SC Paderborn 07 v Hamburger SV prediction · Bundesliga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 17:24

SC Paderborn 07 1–0 Hamburger SV SC PADERBORN 07 WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SC Paderborn 07 win~~45%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.456

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.516

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said SC Paderborn 07 win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: SC Paderborn 07 was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–28–27
1′KICK-OFF SC Paderborn 07 v Hamburger SV
13′SUBSTITUTION · 13' Hamburger SV · On: Otto Emerson Stange · Off: Fábio Vieira
45′SECOND HALF SC Paderborn 07 0–0 Hamburger SV
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Hamburger SV · On: Terem Moffi · Off: Yussuf Poulsen
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' SC Paderborn 07 win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was SC Paderborn 07 win 38%)
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' SC Paderborn 07 · On: Tom Baack · Off: Gabriel Vidović
48′HALF-TIME SC Paderborn 07 0–0 Hamburger SV
52′We said SC Paderborn 07 at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–44–23
54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Shafiq Nandja · Hamburger SV
55′We expected about 2.6 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 32–46–22
59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Jano ter Horst · SC Paderborn 07
60′We said SC Paderborn 07 at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–50–20
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' SC Paderborn 07 · On: Felix Götze · Off: Jano ter Horst
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' SC Paderborn 07 · On: Marvin Pieringer · Off: Steffen Tigges
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' SC Paderborn 07 win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
68′We said SC Paderborn 07 at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–58–17
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' SC Paderborn 07 · On: Rayan Philippe · Off: Laurin Ulrich
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Hamburger SV · On: Albert Sambi Lokonga · Off: Miro Muheim
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Hamburger SV · On: Albert Grönbaek · Off: Bilal Nadir
75′We said SC Paderborn 07 at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–68–14
75′11 shots for SC Paderborn 07, 5 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 19–68–14
78′13 shots for SC Paderborn 07, 5 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 16–73–12
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' SC Paderborn 07 win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
80′We said SC Paderborn 07 at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–76–10
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' SC Paderborn 07 · On: Sven Michel · Off: Stefano Marino
84′We said SC Paderborn 07 at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–85–7
88′We published SC Paderborn 07 at 45%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–4–0
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' SC Paderborn 07 1–0 Hamburger SV
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' SC Paderborn 07 win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' SC Paderborn 07 win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 88%)
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Albert Sambi Lokonga · Hamburger SV
89′SC Paderborn 07 ahead on 88′ through Rayan Philippe. 1–0. 1–0 · 96–4–0
91′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Hamburger SV · On: Alexander Rossing Lelesiit · Off: Otto Emerson Stange
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Merlin Polzin · Hamburger SV
95′Full time, 1–0. We called SC Paderborn 07 at 45% — that one lands. 1–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME SC Paderborn 07 1–0 Hamburger SV
FTSC Paderborn 07 1–0 Hamburger SV · SC Paderborn 07 win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SC Paderborn 07 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SC Paderborn 07 45%, draw 28%, Hamburger SV 27%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on SC Paderborn 07 v Hamburger SVBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

SC Paderborn 07 win45%

Draw28%

Hamburger SV win27%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 7

VenueHome Deluxe Arena

RefereeMartin Petersen

Line-ups

SC Paderborn 07

3-5-2

Hamburger SV

3-5-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SC Paderborn 07

Hamburger SV

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the German Bundesliga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Hamburger SV	6	−9	9
16	SC Paderborn 07	6	−4	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

SC Paderborn 07

3-5-2

15 N. Noll

21 J. ter Horst

25 T. Scheller

22 M. Hansen

17 L. Curda

28 L. Ulrich

5 S. Castañeda

40 G. Vidović

23 R. Obermair

30 S. Marino

27 S. Tigges

Coach · R. Kettemann

Substitutes

6 · T. Baack

20 · F. Götze

11 · S. Michel

2 · Ruben Müller

9 · R. Philippe

18 · M. Pieringer

1 · M. Schubert

3 · Jonah Benedict Sticker

38 · D. Zeitler

Hamburger SV

3-5-2

1 Daniel Heuer Fernandes

43 S. Nandja

33 S. Bornauw

17 W. Omari

7 Z. El Ouahdi

5 M. Adeline

4 B. Nadir

28 M. Muheim

3 D. Møller Wolfe

20 Fábio Vieira

15 Y. Poulsen

Coach · M. Polzin

Substitutes

38 · Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit

19 · Otto Emerson Stange

12 · S. Tangvik

9 · T. Moffi

6 · A. Sambi Lokonga

37 · L. Lemke

11 · A. Grønbæk

48 · J. Bissi Mouelle

22 · Kofi Jeremy Amoako

Our number · sc paderborn 07 winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

45% The market42%

Us45%

~~Market~~42%

We make SC Paderborn 07 a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · SC Paderborn 07 v Hamburger SV~~1.51 – 1.12

~~Form · Bundesliga this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 5 v 9~~16 v 9

~~The market · SC Paderborn 07 win~~42% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · SC Paderborn 07 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SC Paderborn 07 win	45%	42%	+3
Draw	28%	26%	+2
Hamburger SV win	27%	33%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	49%	60%	−11
Both teams to score	53%	62%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	75%	80%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	27%	39%	−12
SC Paderborn 07 or draw	73%	67%	+6
SC Paderborn 07 clean sheet	33%	–	–
Hamburger SV clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 8.7 7.1 4.6 1 9.8 13.1 6.7 2.6 2 8.1 8.9 5.0 3 4.1 4.5 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SC Paderborn 07 down, Hamburger SV across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,595 Bundesliga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.5% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.12 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.00 scored, 1.25 conceded a game (last 4). Hamburger SV away: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for SC Paderborn 07, 1.12 for Hamburger SV. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.12

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~SCP 2–0 HAM · HAM 2–2 SCP · SCP 1–0 HAM · HAM 1–2 SCP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Bundesliga this season · since 29 Aug

SC PADERBORN 07

DLLWLD0–0 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 2–2

HAMBURGER SV

LLLWWW0–2 · 0–5 · 0–5 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bayern München	6	+17	14
2	Borussia Dortmund	6	+7	14
3	SC Freiburg	6	+9	13
4	Bayer Leverkusen	6	+7	13
5	FSV Mainz 05	6	+4	10
6	SV Elversberg	6	+1	10
7	RB Leipzig	6	+5	9
8	Werder Bremen	6	0	9
9	Hamburger SV	6	−9	9
10	FC Augsburg	6	+4	8
11	Eintracht Frankfurt	6	−6	8
12	1. FC Köln	6	−3	7
13	1899 Hoffenheim	6	−3	6
14	VfB Stuttgart	7	−3	6
15	FC Schalke 04	6	−3	5
16	SC Paderborn 07	6	−4	5
17	Union Berlin	6	−12	5
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	7	−11	3