Holstein Kiel v 1899 Hoffenheim
Holstein Kiel1899 HoffenheimDFB Pokal · WED 28 OCT · Holstein-Stadion
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
1899 Hoffenheim are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Holstein Kiel 26%, draw 23%, 1899 Hoffenheim 51%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 63%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
Holstein Kiel win26%1899 Hoffenheim win51%Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 19:45
RoundRound of 32
VenueHolstein-Stadion
Match timeline
All events
Holstein KielMIN1899 HoffenheimEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Holstein Kiel
1899 Hoffenheim
Last match: 16 Oct · 2. Bundesliga
Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make 1899 Hoffenheim a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.9.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 50%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 26% | 17% | +9 |
| Draw | 23% | 20% | +3 |
| 1899 Hoffenheim win | 51% | 64% | −13 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 69% | −6 |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | 86% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | 49% | −8 |
| Holstein Kiel or draw | 49% | 36% | +13 |
| Holstein Kiel clean sheet | 14% | – | – |
| 1899 Hoffenheim clean sheet | 26% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
3 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · DFB Pokal this season · since 22 Aug
HOLSTEIN KIEL
1899 HOFFENHEIM