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SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart

SC Paderborn 07

0–2Full time

VfB Stuttgart

Bundesliga · SAT 10 OCT · Home Deluxe Arena

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

SC Paderborn 07 0–2 VfB Stuttgart VFB STUTTGART WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said VfB Stuttgart win~~44%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.477

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.237

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said VfB Stuttgart win at 44%.
2′Much as we predicted: VfB Stuttgart was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 31–25–45
2′KICK-OFF SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart
20′7.0 shots for VfB Stuttgart, 2.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 30–28–42
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' SC Paderborn 07 0–1 VfB Stuttgart
24′⚽ GOAL · 25' SC Paderborn 07 0–1 VfB Stuttgart · Jeffrey Julian Gaston Chabot
25′VfB Stuttgart ahead on 25′ through Jeffrey Julian Gaston Chabot. 0–1. 0–1 · 10–19–71
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' VfB Stuttgart win: 44% at kick-off, 71% now
27′We published VfB Stuttgart at 44%. Our model now makes it 71%. 0–1 · 10–19–71
33′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 9–19–71
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Marvin Pieringer · SC Paderborn 07
46′HALF-TIME SC Paderborn 07 0–1 VfB Stuttgart
46′SECOND HALF SC Paderborn 07 0–1 VfB Stuttgart
69′SUBSTITUTION · 70' SC Paderborn 07 · On: Steffen Tigges · Off: Stefano Marino Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 70' SC Paderborn 07 · On: Rayan Philippe · Off: Marvin Pieringer Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 72' VfB Stuttgart · On: Finn Jeltsch · Off: Jeffrey Julian Gaston Chabot Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' VfB Stuttgart · On: Dženan Pejčinović · Off: Ermedin Demirović Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' VfB Stuttgart · On: Bilal El Khannouss · Off: Jamie Leweling Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' SC Paderborn 07 · On: Oliver Batista Meier · Off: Laurin Ulrich Corrected
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' SC Paderborn 07 0–2 VfB Stuttgart · Jeffrey Julian Gaston Chabot
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' SC Paderborn 07 0–2 VfB Stuttgart · Chris Führich
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' SC Paderborn 07 · On: Felix Götze · Off: Mattes Hansen Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' SC Paderborn 07 · On: Jonah Sticker · Off: Tjark Scheller Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' VfB Stuttgart · On: Grischa Prömel · Off: Deniz Undav Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' VfB Stuttgart · On: Leo Sauer · Off: Chris Führich Corrected
91′⚽ GOAL · 25' SC Paderborn 07 0–2 VfB Stuttgart · Jeffrey Julian Gaston Chabot (assist Angelo Stiller)
91′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Marvin Pieringer · SC Paderborn 07
91′SUBSTITUTION · 70' SC Paderborn 07 · On: Steffen Tigges · Off: Stefano Marino Corrected
91′SUBSTITUTION · 70' SC Paderborn 07 · On: Rayan Philippe · Off: Marvin Pieringer Corrected
91′SUBSTITUTION · 72' VfB Stuttgart · On: Finn Jeltsch · Off: Jeffrey Julian Gaston Chabot Corrected
91′SUBSTITUTION · 77' VfB Stuttgart · On: Dženan Pejčinović · Off: Ermedin Demirović Corrected
91′SUBSTITUTION · 77' VfB Stuttgart · On: Bilal El Khannouss · Off: Jamie Leweling Corrected
91′SUBSTITUTION · 80' SC Paderborn 07 · On: Oliver Batista Meier · Off: Laurin Ulrich Corrected
91′⚽ GOAL · 83' SC Paderborn 07 0–2 VfB Stuttgart · Chris Führich (assist Angelo Stiller)
91′SUBSTITUTION · 85' SC Paderborn 07 · On: Felix Götze · Off: Mattes Hansen Corrected
91′SUBSTITUTION · 85' SC Paderborn 07 · On: Jonah Sticker · Off: Tjark Scheller Corrected
91′SUBSTITUTION · 85' VfB Stuttgart · On: Grischa Prömel · Off: Deniz Undav Corrected
91′SUBSTITUTION · 85' VfB Stuttgart · On: Leo Sauer · Off: Chris Führich Corrected
FTFULL TIME SC Paderborn 07 0–2 VfB Stuttgart
FTSC Paderborn 07 0–2 VfB Stuttgart · VfB Stuttgart win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

