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RB Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt

RB Leipzig

6–0Full time

Eintracht Frankfurt

Bundesliga · SAT 10 OCT · Leipzig Red Bull Arena

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

RB Leipzig 6–0 Eintracht Frankfurt RB LEIPZIG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said RB Leipzig win~~55%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.300

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.238

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 41 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said RB Leipzig win at 55%.
1′Little has changed for our model: RB Leipzig 55% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 56–21–23
1′1′ and it is 1–0: Ezechiel Banzuzi on the scoresheet for RB Leipzig. 1–0 · 77–14–9
2′1′ and it is 1–0: Ezechiel Banzuzi on the scoresheet for RB Leipzig. 1–0 · 77–14–9
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' RB Leipzig win: 55% at kick-off, 56% now
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' RB Leipzig win: 55% at kick-off, 77% now
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' RB Leipzig win: 55% at kick-off, 56% now
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' RB Leipzig win: 55% at kick-off, 77% now
4′RB Leipzig ahead on 5′ through Christopher Nkunku. 2–0. 2–0 · 91–6–3
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' RB Leipzig 2–0 Eintracht Frankfurt · Ezechiel Banzuzi
4′⚽ GOAL · 5' RB Leipzig 2–0 Eintracht Frankfurt · Christopher Nkunku (assist Antonio Nusa)
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' RB Leipzig win: 55% at kick-off, 91% now
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' RB Leipzig win: 55% at kick-off, 77% now
6′RB Leipzig ahead on 5′ through Christopher Nkunku. 2–0. 2–0 · 91–6–3
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' RB Leipzig win: 55% at kick-off, 91% now
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' RB Leipzig win: 55% at kick-off, 77% now
8′We said RB Leipzig at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 2–0 · 91–6–3
9′We said RB Leipzig at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 2–0 · 91–6–3
27′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Neil El Aynaoui · RB Leipzig
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' RB Leipzig 3–0 Eintracht Frankfurt · Christopher Nkunku
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' RB Leipzig 3–0 Eintracht Frankfurt · Christopher Nkunku
42′Christopher Nkunku scores for RB Leipzig on 41′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' RB Leipzig win: 55% at kick-off, 99% now
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' RB Leipzig 4–0 Eintracht Frankfurt · Christopher Nkunku
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' RB Leipzig win: 55% at kick-off, 93% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' RB Leipzig win: 55% at kick-off, 99% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' RB Leipzig win: 55% at kick-off, 93% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' RB Leipzig win: 55% at kick-off, 99% now
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' RB Leipzig 4–0 Eintracht Frankfurt · Christopher Nkunku
45′44′ and it is 4–0: Christopher Nkunku on the scoresheet for RB Leipzig. 4–0 · 100–0–0
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' RB Leipzig win: 55% at kick-off, 93% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' RB Leipzig win: 55% at kick-off, 99% now
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Eintracht Frankfurt · On: Elias Niklas Baum · Off: Robin Koch Corrected
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Eintracht Frankfurt · On: Younes Ebnoutalib · Off: Keita Kosugi Corrected
45′SECOND HALF RB Leipzig 4–0 Eintracht Frankfurt
47′We said RB Leipzig at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
47′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' RB Leipzig win: 55% at kick-off, 99% now
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' RB Leipzig 5–0 Eintracht Frankfurt · Christopher Nkunku
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' RB Leipzig 5–0 Eintracht Frankfurt · Antonio Nusa
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' RB Leipzig · On: Nicolas Seiwald · Off: Neil El Aynaoui Corrected
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' RB Leipzig · On: Benjamin Henrichs · Off: Ridle Baku Corrected
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Elias Niklas Baum · Eintracht Frankfurt
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' RB Leipzig · On: Tidiam Gomis · Off: Christopher Nkunku Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' RB Leipzig · On: Max Finkgräfe · Off: Antonio Nusa Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 73' RB Leipzig · On: Rocco Reitz · Off: Ezechiel Banzuzi Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Eintracht Frankfurt · On: Fares Chaibi · Off: Noel Aseko Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Eintracht Frankfurt · On: Mario Götze · Off: Ritsu Doan Corrected
77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Ansgar Knauff · Eintracht Frankfurt
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Raphael Onyedika Nwadike · Eintracht Frankfurt
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' RB Leipzig 6–0 Eintracht Frankfurt · Antonio Nusa
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' RB Leipzig 6–0 Eintracht Frankfurt · Tidiam Gomis
FTFULL TIME RB Leipzig 6–0 Eintracht Frankfurt
FTRB Leipzig 6–0 Eintracht Frankfurt · RB Leipzig win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

RB Leipzig win55%

Draw22%

Eintracht Frankfurt win22%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

In the news

from the pressAll ›

PREVIEW | RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt: A first major test after the international breakGet German Football News · 8 hours ago · RB Leipzig, Eintracht Frankfurt Julian Nagelsmann back on RB Leipzig radar amid Martin Demichelis’ inconsistent startGet German Football News · 1 day ago · RB Leipzig

