Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen
Borussia DortmundWerder BremenDFB Pokal · TUE 27 OCT · Signal Iduna Park
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Borussia Dortmund are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Borussia Dortmund 67%, draw 19%, Werder Bremen 14%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 58%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
Borussia Dortmund win67%Werder Bremen win14%Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:45
RoundRound of 32
VenueSignal Iduna Park
Match timeline
All events
Borussia DortmundMINWerder BremenEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Borussia Dortmund
Werder Bremen
Last match: 24 Oct · the German Bundesliga
Last match: 24 Oct · the German Bundesliga
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Borussia Dortmund a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 69%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.4–1.0.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 69% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 67% | 69% | −2 |
| Draw | 19% | 18% | +1 |
| Werder Bremen win | 14% | 13% | +1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 65% | +1 |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 55% | +3 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | 83% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 44% | 0 |
| Borussia Dortmund or draw | 86% | 87% | −1 |
| Borussia Dortmund clean sheet | 37% | – | – |
| Werder Bremen clean sheet | 9% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
9 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · DFB Pokal this season · since 22 Aug
BORUSSIA DORTMUND
WERDER BREMEN