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SV Elversberg v FC Augsburg

SV Elversberg
4–3Full time
FC Augsburg

Bundesliga · SAT 17 OCT · Ursapharm-Arena an der Kaiserlinde

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28
SV Elversberg 4–3 FC Augsburg SV ELVERSBERG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said SV Elversberg win45%
The market said39%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.459
The market’s Brier score0.567

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay26 notes · 41 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said SV Elversberg win at 45%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: SV Elversberg 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–26–30
  3. 1′KICK-OFF SV Elversberg v FC Augsburg
  4. 4′We said SV Elversberg at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–16–13
  5. 4′⚽ GOAL · 4' SV Elversberg 1–0 FC Augsburg
  6. 4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' SV Elversberg win: 45% at kick-off, 70% now
  7. 5′SV Elversberg find the net on 4′. 1–0. 1–0 · 70–16–13
  8. 6′We said SV Elversberg at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 2–0 · 87–9–4
  9. 6′PENALTY MISSED · 4' SV Elversberg
  10. 6′⚽ GOAL · 6' SV Elversberg 2–0 FC Augsburg
  11. 6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' SV Elversberg win: 45% at kick-off, 87% now
  12. 7′PENALTY · 2' SV Elversberg
  13. 8′Łukasz Poreba scores for SV Elversberg on 7′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 87–9–4
  14. 27′We said SV Elversberg at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 3–0 · 97–2–1
  15. 27′⚽ GOAL · 27' SV Elversberg 3–0 FC Augsburg
  16. 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' SV Elversberg win: 45% at kick-off, 97% now
  17. 29′28′: Maximilian Rohr on the scoresheet for SV Elversberg, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 97–2–1
  18. 31′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Han-Noah Massengo · FC Augsburg
  19. 31′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Rodrigo Ribeiro · FC Augsburg
  20. 38′28′: Maximilian Rohr on the scoresheet for SV Elversberg, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 98–2–0
  21. 39′We said SV Elversberg at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 3–0 · 98–2–0
  22. 41′SUBSTITUTION · 40' SV Elversberg · On: Luca Sirch · Off: Jan Gyamerah
  23. 41′SUBSTITUTION · 40' SV Elversberg · On: Frederik Schmahl · Off: Noah Darvich
  24. 45′16 shots for FC Augsburg, 10 the other way, and they still trail 3–1. 3–1 · 92–6–2
  25. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FC Augsburg · On: Anton Kade · Off: Marius Wolf
  26. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FC Augsburg · On: Michael Gregoritsch · Off: Rodrigo Ribeiro
  27. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FC Augsburg · On: Jeffrey Gouweleeuw · Off: Juma Bah
  28. 53′We said SV Elversberg at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 3–1 · 94–5–1
  29. 53′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 92–6–2
  30. 53′⚽ GOAL · 53' SV Elversberg 3–1 FC Augsburg
  31. 53′HALF-TIME SV Elversberg 3–1 FC Augsburg
  32. 53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Jeffrey Gouweleeuw · FC Augsburg
  33. 53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Chrislain Matsima · FC Augsburg
  34. 54′FC Augsburg have had 15 attempts to 10 and it is still 3–1. 3–1 · 94–5–1
  35. 54′FC Augsburg pull one back on 45′ through Fabian Rieder. 3–1. 3–1 · 94–5–1
  36. 54′SECOND HALF SV Elversberg 3–1 FC Augsburg
  37. 55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Felix Keidel · SV Elversberg
  38. 69′20 shots for FC Augsburg, 13 the other way, and they still trail 3–1. 3–1 · 97–3–0
  39. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' FC Augsburg · On: Mert Kömür · Off: Arijon Ibrahimovic
  40. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' FC Augsburg · On: Seol Young-woo · Off: Robin Fellhauer
  41. 76′We said SV Elversberg at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 3–2 · 85–13–2
  42. 76′5 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 85–13–2
  43. 76′⚽ GOAL · 76' SV Elversberg 3–2 FC Augsburg
  44. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' SV Elversberg win: 45% at kick-off, 85% now
  45. 77′Michael Gregoritsch scores for FC Augsburg on 76′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 86–13–1
  46. 77′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Lukas Pinckert · SV Elversberg
  47. 79′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 99–1–0
  48. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' SV Elversberg · On: Noel Futkeu · Off: David Mokwa
  49. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' SV Elversberg · On: Raif Adam · Off: Maurice Krattenmacher
  50. 79′⚽ GOAL · 79' SV Elversberg 4–2 FC Augsburg
  51. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' SV Elversberg win: 45% at kick-off, 99% now
  52. 80′79′: Raif Adam on the scoresheet for SV Elversberg. 3–2 · 88–11–1
  53. 81′24 shots for FC Augsburg, 15 the other way, and they still trail 3–2. 3–2 · 89–10–1
  54. 81′GOAL DISALLOWED · 81' SV Elversberg
  55. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' SV Elversberg win: 45% at kick-off, 89% now
  56. 86′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Nicolas Kristof · SV Elversberg
  57. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' SV Elversberg win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
  58. 89′We said SV Elversberg at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–2 · 100–0–0
  59. 89′⚽ GOAL · 89' SV Elversberg 4–2 FC Augsburg
  60. 90′89′: Frederik Schmahl on the scoresheet for SV Elversberg. 4–3 · 96–4–0
  61. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' SV Elversberg 4–3 FC Augsburg
  62. 91′7 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 4–3 · 97–3–0
  63. 91′FC Augsburg pull one back on 90′ through Mert Kömür. 4–3. 4–3 · 97–3–0
  64. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' SV Elversberg · On: Amara Condé · Off: Felix Keidel
  65. 97′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' Frederik Schmahl · SV Elversberg
  66. 99′4–3 at the end. Our 45% on SV Elversberg comes in. 4–3 · 100–0–0
  67. 99′PENALTY MISSED · 90+8' Noel Futkeu · SV Elversberg
  68. FTFULL TIME SV Elversberg 4–3 FC Augsburg
  69. FTSV Elversberg 4–3 FC Augsburg · SV Elversberg win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SV Elversberg are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SV Elversberg 45%, draw 26%, FC Augsburg 30%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on SV Elversberg v FC AugsburgBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

