Werder Bremen v 1899 Hoffenheim prediction · Bundesliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Werder BremenDraw1899 Hoffenheim

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Werder Bremen 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Werder Bremen are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Werder Bremen 42%, draw 24%, 1899 Hoffenheim 34%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Werder Bremen v 1899 HoffenheimBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Werder Bremen win42%

Draw24%

1899 Hoffenheim win34%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 8

VenueWeserstadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Werder Bremen

1899 Hoffenheim

7Days since last match9

Last match: 24 Oct · the German Bundesliga

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Werder Bremen	7	+1	12
14	1899 Hoffenheim	6	−3	6

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Three things we learnt from Bundesliga Matchday 7 – Antonio Nusa, Werder Bremen are fun and Said El MalaGet German Football News · 24 Oct 17:23 · Werder Bremen

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · werder bremen winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

42% The market33%

Us42%

~~Market~~33%

We make Werder Bremen a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Werder Bremen v 1899 Hoffenheim~~1.79 – 1.59

~~Form · last six in Bundesliga this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D3 L0 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 12 v 6~~6 v 14

~~The market · Werder Bremen win~~33% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Werder Bremen win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Werder Bremen win	42%	33%	+9
Draw	24%	24%	0
1899 Hoffenheim win	34%	43%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	66%	66%	0
Both teams to score	67%	68%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	86%	84%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	44%	47%	−3
Werder Bremen or draw	66%	57%	+9
Werder Bremen clean sheet	21%	–	–
1899 Hoffenheim clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 4.4 4.6 4.3 2.3 1 5.2 10.5 7.6 4.1 2 5.4 8.6 6.8 3.6 3 3.2 5.1 4.1 2.2 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Werder Bremen down, 1899 Hoffenheim across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,601 Bundesliga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.5% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Werder Bremen at home: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). 1899 Hoffenheim away: 1.50 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.79 goals for Werder Bremen, 1.59 for 1899 Hoffenheim. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~HOF 1–0 WER · WER 0–2 HOF · WER 1–3 HOF · HOF 3–4 WER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Bundesliga this season · since 29 Aug

WERDER BREMEN

WDWDDW3–1 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 3–2

1899 HOFFENHEIM

LLWLLW2–3 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Borussia Dortmund	7	+8	17
2	Bayern München	6	+17	14
3	SC Freiburg	6	+9	13
4	Bayer Leverkusen	6	+7	13
5	RB Leipzig	7	+9	12
6	Werder Bremen	7	+1	12
7	FSV Mainz 05	7	+3	10
8	SV Elversberg	7	−3	10
9	FC Augsburg	7	+4	9
10	Hamburger SV	7	−10	9
11	1. FC Köln	7	−3	8
12	SC Paderborn 07	7	−3	8
13	Eintracht Frankfurt	7	−7	8
14	1899 Hoffenheim	6	−3	6
15	VfB Stuttgart	7	−3	6
16	FC Schalke 04	7	−3	6
17	Union Berlin	7	−12	6
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	7	−11	3