SV Elversberg v FSV Mainz 05 prediction · Bundesliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SV ElversbergDrawFSV Mainz 05

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:30

Before kick-off · Match result · FSV Mainz 05 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with FSV Mainz 05 just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: SV Elversberg 37%, draw 25%, FSV Mainz 05 38%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on SV Elversberg v FSV Mainz 05Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

SV Elversberg win37%

Draw25%

FSV Mainz 05 win38%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 19:30

RoundMatchday 8

VenueWaldstadion Kaiserlinde

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SV Elversberg

FSV Mainz 05

6Days since last match6

Last match: 24 Oct · the German Bundesliga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	FSV Mainz 05	7	+3	10
8	SV Elversberg	7	−3	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fsv mainz 05 winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · updated 25 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

38% The market46%

Us38%

~~Market~~46%

We make FSV Mainz 05 a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · SV Elversberg v FSV Mainz 05~~1.61 – 1.62

~~Form · last six in Bundesliga this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 10~~8 v 7

~~The market · FSV Mainz 05 win~~46% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FSV Mainz 05 win The market, margin stripped

Published at 36%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SV Elversberg win	37%	29%	+8
Draw	25%	25%	0
FSV Mainz 05 win	38%	46%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	62%	62%	0
Both teams to score	64%	64%	0
Over 1.5 goals	84%	81%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	40%	42%	−2
SV Elversberg or draw	62%	54%	+8
SV Elversberg clean sheet	20%	–	–
FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 5.1 5.6 5.2 2.9 1 5.5 11.1 8.2 4.4 2 5.2 8.1 6.5 3.5 3 2.8 4.4 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SV Elversberg down, FSV Mainz 05 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,601 Bundesliga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.5% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SV Elversberg at home: 2.25 scored, 2.25 conceded a game (last 4). FSV Mainz 05 away: 2.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for SV Elversberg, 1.62 for FSV Mainz 05. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SVE 0–1 FSV · SVE 1–1 FSV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Bundesliga this season · since 5 Sept

SV ELVERSBERG

WLDLWL4–3 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 4–3 · 0–4

FSV MAINZ 05

WLWLWL5–0 · 1–3 · 4–3 · 3–4 · 1–0 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Borussia Dortmund	7	+8	17
2	Bayern München	6	+17	14
3	SC Freiburg	6	+9	13
4	Bayer Leverkusen	6	+7	13
5	RB Leipzig	7	+9	12
6	Werder Bremen	7	+1	12
7	FSV Mainz 05	7	+3	10
8	SV Elversberg	7	−3	10
9	FC Augsburg	7	+4	9
10	Hamburger SV	7	−10	9
11	1. FC Köln	7	−3	8
12	SC Paderborn 07	7	−3	8
13	Eintracht Frankfurt	7	−7	8
14	1899 Hoffenheim	6	−3	6
15	VfB Stuttgart	7	−3	6
16	FC Schalke 04	7	−3	6
17	Union Berlin	7	−12	6
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	7	−11	3