SV Elversberg win45%
Draw26%
FC Augsburg win30%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 6

VenueUrsapharm-Arena an der Kaiserlinde

RefereeFlorian Exner

Line-ups

SV Elversberg

4-2-3-1

FC Augsburg

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SV Elversberg

FC Augsburg

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · the German Bundesliga

Last match: 10 Oct · the German Bundesliga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6FC Augsburg5+58
10SV Elversberg507

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

SV Elversberg

4-2-3-1

20 N. Kristof

30 J. Gyamerah

19 L. Pinckert

31 M. Rohr

21 L. Gunther

43 F. Keidel

8 L. Poreba

25 L. Petkov

10 N. Darvich

7 M. Krattenmacher

42 D. Mokwa Ntusu

Coach · Vincent Wagner

Substitutes

28 · T. Boss

2 · N. Mickelson

26 · L. Sirch

3 · F. Le Joncour

6 · A. Conde

17 · F. Schmahl

15 · R. Adam

24 · L. Schnellbacher

9 · N. Futkeu

FC Augsburg

3-4-2-1

1 F. Dahmen

35 J. Bah

5 C. Matsima

2 C. Brackelmann

27 M. Wolf

4 H. Massengo

32 F. Rieder

16 H. Behrens

19 R. Fellhauer

21 A. Ibrahimovic

9 R. Ribeiro

Coach · Manuel Baum

Substitutes

22 · N. Labrovic

6 · J. Gouweleeuw

7 · Seol Young-Woo

37 · T. Schnitzer

14 · Y. Keitel

10 · M. Komur

39 · U. Ogundu

11 · M. Gregoritsch

30 · A. Kade

Our number · sv elversberg winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
45% The market39%
Us45%
Market39%

We make SV Elversberg a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · SV Elversberg v FC Augsburg1.69 – 1.34
Form · Bundesliga this season · since 29 AugW2 D1 L2 · W2 D2 L1
Table places · points 7 v 810 v 6
The market · SV Elversberg win39% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50% 11 OCT 04:0017 OCT 14:02
Our probability · SV Elversberg win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 38% to 39% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
SV Elversberg win45%39%+6
Draw26%26%0
FC Augsburg win30%35%−5
Over 2.5 goals58%64%−6
Both teams to score61%66%−5
Over 1.5 goals81%84%−3
Over 3.5 goals36%43%−7
SV Elversberg or draw70%65%+5
SV Elversberg clean sheet27%––
FC Augsburg clean sheet19%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%
0123450 6.1 5.5 4.4 1 7.1 11.8 7.2 3.2 2 6.9 9.0 6.0 2.7 3 3.9 5.1 3.4 4 2.2 5
under 2% 5% 12%+SV Elversberg down, FC Augsburg across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Bundesliga this season · since 29 Aug

SV ELVERSBERG

WWLDL3–2 · 4–3 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1

FC AUGSBURG

WWDLD3–0 · 4–1 · 2–2 · 2–3 · 2–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1SC Freiburg5+1013
2Borussia Dortmund5+713
3Bayern München5+1211
4Bayer Leverkusen5+610
5RB Leipzig5+109
6FC Augsburg5+58
7Werder Bremen508
8Eintracht Frankfurt6−68
9FSV Mainz 055+37
10SV Elversberg507
111. FC Köln6−37
12VfB Stuttgart5−16
13Hamburger SV5−106
14FC Schalke 045−25
15SC Paderborn 075−44
16Union Berlin5−124
171899 Hoffenheim5−43
18Borussia Mönchengladbach5−110

The competition's standings before kick-off.