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Model 1.2

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Hannover 96 v 1. FC Kaiserslautern

Hannover 96
19:45Upcoming
1. FC Kaiserslautern

DFB Pokal · WED 28 OCT · Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Hannover 96Draw1. FC Kaiserslautern
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45
Before kick-off · Match result · Hannover 96 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hannover 96 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hannover 96 44%, draw 26%, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 29%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Hannover 96 v 1. FC KaiserslauternBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Hannover 96 win44%
Draw26%
1. FC Kaiserslautern win29%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 19:45

RoundRound of 32

VenueHeinz-von-Heiden-Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hannover 96

1. FC Kaiserslautern

11Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · 2. Bundesliga

Last match: 24 Oct · 2. Bundesliga

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hannover 96 winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:29 · locked at kick-off
44% The market50%
Us44%
Market50%

We make Hannover 96 a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Hannover 96 v 1. FC Kaiserslautern1.52 – 1.19
Form · DFB Pokal this season · since 21 AugW1 D0 L0 · W0 D1 L0
The market · Hannover 96 win50% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 22 OCT 00:0125 OCT 02:26
Our probability · Hannover 96 win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Hannover 96 win44%50%−6
Draw26%24%+2
1. FC Kaiserslautern win29%26%+3
Over 2.5 goals51%62%−11
Both teams to score55%63%−8
Over 1.5 goals76%82%−6
Over 3.5 goals29%42%−13
Hannover 96 or draw71%74%−3
Hannover 96 clean sheet31%––
1. FC Kaiserslautern clean sheet22%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%
0123450 7.4 7.4 4.7 1 9.6 12.5 7.1 2.8 2 7.7 9.0 5.4 2.1 3 3.9 4.6 2.7 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Hannover 96 down, 1. FC Kaiserslautern across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.75
Over 2.55 of 8
Both scored6 of 8
Last meetingsFCK 3–1 HAN · HAN 1–0 FCK · FCK 0–0 HAN · HAN 3–1 FCK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · DFB Pokal this season · since 21 Aug

HANNOVER 96

W9–1

1. FC KAISERSLAUTERN

D0–0