VfL Bochum v FSV Mainz 05
VfL BochumFSV Mainz 05DFB Pokal · TUE 27 OCT · Vonovia Ruhrstadion
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
FSV Mainz 05 are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: VfL Bochum 23%, draw 26%, FSV Mainz 05 51%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 49%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
VfL Bochum win23%FSV Mainz 05 win51%Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 17:00
RoundRound of 32
VenueVonovia Ruhrstadion
Match timeline
All events
VfL BochumMINFSV Mainz 05Events will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
VfL Bochum
FSV Mainz 05
Last match: 23 Oct · 2. Bundesliga
Last match: 24 Oct · the German Bundesliga
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make FSV Mainz 05 a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.6.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 52%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfL Bochum win | 23% | 19% | +4 |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | +3 |
| FSV Mainz 05 win | 51% | 58% | −7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 60% | −14 |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 58% | −9 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | 80% | −8 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 39% | −14 |
| VfL Bochum or draw | 49% | 42% | +7 |
| VfL Bochum clean sheet | 21% | – | – |
| FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet | 39% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
9 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · DFB Pokal this season · since 23 Aug
VFL BOCHUM
FSV MAINZ 05