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:30

Venue · Leipzig Red Bull Arena

Referee · Daniel Siebert

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

RB Leipzig

4-2-3-1

26 M. Vandevoordt

17 R. Baku

4 W. Orban

23 C. Lukeba

22 D. Raum

6 E. Banzuzi

21 N. El Aynaoui

30 A. Maksimovic

28 C. Nkunku

7 A. Nusa

40 Romulo Cardoso

Coach · Martin Demichelis

Substitutes

1 · O. Nyland

16 · L. Klostermann

35 · M. Finkgrafe

39 · B. Henrichs

3 · M. Esteve

13 · N. Seiwald

20 · R. Reitz

10 · B. Gruda

27 · T. Gomis

Eintracht Frankfurt

3-4-2-1

1 N. Atubolu

34 N. Collins

4 R. Koch

3 L. Brassier

7 A. Knauff

25 R. Onyedika

15 N. Aseko-Nkili

26 K. Kosugi

20 R. Doan

42 C. Uzun

9 J. Burkardt

Coach · Adi Hutter

Substitutes

40 · Kaua Santos

22 · T. Chandler

2 · E. Baum

5 · Otavio

27 · M. Gotze

31 · L. Arrhov

6 · O. Hojlund

8 · F. Chaibi

11 · Y. Ebnoutalib

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

RB Leipzig

4-2-3-1

26 M. Vandevoordt

17 R. Baku

4 W. Orban

23 C. Lukeba

22 D. Raum

6 E. Banzuzi

21 N. El Aynaoui

30 A. Maksimovic

28 C. Nkunku

7 A. Nusa

40 Romulo Cardoso

Coach · Martin Demichelis

Substitutes

1 · O. Nyland

16 · L. Klostermann

35 · M. Finkgrafe

39 · B. Henrichs

3 · M. Esteve

13 · N. Seiwald

20 · R. Reitz

10 · B. Gruda

27 · T. Gomis

Eintracht Frankfurt

3-4-2-1

1 N. Atubolu

34 N. Collins

4 R. Koch

3 L. Brassier

7 A. Knauff

25 R. Onyedika

15 N. Aseko-Nkili

26 K. Kosugi

20 R. Doan

42 C. Uzun

9 J. Burkardt

Coach · Adi Hutter

Substitutes

40 · Kaua Santos

22 · T. Chandler

2 · E. Baum

5 · Otavio

27 · M. Gotze

31 · L. Arrhov

6 · O. Hojlund

8 · F. Chaibi

11 · Y. Ebnoutalib

Our number · rb leipzig winPublished 10 Oct 17:54

55% The market60%

Us55%

~~Market~~60%

We make RB Leipzig a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · rb leipzig win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 61% to 60% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
RB Leipzig win	55%	60%	−5
Draw	22%	20%	+3
Eintracht Frankfurt win	22%	20%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	67%	74%	−8
Both teams to score	65%	70%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	87%	89%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	45%	56%	−11
RB Leipzig or draw	78%	80%	−2
RB Leipzig clean sheet	27%	–	–
Eintracht Frankfurt clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 4.2 3.3 2.8 1 5.9 9.8 5.8 2.6 2 7.3 9.4 6.2 2.7 3 5.2 6.7 4.4 4 2.8 3.6 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+RB Leipzig down, Eintracht Frankfurt across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,577 Bundesliga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 78.4% of games this season, across 37 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.10 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

RB Leipzig at home: 3.17 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Eintracht Frankfurt away: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.14 goals for RB Leipzig, 1.31 for Eintracht Frankfurt. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 17:32. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~EIN 1–3 RBL · RBL 6–0 EIN · EIN 4–0 RBL · RBL 2–1 EIN

Form · last six in Bundesliga

RB LEIPZIG

WLWLWL2–1 · 1–4 · 3–0 · 1–3 · 5–0 · 0–2

EINTRACHT FRANKFURT

LDDLWD2–3 · 2–2 · 3–3 · 1–4 · 3–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Borussia Dortmund	5	+7	13
2	Bayern München	4	+12	10
3	SC Freiburg	4	+9	10
4	Werder Bremen	5	0	8
5	FC Augsburg	4	+5	7
6	Bayer Leverkusen	4	+5	7
7	FSV Mainz 05	4	+4	7
8	SV Elversberg	4	+1	7
9	RB Leipzig	4	+4	6
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	4	−1	5
11	FC Schalke 04	4	−1	5
12	SC Paderborn 07	4	−2	4
13	1. FC Köln	4	−3	4
14	1899 Hoffenheim	4	−3	3
15	VfB Stuttgart	4	−3	3
16	Hamburger SV	4	−11	3
17	Union Berlin	4	−13	1
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	4	−10	0