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SC Freiburg v FC Schalke 04

SC Freiburg

2–1Full time

FC Schalke 04

Bundesliga · SUN 11 OCT · Europa-Park-Stadion

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

SC Freiburg 2–1 FC Schalke 04 SC FREIBURG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SC Freiburg win~~56%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.295

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.295

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 36 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said SC Freiburg win at 56%.
2′Little has changed for our model: SC Freiburg 56% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 57–23–21
9′We said SC Freiburg at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–14–7
11′Maximilian Eggestein scores for SC Freiburg on 10′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–14–7
12′Maximilian Eggestein scores for SC Freiburg on 10′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–14–7
13′We said SC Freiburg at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–14–7
32′30′ and it is 1–1: Kenan Karaman on the scoresheet for FC Schalke 04. 1–1 · 49–30–21
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' SC Freiburg win: 56% at kick-off, 79% now
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' SC Freiburg win: 56% at kick-off, 49% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' SC Freiburg win: 56% at kick-off, 46% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' SC Freiburg win: 56% at kick-off, 47% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' SC Freiburg win: 56% at kick-off, 47% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' SC Freiburg win: 56% at kick-off, 46% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' SC Freiburg win: 56% at kick-off, 46% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' SC Freiburg win: 56% at kick-off, 47% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' SC Freiburg win: 56% at kick-off, 45% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' SC Freiburg win: 56% at kick-off, 47% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' SC Freiburg win: 56% at kick-off, 45% now
45′We said SC Freiburg at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–36–20
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' SC Freiburg win: 56% at kick-off, 45% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' SC Freiburg win: 56% at kick-off, 47% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' SC Freiburg win: 56% at kick-off, 44% now
45′SECOND HALF SC Freiburg 1–1 FC Schalke 04
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' SC Freiburg win: 56% at kick-off, 44% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' SC Freiburg win: 56% at kick-off, 44% now
48′We said SC Freiburg at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 43%. 1–1 · 43–38–19
48′SECOND HALF SC Freiburg 1–1 FC Schalke 04
49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Yuito Suzuki · SC Freiburg
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Matthias Ginter · SC Freiburg
63′🟥 RED CARD · 63' SC Freiburg
64′🟥 RED CARD · 64' Yuito Suzuki · SC Freiburg
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' SC Freiburg · On: Lucas Höler · Off: Igor Matanovic Corrected
68′SUBSTITUTION · 69' SC Freiburg · On: Cyriaque Irié · Off: Jan-Niklas Beste Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' SC Freiburg · On: Keisuke Goto · Off: Yannick Engelhardt Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' FC Schalke 04 · On: Ron Schallenberg · Off: Satoshi Tanaka Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' FC Schalke 04 · On: Edin Džeko · Off: Junior Chukwubuike Adamu Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' FC Schalke 04 · On: Adil Aouchiche · Off: Adrian Tobias Gantenbein Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' FC Schalke 04 · On: Timo Becker · Off: Maximilian Wöber Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' FC Schalke 04 · On: Hwang Hee-Chan · Off: Moussa Sylla Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' SC Freiburg · On: Vincenzo Grifo · Off: Derry Lionel Scherhant Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' SC Freiburg · On: Lukas Kübler · Off: Philipp Treu Corrected
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' SC Freiburg 2–1 FC Schalke 04 · Kenan Karaman
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' SC Freiburg 2–1 FC Schalke 04 · Keisuke Goto
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Hwang Hee-Chan · FC Schalke 04
FTFULL TIME SC Freiburg 2–1 FC Schalke 04
FTSC Freiburg 2–1 FC Schalke 04 · SC Freiburg win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

SC Freiburg win56%

Draw24%

FC Schalke 04 win20%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:30

VenueEuropa-Park-Stadion

RefereeMartin Petersen

Line-ups

SC Freiburg

4-2-3-1

FC Schalke 04

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

SC Freiburg

FC Schalke 04

22Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	SC Freiburg	4	+9	10
12	FC Schalke 04	4	−1	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

FEATURE | Freiburg’s unbeaten start shows their recent success is no coincidenceGet German Football News · 7 hours ago · SC Freiburg, Europa Fc Julian Schuster references Merlin Röhl interview when describing ‘top’ Freiburg cultureGet German Football News · 1 day ago · SC Freiburg, FC Schalke 04, Everton

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

SC Freiburg

4-2-3-1

1 M. Backhaus

29 P. Treu

28 M. Ginter

3 P. Lienhart

33 J. Makengo

8 M. Eggestein

16 Y. Engelhardt

19 J. Beste

14 Y. Suzuki

7 D. Scherhant

31 I. Matanovic

Coach · Julian Schuster

Substitutes

24 · J. Huth

17 · L. Kubler

37 · M. Rosenfelder

30 · C. Gunter

32 · V. Grifo

6 · P. Osterhage

9 · L. Holer

42 · K. Goto

22 · C. Irie

FC Schalke 04

3-4-2-1

1 L. Karius

4 H. Kurucay

25 N. Katic

39 M. Wober

17 A. Gantenbein

23 S. El-Faouzi

13 S. Tanaka

8 R. Gosens

9 M. Sylla

19 K. Karaman

20 J. Adamu

Coach · Miron Muslic

Substitutes

22 · K. Muller

5 · T. Becker

43 · M. Ayhan

33 · V. Becker

6 · R. Schallenberg

24 · A. Aouchiche

29 · J. Dina Ebimbe

10 · E. Dzeko

7 · Hwang Hee-Chan

Our number · sc freiburg winPublished 11 Oct 16:29

56% The market56%

Us56%

~~Market~~56%

We make SC Freiburg a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sc freiburg win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 57% to 56% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SC Freiburg win	56%	56%	0
Draw	24%	24%	0
FC Schalke 04 win	20%	20%	0
Over 2.5 goals	56%	58%	−1
Both teams to score	55%	58%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	80%	79%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	34%	37%	−3
SC Freiburg or draw	80%	80%	0
SC Freiburg clean sheet	35%	–	–
FC Schalke 04 clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.5 4.6 3.0 1 8.9 11.4 5.5 2 9.4 9.6 5.0 3 6.0 6.1 3.2 4 2.9 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SC Freiburg down, FC Schalke 04 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,583 Bundesliga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.7% of games this season, across 43 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SC Freiburg at home: 3.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). FC Schalke 04 away: 1.33 scored, 3.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.90 goals for SC Freiburg, 1.05 for FC Schalke 04. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 16:03. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SCF 4–0 FCS · FCS 0–2 SCF

Form · last six in Bundesliga

SC FREIBURG

LWWWWD2–3 · 4–1 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 5–0 · 2–2

FC SCHALKE 04

DLLDWD2–2 · 2–4 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Borussia Dortmund	5	+7	13
2	Bayern München	5	+12	11
3	SC Freiburg	4	+9	10
4	Bayer Leverkusen	5	+6	10
5	RB Leipzig	5	+10	9
6	FC Augsburg	5	+5	8
7	Werder Bremen	5	0	8
8	FSV Mainz 05	5	+3	7
9	SV Elversberg	5	0	7
10	VfB Stuttgart	5	−1	6
11	Hamburger SV	5	−10	6
12	FC Schalke 04	4	−1	5
13	Eintracht Frankfurt	5	−7	5
14	1. FC Köln	4	−3	4
15	SC Paderborn 07	5	−4	4
16	Union Berlin	5	−12	4
17	1899 Hoffenheim	5	−4	3
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	4	−10	0