg W	7	−2	10
9	Union Berlin W	7	−2	9
10	Stuttgart W	7	−9	8
11	1899 Hoffenheim W	6	−3	6
12	Hamburger SV W	7	−1	5
13	Nürnberg W	7	−13	2
14	Mainz 05 W	7	−21	0