Home › Football › Bundesliga › SC Freiburg v Bayern München

SC Freiburg v Bayern München

SC Freiburg

16:30Upcoming

Bayern München

Bundesliga · SUN 25 OCT · Europa-Park-Stadion

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SC FreiburgDrawBayern München

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Bayern München 62%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bayern München are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SC Freiburg 18%, draw 19%, Bayern München 62%. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on SC Freiburg v Bayern MünchenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

SC Freiburg win18%

Draw19%

Bayern München win62%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 7

VenueEuropa-Park-Stadion

RefereeFelix Zwayer

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SC Freiburg

Bayern München

3Days since last match4

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

Last match: 21 Oct · UEFA Champions League

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Vincent Kompany health update as Bayern Munich give recovery timeline on hospitalised bossMirror Football · 24 Oct 20:14 · Bayern München

Vincent Kompany sidelined 'for weeks' after collapse at Bayern Munich training groundEvening Standard · 24 Oct 11:51 · Bayern München

MATCH REPORT | Monaco ease past Freiburg in Conference League to return to winning waysGet French Football News · 23 Oct 00:56 · Monaco, SC Freiburg

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bayern münchen winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 19 Oct 03:50 · locked at kick-off

62% The market69%

Us62%

~~Market~~69%

We make Bayern München a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 69%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–2.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · SC Freiburg v Bayern München~~1.31 – 2.49

~~Form · Bundesliga this season · since 28 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 13 v 14~~3 v 1

~~The market · Bayern München win~~69% · ours 62%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bayern München win The market, margin stripped

Published at 63%, 62% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 69% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SC Freiburg win	18%	14%	+4
Draw	19%	17%	+2
Bayern München win	62%	69%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	73%	76%	−3
Both teams to score	67%	67%	0
Over 1.5 goals	90%	90%	0
Over 3.5 goals	53%	58%	−5
SC Freiburg or draw	38%	31%	+7
SC Freiburg clean sheet	8%	–	–
Bayern München clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.0%

0123450 3.0 4.9 6.9 5.7 3.6 1 2.3 8.0 9.0 7.4 4.6 2.32 4.8 5.9 4.9 3.0 3 2.1 2.6 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SC Freiburg down, Bayern München across0–5 goals a side shown (95.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,601 Bundesliga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.5% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.90 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SC Freiburg at home: 3.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Bayern München away: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for SC Freiburg, 2.49 for Bayern München. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.90

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SCF 2–3 BAY · BAY 6–2 SCF · SCF 1–2 BAY · BAY 2–0 SCF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Bundesliga this season · since 28 Aug

SC FREIBURG

WWWDWL4–1 · 1–0 · 5–0 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–2

BAYERN MÜNCHEN

WDWWDW5–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 7–0 · 2–2 · 6–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bayern München	6	+17	14
2	Borussia Dortmund	6	+7	14
3	SC Freiburg	6	+9	13
4	Bayer Leverkusen	6	+7	13
5	FSV Mainz 05	6	+4	10
6	SV Elversberg	6	+1	10
7	RB Leipzig	6	+5	9
8	Werder Bremen	6	0	9
9	Hamburger SV	6	−9	9
10	FC Augsburg	6	+4	8
11	Eintracht Frankfurt	6	−6	8
12	1. FC Köln	6	−3	7
13	1899 Hoffenheim	6	−3	6
14	VfB Stuttgart	7	−3	6
15	FC Schalke 04	6	−3	5
16	SC Paderborn 07	6	−4	5
17	Union Berlin	6	−12	5
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	7	−11	3