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Union Berlin v SV Elversberg

Union Berlin

1–0Full time

SV Elversberg

Bundesliga · SAT 10 OCT · An der Alten Försterei

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Union Berlin 1–0 SV Elversberg UNION BERLIN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Union Berlin win~~41%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.526

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.562

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Union Berlin win at 41%.
2′Much as we predicted: Union Berlin was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–25–34
2′KICK-OFF Union Berlin v SV Elversberg
7′🟨 YELLOW · 7' Janik Haberer · Union Berlin
21′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Tim Skarke · Union Berlin
46′SECOND HALF Union Berlin 0–0 SV Elversberg
47′HALF-TIME Union Berlin 0–0 SV Elversberg
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Union Berlin · On: Livan Burcu · Off: Kastriot Imeri
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' SV Elversberg · On: Maurice Krattenmacher · Off: Tom Zimmerschied
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' SV Elversberg · On: Cole Campbell · Off: Noel Futkeu
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' SV Elversberg · On: Nicholas Mickelson · Off: Lasse Günther
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' SV Elversberg · On: David Mokwa · Off: Noah Darvich
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Union Berlin · On: Christopher Trimmel · Off: Michel Aebischer
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Union Berlin · On: M. Gray · Off: Woo-Yeong Jeong Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Union Berlin · On: Oliver Burke · Off: Tim Skarke
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Union Berlin 1–0 SV Elversberg
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Union Berlin 1–0 SV Elversberg · Livan Burcu
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' SV Elversberg · On: Frederik Schmahl · Off: Luca Sirch
90′🟨 YELLOW · 7' Janik Haberer · Union Berlin
90′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Tim Skarke · Union Berlin
90′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Union Berlin · On: Livan Burcu · Off: Kastriot Imeri
90′SUBSTITUTION · 59' SV Elversberg · On: Maurice Krattenmacher · Off: Tom Zimmerschied
90′SUBSTITUTION · 70' SV Elversberg · On: Cole Campbell · Off: Noel Futkeu
90′SUBSTITUTION · 71' SV Elversberg · On: Nicholas Mickelson · Off: Lasse Günther
90′SUBSTITUTION · 71' SV Elversberg · On: David Mokwa · Off: Noah Darvich
90′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Union Berlin · On: Christopher Trimmel · Off: Michel Aebischer
90′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Union Berlin · On: M. Gray · Off: Woo-Yeong Jeong Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Union Berlin · On: Oliver Burke · Off: Tim Skarke
90′⚽ GOAL · 81' Union Berlin 1–0 SV Elversberg · Livan Burcu
90′SUBSTITUTION · 86' SV Elversberg · On: Frederik Schmahl · Off: Luca Sirch
92′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Maurice Krattenmacher · SV Elversberg
FTFULL TIME Union Berlin 1–0 SV Elversberg
FTUnion Berlin 1–0 SV Elversberg · Union Berlin win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Union Berlin win41%

Draw26%

SV Elversberg win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Union Berlin’s Marie-Louise Eta: ‘I wanted to impress through my work, not because I am a woman’The Guardian · 4 days ago · Union Berlin

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:30

Venue · An der Alten Försterei

Referee · Tobias Reichel

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Union Berlin

4-2-3-1

1 F. Ronnow

19 J. Haberer

4 Z. Van Den Bosch

2 F. Uduokhai

15 T. Rothe

13 A. Schafer

8 R. Khedira

20 M. Aebischer

11 Jeong Woo-Yeong

30 K. Imeri

21 T. Skarke

Coach · Mauro Lustrinelli

Substitutes

31 · M. Raab

28 · C. Trimmel

17 · D. Kohn

14 · L. Querfeld

6 · A. Kemlein

27 · M. Ljubicic

7 · O. Burke

9 · L. Burcu

32 · M. Gray

SV Elversberg

4-2-3-1

20 N. Kristof

26 L. Sirch

19 L. Pinckert

31 M. Rohr

21 L. Gunther

43 F. Keidel

8 L. Poreba

25 L. Petkov

10 N. Darvich

29 T. Zimmerschied

9 N. Futkeu

Coach · Vincent Wagner

Substitutes

28 · T. Boss

2 · N. Mickelson

3 · F. Le Joncour

6 · A. Conde

17 · F. Schmahl

7 · M. Krattenmacher

24 · L. Schnellbacher

39 · C. Campbell

42 · D. Mokwa Ntusu

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Union Berlin

4-2-3-1

1 F. Ronnow

19 J. Haberer

4 Z. Van Den Bosch

2 F. Uduokhai

15 T. Rothe

13 A. Schafer

8 R. Khedira

20 M. Aebischer

11 Jeong Woo-Yeong

30 K. Imeri

21 T. Skarke

Coach · Mauro Lustrinelli

Substitutes

31 · M. Raab

28 · C. Trimmel

17 · D. Kohn

14 · L. Querfeld

6 · A. Kemlein

27 · M. Ljubicic

7 · O. Burke

9 · L. Burcu

32 · M. Gray

SV Elversberg

4-2-3-1

20 N. Kristof

26 L. Sirch

19 L. Pinckert

31 M. Rohr

21 L. Gunther

43 F. Keidel

8 L. Poreba

25 L. Petkov

10 N. Darvich

29 T. Zimmerschied

9 N. Futkeu

Coach · Vincent Wagner

Substitutes

28 · T. Boss

2 · N. Mickelson

3 · F. Le Joncour

6 · A. Conde

17 · F. Schmahl

7 · M. Krattenmacher

24 · L. Schnellbacher

39 · C. Campbell

42 · D. Mokwa Ntusu

Our number · union berlin winPublished 10 Oct 14:40

41% The market39%

Us41%

~~Market~~39%

We make Union Berlin a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · union berlin win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 41% to 39% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Union Berlin win	41%	39%	+2
Draw	26%	27%	−1
SV Elversberg win	33%	34%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	57%	59%	−2
Both teams to score	60%	63%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	81%	80%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	35%	38%	−3
Union Berlin or draw	67%	66%	+1
Union Berlin clean sheet	25%	–	–
SV Elversberg clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 6.5 6.0 5.0 2.4 1 6.9 12.1 7.7 3.6 2 6.4 8.6 6.0 2.8 3 3.4 4.6 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Union Berlin down, SV Elversberg across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,577 Bundesliga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 78.4% of games this season, across 37 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Union Berlin at home: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). SV Elversberg away: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Union Berlin, 1.40 for SV Elversberg. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 14:33. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Bundesliga

UNION BERLIN

WWDLLL3–1 · 4–0 · 3–3 · 0–4 · 1–3 · 0–7

SV ELVERSBERG

DLWWLD2–2 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 4–3 · 1–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Borussia Dortmund	5	+7	13
2	Bayern München	4	+12	10
3	SC Freiburg	4	+9	10
4	Werder Bremen	5	0	8
5	FC Augsburg	4	+5	7
6	Bayer Leverkusen	4	+5	7
7	FSV Mainz 05	4	+4	7
8	SV Elversberg	4	+1	7
9	RB Leipzig	4	+4	6
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	4	−1	5
11	FC Schalke 04	4	−1	5
12	SC Paderborn 07	4	−2	4
13	1. FC Köln	4	−3	4
14	1899 Hoffenheim	4	−3	3
15	VfB Stuttgart	4	−3	3
16	Hamburger SV	4	−11	3
17	Union Berlin	4	−13	1
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	4	−10	0