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Model 1.2

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Bayer Leverkusen v 1. FC Nürnberg

Bayer Leverkusen
19:45Upcoming
1. FC Nürnberg

DFB Pokal · WED 28 OCT · BayArena

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Bayer LeverkusenDraw1. FC Nürnberg
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45
Before kick-off · Match result · Bayer Leverkusen 83%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bayer Leverkusen are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bayer Leverkusen 83%, draw 11%, 1. FC Nürnberg 6%. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Bayer Leverkusen v 1. FC NürnbergBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Bayer Leverkusen win83%
Draw11%
1. FC Nürnberg win6%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 19:45

RoundRound of 32

VenueBayArena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bayer Leverkusen

1. FC Nürnberg

6Days since last match4

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

Last match: 24 Oct · 2. Bundesliga

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

In the news

from the pressAll ›
PODCAST | Matchday 7 predictions – VfB Stuttgart to get season back on track, Bayer Leverkusen continue strong formGet German Football News · · VfB Stuttgart, Bayer Leverkusen FEATURE | Bayer Leverkusen’s rise from a season of chaosGet German Football News · · Bayer Leverkusen

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bayer leverkusen winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
83% The market81%
Us83%
Market81%

We make Bayer Leverkusen an 83% chance to win. The market has them at 81%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 3.1–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Bayer Leverkusen v 1. FC Nürnberg3.10 – 0.77
Form · DFB Pokal this season · since 22 AugW1 D0 L0 · W0 D1 L0
The market · Bayer Leverkusen win81% · ours 83%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
80%85% 22 OCT 00:0125 OCT 00:55
Our probability · Bayer Leverkusen win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 81% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Bayer Leverkusen win83%81%+2
Draw11%12%−1
1. FC Nürnberg win6%7%−1
Over 2.5 goals74%77%−3
Both teams to score51%56%−5
Over 1.5 goals90%90%0
Over 3.5 goals54%59%−5
Bayer Leverkusen or draw94%93%+1
Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet46%––
1. FC Nürnberg clean sheet4%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–0 at 10.4%
0123450 2.2 1 6.3 5.1 2 10.0 7.7 2.9 3 10.4 8.0 3.1 4 8.1 6.2 2.4 5 5.0 3.8
under 2% 5% 12%+Bayer Leverkusen down, 1. FC Nürnberg across0–5 goals a side shown (90.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · DFB Pokal this season · since 22 Aug

BAYER LEVERKUSEN

W4–0

1. FC NÜRNBERG

D1–1