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SV Elversberg v FC Augsburg
SV Elversberg
FC AugsburgBundesliga · SAT 17 OCT · Ursapharm-Arena an der Kaiserlinde
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said SV Elversberg win at 45%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: SV Elversberg 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–26–30
- 1′KICK-OFF SV Elversberg v FC Augsburg
- 4′We said SV Elversberg at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–16–13
- 4′⚽ GOAL · 4' SV Elversberg 1–0 FC Augsburg
- 4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' SV Elversberg win: 45% at kick-off, 70% now
- 5′SV Elversberg find the net on 4′. 1–0. 1–0 · 70–16–13
- 6′We said SV Elversberg at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 2–0 · 87–9–4
- 6′PENALTY MISSED · 4' SV Elversberg
- 6′⚽ GOAL · 6' SV Elversberg 2–0 FC Augsburg
- 6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' SV Elversberg win: 45% at kick-off, 87% now
- 7′PENALTY · 2' SV Elversberg
- 8′Łukasz Poreba scores for SV Elversberg on 7′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 87–9–4
- 27′We said SV Elversberg at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 3–0 · 97–2–1
- 27′⚽ GOAL · 27' SV Elversberg 3–0 FC Augsburg
- 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' SV Elversberg win: 45% at kick-off, 97% now
- 29′28′: Maximilian Rohr on the scoresheet for SV Elversberg, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 97–2–1
- 31′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Han-Noah Massengo · FC Augsburg
- 31′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Rodrigo Ribeiro · FC Augsburg
- 38′28′: Maximilian Rohr on the scoresheet for SV Elversberg, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 98–2–0
- 39′We said SV Elversberg at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 3–0 · 98–2–0
- 41′SUBSTITUTION · 40' SV Elversberg · On: Luca Sirch · Off: Jan Gyamerah
- 41′SUBSTITUTION · 40' SV Elversberg · On: Frederik Schmahl · Off: Noah Darvich
- 45′16 shots for FC Augsburg, 10 the other way, and they still trail 3–1. 3–1 · 92–6–2
- 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FC Augsburg · On: Anton Kade · Off: Marius Wolf
- 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FC Augsburg · On: Michael Gregoritsch · Off: Rodrigo Ribeiro
- 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FC Augsburg · On: Jeffrey Gouweleeuw · Off: Juma Bah
- 53′We said SV Elversberg at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 3–1 · 94–5–1
- 53′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 92–6–2
- 53′⚽ GOAL · 53' SV Elversberg 3–1 FC Augsburg
- 53′HALF-TIME SV Elversberg 3–1 FC Augsburg
- 53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Jeffrey Gouweleeuw · FC Augsburg
- 53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Chrislain Matsima · FC Augsburg
- 54′FC Augsburg have had 15 attempts to 10 and it is still 3–1. 3–1 · 94–5–1
- 54′FC Augsburg pull one back on 45′ through Fabian Rieder. 3–1. 3–1 · 94–5–1
- 54′SECOND HALF SV Elversberg 3–1 FC Augsburg
- 55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Felix Keidel · SV Elversberg
- 69′20 shots for FC Augsburg, 13 the other way, and they still trail 3–1. 3–1 · 97–3–0
- 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' FC Augsburg · On: Mert Kömür · Off: Arijon Ibrahimovic
- 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' FC Augsburg · On: Seol Young-woo · Off: Robin Fellhauer
- 76′We said SV Elversberg at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 3–2 · 85–13–2
- 76′5 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 85–13–2
- 76′⚽ GOAL · 76' SV Elversberg 3–2 FC Augsburg
- 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' SV Elversberg win: 45% at kick-off, 85% now
- 77′Michael Gregoritsch scores for FC Augsburg on 76′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 86–13–1
- 77′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Lukas Pinckert · SV Elversberg
- 79′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 99–1–0
- 79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' SV Elversberg · On: Noel Futkeu · Off: David Mokwa
- 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' SV Elversberg · On: Raif Adam · Off: Maurice Krattenmacher
- 79′⚽ GOAL · 79' SV Elversberg 4–2 FC Augsburg
- 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' SV Elversberg win: 45% at kick-off, 99% now
- 80′79′: Raif Adam on the scoresheet for SV Elversberg. 3–2 · 88–11–1
- 81′24 shots for FC Augsburg, 15 the other way, and they still trail 3–2. 3–2 · 89–10–1
- 81′GOAL DISALLOWED · 81' SV Elversberg
- 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' SV Elversberg win: 45% at kick-off, 89% now
- 86′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Nicolas Kristof · SV Elversberg
- 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' SV Elversberg win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
- 89′We said SV Elversberg at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–2 · 100–0–0
- 89′⚽ GOAL · 89' SV Elversberg 4–2 FC Augsburg
