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Model 1.2

Home › Football › DFB Pokal › SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach v FC Augsburg

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SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach v FC Augsburg

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
17:00Upcoming
FC Augsburg

DFB Pokal · TUE 27 OCT · WIRmachenDRUCK Arena

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SG Sonnenhof GrossaspachDrawFC Augsburg
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00
Before kick-off · Match result · FC Augsburg 71%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Augsburg are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 12%, draw 17%, FC Augsburg 71%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach v FC AugsburgBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach win12%
Draw17%
FC Augsburg win71%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 17:00

RoundRound of 32

VenueWIRmachenDRUCK Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

FC Augsburg

3Days since last match3

Last match: 24 Oct · 3. Liga

Last match: 24 Oct · the German Bundesliga

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc augsburg winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:29 · locked at kick-off
71% The market68%
Us71%
Market68%

We make FC Augsburg a 71% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–2.5.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach v FC Augsburg0.96 – 2.52
Form · DFB Pokal this season · since 22 AugW0 D1 L0 · W1 D0 L0
The market · FC Augsburg win68% · ours 71%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
65%70%75% 21 OCT 00:0125 OCT 01:05
Our probability · FC Augsburg win The market, margin stripped

Published at 67%, 71% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 68% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach win12%13%−1
Draw17%18%−1
FC Augsburg win71%68%+3
Over 2.5 goals68%66%+2
Both teams to score57%56%+1
Over 1.5 goals86%84%+2
Over 3.5 goals46%45%+1
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach or draw29%32%−3
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach clean sheet8%––
FC Augsburg clean sheet38%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 9.8%
0123450 3.3 7.5 9.8 8.2 5.2 2.61 2.7 7.7 9.4 7.9 5.0 2.52 3.6 4.5 3.8 2.4 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach down, FC Augsburg across0–5 goals a side shown (95.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · DFB Pokal this season · since 22 Aug

SG SONNENHOF GROSSASPACH

D2–2

FC AUGSBURG

W2–0