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Model 1.2

Home › Football › DFB Pokal › Borussia Mönchengladbach v Karlsruher SC

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Borussia Mönchengladbach v Karlsruher SC

Borussia Mönchengladbach
19:45Upcoming
Karlsruher SC

DFB Pokal · TUE 27 OCT · Borussia-Park

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Borussia MönchengladbachDrawKarlsruher SC
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45
Before kick-off · Match result · Borussia Mönchengladbach 67%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Borussia Mönchengladbach are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Borussia Mönchengladbach 67%, draw 17%, Karlsruher SC 16%. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Borussia Mönchengladbach v Karlsruher SCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Borussia Mönchengladbach win67%
Draw17%
Karlsruher SC win16%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:45

RoundRound of 32

VenueBorussia-Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Karlsruher SC

4Days since last match3

Last match: 23 Oct · the German Bundesliga

Last match: 24 Oct · 2. Bundesliga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · borussia mönchengladbach winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:29 · locked at kick-off
67% The market71%
Us67%
Market71%

We make Borussia Mönchengladbach a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 71%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.6–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Borussia Mönchengladbach v Karlsruher SC2.63 – 1.23
Form · DFB Pokal this season · since 21 AugW1 D0 L0 · W1 D0 L0
The market · Borussia Mönchengladbach win71% · ours 67%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
60%65%70%75% 21 OCT 00:0125 OCT 01:05
Our probability · Borussia Mönchengladbach win The market, margin stripped

Published at 63%, 67% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 71% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Borussia Mönchengladbach win67%71%−4
Draw17%17%0
Karlsruher SC win16%11%+5
Over 2.5 goals74%66%+8
Both teams to score66%55%+11
Over 1.5 goals90%84%+6
Over 3.5 goals54%46%+8
Borussia Mönchengladbach or draw84%89%−5
Borussia Mönchengladbach clean sheet29%––
Karlsruher SC clean sheet7%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.0%
0123450 2.3 2.4 1 5.3 7.1 4.2 2 7.3 9.0 5.5 2.3 3 6.4 7.8 4.8 4 4.2 5.2 3.2 5 2.2 2.7
under 2% 5% 12%+Borussia Mönchengladbach down, Karlsruher SC across0–5 goals a side shown (94.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22
Goals a meeting4.00
Over 2.51 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsBOR 3–1 KAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · DFB Pokal this season · since 21 Aug

BORUSSIA MÖNCHENGLADBACH

W5–0

KARLSRUHER SC

W2–1