VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Mönchengladbach prediction · Bundesliga

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 22:01

VfB Stuttgart 2–3 Borussia Mönchengladbach VFB STUTTGART WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said VfB Stuttgart win~~61%

~~The market said~~71%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.082

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.294

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said VfB Stuttgart win at 61%.
1′Much as we predicted: VfB Stuttgart was 61% before kick-off and our model makes it 61% now. 0–0 · 61–21–18
1′KICK-OFF VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Mönchengladbach
6′VfB Stuttgart ahead on 5′ through Ermedin Demirović. 1–0. 1–0 · 81–11–7
6′⚽ GOAL · 5' VfB Stuttgart 1–0 Borussia Mönchengladbach · Ermedin Demirović
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' VfB Stuttgart win: 61% at kick-off, 81% now
7′We published VfB Stuttgart at 61%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–11–7
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.5 we expected. 1–0 · 81–13–6
38′Joe Scally scores for Borussia Mönchengladbach on 38′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 52–29–19
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' VfB Stuttgart 1–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach · Joe Scally
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' VfB Stuttgart win: 61% at kick-off, 52% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' VfB Stuttgart win: 61% at kick-off, 51% now
44′We said VfB Stuttgart at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 1–1 · 49–31–19
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Leo Sauer · VfB Stuttgart
45′HALF-TIME VfB Stuttgart 1–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Atakan Karazor · VfB Stuttgart
46′SECOND HALF VfB Stuttgart 1–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach
50′🟨 YELLOW · 45+3' Florian Neuhaus · Borussia Mönchengladbach
51′We said VfB Stuttgart at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 1–2 · 18–28–54
51′51′: Shuto Machino on the scoresheet for Borussia Mönchengladbach, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 18–28–54
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' VfB Stuttgart 1–2 Borussia Mönchengladbach
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' VfB Stuttgart win: 61% at kick-off, 18% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Borussia Mönchengladbach win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was VfB Stuttgart win 47%)
54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Zento Uno · Borussia Mönchengladbach
55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Joe Scally · Borussia Mönchengladbach
55′SUBSTITUTION · 55' VfB Stuttgart · On: Deniz Undav · Off: Dženan Pejčinović
55′SUBSTITUTION · 55' VfB Stuttgart · On: Jamie Leweling · Off: Leo Sauer
55′SUBSTITUTION · 55' VfB Stuttgart · On: Bilal El Khannouss · Off: Lorenz Assignon
58′We said VfB Stuttgart at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–28–58
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' VfB Stuttgart win: 61% at kick-off, 11% now
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' VfB Stuttgart · On: Grischa Prömel · Off: Atakan Karazor
66′We said VfB Stuttgart at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 1–3 · 2–8–90
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' VfB Stuttgart 1–3 Borussia Mönchengladbach
67′Borussia Mönchengladbach ahead on 66′ through Wael Mohya. 1–3. 1–3 · 2–8–91
67′4 goals already, more than the 3.5 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 2–8–91
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' VfB Stuttgart win: 61% at kick-off, 1% now
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Borussia Mönchengladbach · On: Robin Hack · Off: Wael Mohya
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Borussia Mönchengladbach · On: Yukhym Konoplya · Off: Joe Scally
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Borussia Mönchengladbach · On: David Herold · Off: Fabio Cristian Chiarodia
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Lukas Ullrich · Borussia Mönchengladbach
84′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 1–12–87
84′Ermedin Demirović scores for VfB Stuttgart on 83′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 1–12–87
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' VfB Stuttgart 2–3 Borussia Mönchengladbach
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Borussia Mönchengladbach · On: Lion Schweers · Off: Shuto Machino
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Borussia Mönchengladbach · On: Mathieu Nguefack · Off: Hugo Bolin
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' VfB Stuttgart · On: Jeffrey Julian Gaston Chabot · Off: Finn Jeltsch
FTFULL TIME VfB Stuttgart 2–3 Borussia Mönchengladbach
FTVfB Stuttgart 2–3 Borussia Mönchengladbach · VfB Stuttgart win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

VfB Stuttgart are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: VfB Stuttgart 61%, draw 21%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 18%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on VfB Stuttgart v Borussia MönchengladbachBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

VfB Stuttgart win61%

Draw21%

Borussia Mönchengladbach win18%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 19:30