- 90′89′: Frederik Schmahl on the scoresheet for SV Elversberg. 4–3 · 96–4–0
- 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' SV Elversberg 4–3 FC Augsburg
- 91′7 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 4–3 · 97–3–0
- 91′FC Augsburg pull one back on 90′ through Mert Kömür. 4–3. 4–3 · 97–3–0
- 94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' SV Elversberg · On: Amara Condé · Off: Felix Keidel
- 97′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' Frederik Schmahl · SV Elversberg
- 99′4–3 at the end. Our 45% on SV Elversberg comes in. 4–3 · 100–0–0
- 99′PENALTY MISSED · 90+8' Noel Futkeu · SV Elversberg
- FTFULL TIME SV Elversberg 4–3 FC Augsburg
- FTSV Elversberg 4–3 FC Augsburg · SV Elversberg win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassSV Elversberg are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: SV Elversberg 45%, draw 26%, FC Augsburg 30%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 61%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
SV Elversberg win45%
FC Augsburg win30%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:30
RoundMatchday 6
VenueUrsapharm-Arena an der Kaiserlinde
RefereeFlorian Exner
Match timeline
All events
SV ElversbergMIN
FC AugsburgEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
SV Elversberg
4-2-3-1
FC Augsburg
3-4-2-1
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
SV Elversberg
FC Augsburg
Last match: 10 Oct · the German Bundesliga
Last match: 10 Oct · the German Bundesliga
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
SV Elversberg
4-2-3-1
20 N. Kristof
30 J. Gyamerah
19 L. Pinckert
31 M. Rohr
21 L. Gunther
43 F. Keidel
8 L. Poreba
25 L. Petkov
10 N. Darvich
7 M. Krattenmacher
42 D. Mokwa Ntusu
Coach · Vincent Wagner
Substitutes
28 · T. Boss
2 · N. Mickelson
26 · L. Sirch
3 · F. Le Joncour
6 · A. Conde
17 · F. Schmahl
15 · R. Adam
24 · L. Schnellbacher
9 · N. Futkeu
FC Augsburg
3-4-2-1
1 F. Dahmen
35 J. Bah
5 C. Matsima
2 C. Brackelmann
27 M. Wolf
4 H. Massengo
32 F. Rieder
16 H. Behrens
19 R. Fellhauer
21 A. Ibrahimovic
9 R. Ribeiro
Coach · Manuel Baum
Substitutes
22 · N. Labrovic
6 · J. Gouweleeuw
7 · Seol Young-Woo
37 · T. Schnitzer
14 · Y. Keitel
10 · M. Komur
39 · U. Ogundu
11 · M. Gregoritsch
30 · A. Kade
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
SV Elversberg
4-2-3-1
20 N. Kristof
30 J. Gyamerah
19 L. Pinckert
31 M. Rohr
21 L. Gunther
43 F. Keidel
8 L. Poreba
25 L. Petkov
10 N. Darvich
7 M. Krattenmacher
42 D. Mokwa Ntusu
Coach · Vincent Wagner
Substitutes
28 · T. Boss
2 · N. Mickelson
26 · L. Sirch
3 · F. Le Joncour
6 · A. Conde
17 · F. Schmahl
15 · R. Adam
24 · L. Schnellbacher
9 · N. Futkeu
FC Augsburg
3-4-2-1
1 F. Dahmen
35 J. Bah
5 C. Matsima
2 C. Brackelmann
27 M. Wolf
4 H. Massengo
32 F. Rieder
16 H. Behrens
19 R. Fellhauer
21 A. Ibrahimovic
9 R. Ribeiro
Coach · Manuel Baum
Substitutes
22 · N. Labrovic
6 · J. Gouweleeuw
7 · Seol Young-Woo
37 · T. Schnitzer
14 · Y. Keitel
10 · M. Komur
39 · U. Ogundu
11 · M. Gregoritsch
30 · A. Kade
We make SV Elversberg a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 38% to 39% in the same time.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| SV Elversberg win | 45% | 39% | +6 |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 0 |
| FC Augsburg win | 30% | 35% | −5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 64% | −6 |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 66% | −5 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | 84% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 43% | −7 |
| SV Elversberg or draw | 70% | 65% | +5 |
| SV Elversberg clean sheet | 27% | – | – |
| FC Augsburg clean sheet | 19% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2021/22No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Bundesliga this season · since 29 Aug
SV ELVERSBERG
FC AUGSBURG
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 5 | +10 | 13 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern München | 5 | +12 | 11 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | +6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | +10 | 9 |
| 6 | FC Augsburg | 5 | +5 | 8 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 6 | −6 | 8 |
| 9 | FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | +3 | 7 |
| 10 | SV Elversberg | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | 1. FC Köln | 6 | −3 | 7 |
| 12 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | −1 | 6 |
| 13 | Hamburger SV | 5 | −10 | 6 |
| 14 | FC Schalke 04 | 5 | −2 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn 07 | 5 | −4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | −12 | 4 |
| 17 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | −4 | 3 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | −11 | 0 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
SC Freiburg
Borussia Dortmund
Bayern München
Bayer Leverkusen
RB Leipzig
Werder Bremen
Eintracht Frankfurt
FSV Mainz 05
1. FC Köln
VfB Stuttgart
Hamburger SV
FC Schalke 04
SC Paderborn 07
Union Berlin
1899 Hoffenheim
Borussia Mönchengladbach