SC Paderborn 07 win30%

Draw26%

VfB Stuttgart win44%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:30

Venue · Home Deluxe Arena

Referee · Felix Zwayer

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

SC Paderborn 07

3-5-2

15 N. Noll

21 J. ter Horst

25 T. Scheller

22 M. Hansen

17 L. Curda

28 L. Ulrich

5 S. Castaneda

40 G. Vidovic

23 R. Obermair

18 M. Pieringer

30 S. Marino

Coach · Ralf Kettemann

Substitutes

1 · M. Schubert

3 · J. Sticker

20 · F. Gotze

6 · T. Baack

7 · O. Batista Meier

2 · R. Muller

11 · S. Michel

27 · S. Tigges

9 · R. Philippe

VfB Stuttgart

3-4-2-1

41 D. Seimen

3 R. Hendriks

24 J. Chabot

7 M. Mittelstadt

4 J. Vagnoman

16 A. Karazor

6 A. Stiller

10 C. Fuhrich

18 J. Leweling

26 D. Undav

9 E. Demirovic

Coach · Sebastian Hoeness

Substitutes

1 · F. Bredlow

20 · L. Stergiou

22 · L. Assignon

29 · F. Jeltsch

47 · Y. Spalt

21 · G. Promel

11 · B. El Khannouss

44 · L. Sauer

17 · D. Pejcinovic

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

SC Paderborn 07

3-5-2

15 N. Noll

21 J. ter Horst

25 T. Scheller

22 M. Hansen

17 L. Curda

28 L. Ulrich

5 S. Castaneda

40 G. Vidovic

23 R. Obermair

18 M. Pieringer

30 S. Marino

Coach · Ralf Kettemann

Substitutes

1 · M. Schubert

3 · J. Sticker

20 · F. Gotze

6 · T. Baack

7 · O. Batista Meier

2 · R. Muller

11 · S. Michel

27 · S. Tigges

9 · R. Philippe

VfB Stuttgart

3-4-2-1

41 D. Seimen

3 R. Hendriks

24 J. Chabot

7 M. Mittelstadt

4 J. Vagnoman

16 A. Karazor

6 A. Stiller

10 C. Fuhrich

18 J. Leweling

26 D. Undav

9 E. Demirovic

Coach · Sebastian Hoeness

Substitutes

1 · F. Bredlow

20 · L. Stergiou

22 · L. Assignon

29 · F. Jeltsch

47 · Y. Spalt

21 · G. Promel

11 · B. El Khannouss

44 · L. Sauer

17 · D. Pejcinovic

Our number · vfb stuttgart winPublished 10 Oct 14:40

44% The market60%

Us44%

~~Market~~60%

We make VfB Stuttgart a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 17 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · vfb stuttgart win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SC Paderborn 07 win	30%	20%	+10
Draw	26%	20%	+6
VfB Stuttgart win	44%	60%	−17
Over 2.5 goals	56%	73%	−17
Both teams to score	59%	68%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	80%	88%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	34%	54%	−20
SC Paderborn 07 or draw	56%	40%	+17
SC Paderborn 07 clean sheet	20%	–	–
VfB Stuttgart clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 6.7 7.5 7.0 3.9 1 5.9 12.2 8.9 4.9 2.1 2 4.6 7.3 5.8 3.1 3 2.1 3.2 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SC Paderborn 07 down, VfB Stuttgart across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,577 Bundesliga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 78.4% of games this season, across 37 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 3). VfB Stuttgart away: 2.33 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for SC Paderborn 07, 1.63 for VfB Stuttgart. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 14:33. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Bundesliga

SC PADERBORN 07

DDDLLW0–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 3–1

VFB STUTTGART

WDLWLL3–1 · 2–2 · 1–5 · 4–1 · 1–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Borussia Dortmund	5	+7	13
2	Bayern München	4	+12	10
3	SC Freiburg	4	+9	10
4	Werder Bremen	5	0	8
5	FC Augsburg	4	+5	7
6	Bayer Leverkusen	4	+5	7
7	FSV Mainz 05	4	+4	7
8	SV Elversberg	4	+1	7
9	RB Leipzig	4	+4	6
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	4	−1	5
11	FC Schalke 04	4	−1	5
12	SC Paderborn 07	4	−2	4
13	1. FC Köln	4	−3	4
14	1899 Hoffenheim	4	−3	3
15	VfB Stuttgart	4	−3	3
16	Hamburger SV	4	−11	3
17	Union Berlin	4	−13	1
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	4	−10	0