RoundMatchday 7

VenueMHP Arena

RefereeMatthias Jollenbeck

Line-ups

VfB Stuttgart

4-2-3-1

Borussia Mönchengladbach

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

VfB Stuttgart

Borussia Mönchengladbach

3Days since last match5

Last match: 20 Oct · UEFA Champions League

Last match: 18 Oct · the German Bundesliga

4Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	VfB Stuttgart	6	−2	6
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	6	−12	0

In the news

from the pressAll ›

PODCAST | Matchday 7 predictions – VfB Stuttgart to get season back on track, Bayer Leverkusen continue strong formGet German Football News · 23 Oct 10:37 · VfB Stuttgart, Bayer Leverkusen Alexander Blessin rattles off list of nine absentees as Borussia Mönchengladbach approach unwanted Bundesliga recordGet German Football News · 22 Oct 15:16 · Borussia Mönchengladbach VfB Stuttgart head into crucial Bundesliga encounter without leading league goalscorerGet German Football News · 22 Oct 13:51 · VfB Stuttgart

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

VfB Stuttgart

4-2-3-1

41 D. Seimen

22 L. Assignon

29 Finn Jeltsch

3 R. Hendriks

7 M. Mittelstädt

6 A. Stiller

16 A. Karazor

44 L. Sauer

17 D. Pejčinović

10 C. Führich

9 E. Demirović

Coach · S. Hoeneb

Substitutes

2 · A. Al Dakhil

1 · F. Bredlow

24 · J. Chabot

18 · J. Leweling

21 · G. Prömel

47 · Y. Spalt

20 · L. Stergiou

26 · D. Undav

11 · B. El Khannouss

Borussia Mönchengladbach

3-4-2-1

1 M. Nicolas

14 D. Hashioka

16 P. Sander

2 F. Chiarodia

29 J. Scally

47 Z. Uno

10 F. Neuhaus

26 L. Ullrich

38 H. Bolin

36 W. Mohya

18 S. Machino

Coach · A. Blessin

Substitutes

7 · K. Stöger

48 · Lion Schweers

34 · M. Nguefack

22 · Y. Konoplya

20 · D. Herold

25 · R. Hack

39 · I. M. Danfa

33 · D. Batz

35 · J. Uwakhonye

Our number · vfb stuttgart winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

61% The market71%

Us61%

~~Market~~71%

We make VfB Stuttgart a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 71%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Mönchengladbach~~2.31 – 1.22

~~Form · Bundesliga this season · since 28 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 6 v 0~~13 v 18

~~The market · VfB Stuttgart win~~71% · ours 61%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · VfB Stuttgart win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 71% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
VfB Stuttgart win	61%	71%	−10
Draw	21%	16%	+5
Borussia Mönchengladbach win	18%	13%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	68%	74%	−6
Both teams to score	64%	65%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	87%	88%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	47%	55%	−8
VfB Stuttgart or draw	82%	87%	−5
VfB Stuttgart clean sheet	30%	–	–
Borussia Mönchengladbach clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.5%

0123450 3.8 2.9 2.2 1 6.1 9.0 5.0 2.0 2 7.8 9.5 5.7 2.3 3 6.0 7.3 4.4 4 3.5 4.2 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+VfB Stuttgart down, Borussia Mönchengladbach across0–5 goals a side shown (96.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,594 Bundesliga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.1% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.30 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

VfB Stuttgart at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 0.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.31 goals for VfB Stuttgart, 1.22 for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Most likely score 2–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 23 Oct 19:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.30

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BOR 0–3 VFB · VFB 1–0 BOR · VFB 1–2 BOR · BOR 1–3 VFB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Bundesliga this season · since 28 Aug

VFB STUTTGART

LWLLWL1–5 · 4–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–1

BORUSSIA MÖNCHENGLADBACH

LLLLLL0–3 · 3–4 · 0–5 · 3–4 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bayern München	6	+17	14
2	Borussia Dortmund	6	+7	14
3	SC Freiburg	6	+9	13
4	Bayer Leverkusen	6	+7	13
5	FSV Mainz 05	6	+4	10
6	SV Elversberg	6	+1	10
7	RB Leipzig	6	+5	9
8	Werder Bremen	6	0	9
9	Hamburger SV	6	−9	9
10	FC Augsburg	6	+4	8
11	Eintracht Frankfurt	6	−6	8
12	1. FC Köln	6	−3	7
13	VfB Stuttgart	6	−2	6
14	1899 Hoffenheim	6	−3	6
15	FC Schalke 04	6	−3	5
16	SC Paderborn 07	6	−4	5
17	Union Berlin	6	−12	5
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	6	−12	0