Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgart

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said VfB Stuttgart win at 49%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: VfB Stuttgart was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 26–25–49
3. 1′KICK-OFF Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgart
4. 17′7 shots for VfB Stuttgart, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 26–27–47
5. 38′Much as we predicted: VfB Stuttgart was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 25–33–42
6. 42′11 shots for VfB Stuttgart, 6 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 25–34–41
7. 45′SECOND HALF Hamburger SV 0–0 VfB Stuttgart
8. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' VfB Stuttgart win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
9. 46′HALF-TIME Hamburger SV 0–0 VfB Stuttgart
10. 52′We said VfB Stuttgart at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 37%. 0–0 · 23–39–37
11. 54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was VfB Stuttgart win 36%)
12. 55′We expected about 3.2 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 23–41–36
13. 56′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Warmed Omari · Hamburger SV
14. 58′We said VfB Stuttgart at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 22–44–34
15. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Hamburger SV · On: Otto Emerson Stange · Off: Yussuf Poulsen
16. 67′We said VfB Stuttgart at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 19–52–29
17. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' VfB Stuttgart win: 49% at kick-off, 29% now
18. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' VfB Stuttgart · On: Chris Führich · Off: Bilal El Khannouss
19. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' VfB Stuttgart · On: Grischa Prömel · Off: Atakan Karazor
20. 73′We said VfB Stuttgart at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 16–60–24
21. 78′We said VfB Stuttgart at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 13–69–19
22. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' VfB Stuttgart · On: Leo Sauer · Off: Jamie Leweling
23. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' VfB Stuttgart win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
24. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' VfB Stuttgart · On: Dženan Pejčinović · Off: Ermedin Demirović
25. 79′VfB Stuttgart have had 18 attempts to 13 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 12–71–17
26. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Hamburger SV · On: Zakaria El Ouahdi · Off: Louis Pepe Lemke
27. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Hamburger SV · On: Terem Moffi · Off: Fábio Vieira
28. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Hamburger SV · On: Albert Grönbaek · Off: Martin Adeline
29. 82′We said VfB Stuttgart at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 9–77–14
30. 83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Nicolás Capaldo · Hamburger SV
31. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Hamburger SV · On: Kofi Jeremy Amoako · Off: Bilal Nadir
32. 86′We said VfB Stuttgart at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 6–85–9
33. 86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Otto Emerson Stange · Hamburger SV
34. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' VfB Stuttgart win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
35. 88′We said VfB Stuttgart at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at under 1%. 1–0 · 93–7–0
36. 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Hamburger SV 1–0 VfB Stuttgart
37. 88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Hamburger SV win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 7%)
38. 89′21 shots for VfB Stuttgart, 13 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 93–6–0
39. 89′Hamburger SV ahead on 88′ through Miro Muheim. 1–0. 1–0 · 93–6–0
40. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' VfB Stuttgart · On: Lorenz Assignon · Off: Ramon Hendriks
41. 93′Full time, 1–0. We called VfB Stuttgart at 49% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–0 · 100–0–0
42. FTFULL TIME Hamburger SV 1–0 VfB Stuttgart
43. FTHamburger SV 1–0 VfB Stuttgart · VfB Stuttgart win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.