1. FC Köln v Union Berlin
1. FC KölnUnion BerlinDFB Pokal · TUE 27 OCT · RheinEnergieStadion
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
1. FC Köln are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: 1. FC Köln 44%, draw 27%, Union Berlin 29%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
1. FC Köln win44%Union Berlin win29%Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:45
RoundRound of 32
VenueRheinEnergieStadion
Match timeline
All events
1. FC KölnMINUnion BerlinEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
1. FC Köln
Union Berlin
Last match: 24 Oct · the German Bundesliga
Last match: 24 Oct · the German Bundesliga
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make 1. FC Köln a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 44% | 52% | −8 |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | +2 |
| Union Berlin win | 29% | 23% | +6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 58% | −6 |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 59% | −3 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 79% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 37% | −7 |
| 1. FC Köln or draw | 71% | 77% | −6 |
| 1. FC Köln clean sheet | 30% | – | – |
| Union Berlin clean sheet | 22% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
8 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · DFB Pokal this season · since 23 Aug
1. FC KÖLN
UNION BERLIN