SC Freiburg v VfL Wolfsburg
SC FreiburgVfL WolfsburgDFB Pokal · WED 28 OCT · Europa-Park Stadion
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
SC Freiburg are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: SC Freiburg 51%, draw 25%, VfL Wolfsburg 24%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 59%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
SC Freiburg win51%VfL Wolfsburg win24%Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 17:00
RoundRound of 32
VenueEuropa-Park Stadion
Match timeline
All events
SC FreiburgMINVfL WolfsburgEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
SC Freiburg
VfL Wolfsburg
Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League
Last match: 23 Oct · 2. Bundesliga
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make SC Freiburg a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 14 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.2.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 51% | 65% | −14 |
| Draw | 25% | 20% | +5 |
| VfL Wolfsburg win | 24% | 15% | +9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 67% | −9 |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 61% | −2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | 85% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 47% | −11 |
| SC Freiburg or draw | 76% | 85% | −9 |
| SC Freiburg clean sheet | 30% | – | – |
| VfL Wolfsburg clean sheet | 16% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · DFB Pokal this season · since 23 Aug
SC FREIBURG
VFL WOLFSBURG