RB Leipzig v SV Elversberg prediction · Bundesliga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 17:24

RB Leipzig 4–0 SV Elversberg RB LEIPZIG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said RB Leipzig win~~63%

~~The market said~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.201

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.168

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said RB Leipzig win at 63%.
1′Little has changed for our model: RB Leipzig 63% before kick-off, 63% now. 0–0 · 63–19–17
1′KICK-OFF RB Leipzig v SV Elversberg
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' RB Leipzig win: 63% at kick-off, 53% now
45′We said RB Leipzig at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 51%. 0–0 · 51–31–18
45′SECOND HALF RB Leipzig 0–0 SV Elversberg
46′HALF-TIME RB Leipzig 0–0 SV Elversberg
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' RB Leipzig · On: Rômulo José Cardoso da Cruz · Off: Andrija Maksimović
48′We said RB Leipzig at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 1–0 · 82–14–4
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' RB Leipzig 1–0 SV Elversberg
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' RB Leipzig win: 63% at kick-off, 82% now
50′48′: Tidiam Gomis on the scoresheet for RB Leipzig, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 82–14–4
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' RB Leipzig win: 63% at kick-off, 83% now
61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' SV Elversberg · On: Raif Adam · Off: Jan Gyamerah Corrected
61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' SV Elversberg · On: Raif Adam · Off: Maurice Krattenmacher
61′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Rocco Reitz · RB Leipzig
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' RB Leipzig · On: Brajan Gruda · Off: Rocco Reitz
65′We said RB Leipzig at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–0
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' RB Leipzig 2–0 SV Elversberg
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' RB Leipzig win: 63% at kick-off, 97% now
67′RB Leipzig ahead on 66′ through Rômulo José Cardoso da Cruz. 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' SV Elversberg · On: Noel Futkeu · Off: David Mokwa
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' SV Elversberg · On: Francis Onyeka · Off: Frederik Schmahl
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' RB Leipzig · On: Nicolas Seiwald · Off: Antonio Nusa
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' RB Leipzig · On: Christoph Baumgartner · Off: Ezechiel Banzuzi
75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Lasse Günther · SV Elversberg
82′We said RB Leipzig at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' SV Elversberg · On: Cole Campbell · Off: Lasse Günther
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' RB Leipzig 3–0 SV Elversberg
85′Christoph Baumgartner scores for RB Leipzig on 84′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' RB Leipzig · On: Abdoul Kone · Off: Tidiam Gomis
93′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.7 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' RB Leipzig 4–0 SV Elversberg
95′90′: Rômulo José Cardoso da Cruz on the scoresheet for RB Leipzig, making it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
95′4–0 at the end. Our 63% on RB Leipzig comes in. 4–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME RB Leipzig 4–0 SV Elversberg
FTRB Leipzig 4–0 SV Elversberg · RB Leipzig win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

RB Leipzig are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: RB Leipzig 63%, draw 19%, SV Elversberg 17%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on RB Leipzig v SV ElversbergBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

RB Leipzig win63%

Draw19%

SV Elversberg win17%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 7

VenueLeipzig Red Bull Arena

RefereeBastian Dankert

Line-ups

RB Leipzig

4-5-1

SV Elversberg

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

RB Leipzig

SV Elversberg

3Days since last match7

Last match: 21 Oct · UEFA Champions League

Last match: 17 Oct · the German Bundesliga

4Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	SV Elversberg	6	+1	10
7	RB Leipzig	6	+5	9

In the news

from the pressAll ›

RB Leipzig’s Christoph Baumgartner marks emotional comeback and reunion with Yan DiomandeGet German Football News · 22 Oct 09:29 · RB Leipzig

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

RB Leipzig

4-5-1

1 Ø. Nyland

39 B. Henrichs

4 W. Orbán

3 M. Estève

35 Max Finkgräfe

30 A. Maksimović

20 R. Reitz

21 N. El Aynaoui

6 E. Banzuzi

7 A. Nusa

27 T. Gomis

Coach · M. Demichelis

Substitutes

17 · R. Baku

14 · C. Baumgartner

10 · B. Gruda

2 · A. Koné

23 · C. Lukeba

22 · D. Raum

40 · Rômulo

13 · N. Seiwald

26 · M. Vandevoordt

SV Elversberg

4-2-3-1

20 N. Kristof

30 J. Gyamerah

19 L. Pinckert

31 M. Rohr

21 L. Günther

43 F. Keidel

8 Ł. Poręba

25 L. Petkov

17 F. Schmahl

7 M. Krattenmacher

42 D. Mokwa

Coach · V. Wagner

Substitutes

15 · R. Adam

28 · T. Boss

39 · William Cole Campbell

6 · A. Condé

9 · N. Futkeu

3 · F. Le Joncour

2 · N. Mickelson

40 · Francis-Ikechukwu Onyeka

26 · L. Sirch

Our number · rb leipzig winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

63% The market67%

Us63%

~~Market~~67%

We make RB Leipzig a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · RB Leipzig v SV Elversberg~~2.47 – 1.21

~~Form · Bundesliga this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 10~~7 v 6

~~The market · RB Leipzig win~~67% · ours 63%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · RB Leipzig win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 67% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
RB Leipzig win	63%	67%	−4
Draw	19%	18%	+1
SV Elversberg win	17%	15%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	71%	74%	−3
Both teams to score	64%	67%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	88%	88%	0
Over 3.5 goals	50%	55%	−5
RB Leipzig or draw	83%	85%	−2
RB Leipzig clean sheet	30%	–	–
SV Elversberg clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.0%

0123450 3.4 2.5 1 5.6 8.3 4.6 2 7.6 9.0 5.5 2.3 3 6.2 7.3 4.4 4 3.9 4.5 2.7 5 2.0 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+RB Leipzig down, SV Elversberg across0–5 goals a side shown (95.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,595 Bundesliga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.5% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

RB Leipzig at home: 3.33 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). SV Elversberg away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

2.47 goals for RB Leipzig, 1.21 for SV Elversberg. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Bundesliga this season · since 29 Aug

RB LEIPZIG

WLWLWL3–0 · 1–3 · 5–0 · 0–2 · 6–0 · 1–6

SV ELVERSBERG

WWLDLW3–2 · 4–3 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 4–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bayern München	6	+17	14
2	Borussia Dortmund	6	+7	14
3	SC Freiburg	6	+9	13
4	Bayer Leverkusen	6	+7	13
5	FSV Mainz 05	6	+4	10
6	SV Elversberg	6	+1	10
7	RB Leipzig	6	+5	9
8	Werder Bremen	6	0	9
9	Hamburger SV	6	−9	9
10	FC Augsburg	6	+4	8
11	Eintracht Frankfurt	6	−6	8
12	1. FC Köln	6	−3	7
13	1899 Hoffenheim	6	−3	6
14	VfB Stuttgart	7	−3	6
15	FC Schalke 04	6	−3	5
16	SC Paderborn 07	6	−4	5
17	Union Berlin	6	−12	5
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	7	−11	3