FSV Mainz 05 v Werder Bremen prediction · Bundesliga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 17:24

FSV Mainz 05 2–3 Werder Bremen FSV MAINZ 05 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FSV Mainz 05 win~~51%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.901

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.964

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FSV Mainz 05 win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: FSV Mainz 05 was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–25–24
1′KICK-OFF FSV Mainz 05 v Werder Bremen
7′We said FSV Mainz 05 at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 0–1 · 27–23–50
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' FSV Mainz 05 0–1 Werder Bremen
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' FSV Mainz 05 win: 51% at kick-off, 27% now
7′THE CALL SWINGS · 7' Werder Bremen win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was FSV Mainz 05 win 50%)
8′Niclas Füllkrug scores for Werder Bremen on 7′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 27–23–50
17′We said FSV Mainz 05 at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–24–52
25′We said FSV Mainz 05 at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 0–2 · 8–14–78
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' FSV Mainz 05 0–2 Werder Bremen
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' FSV Mainz 05 win: 51% at kick-off, 8% now
26′25′: Niclas Füllkrug on the scoresheet for Werder Bremen, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 8–14–78
33′We said FSV Mainz 05 at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–2 · 19–25–55
33′That is 3, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 19–25–55
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' FSV Mainz 05 1–2 Werder Bremen
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' FSV Mainz 05 win: 51% at kick-off, 19% now
34′FSV Mainz 05 pull one back on 33′ through Anthony Caci. 1–2. 1–2 · 19–25–56
39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Ludovit Reis · Werder Bremen
45′HALF-TIME FSV Mainz 05 1–2 Werder Bremen
45′SECOND HALF FSV Mainz 05 1–2 Werder Bremen
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Werder Bremen · On: Mick Schmetgens · Off: Olivier Deman
47′We said FSV Mainz 05 at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–26–60
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' FSV Mainz 05 win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
60′We said FSV Mainz 05 at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 1–3 · 2–7–91
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Werder Bremen · On: Oskar Wójcik · Off: Mitchell Weiser
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' FSV Mainz 05 1–3 Werder Bremen
61′4 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 2–7–91
62′Ludovit Reis scores for Werder Bremen on 61′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 1–7–92
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' FSV Mainz 05 win: 51% at kick-off, 1% now
63′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 8–24–68
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' FSV Mainz 05 2–3 Werder Bremen
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' FSV Mainz 05 win: 51% at kick-off, 8% now
65′63′: Lee Jae-Sung on the scoresheet for FSV Mainz 05, making it 2–3. 2–3 · 7–24–69
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Phillipp Mwene · FSV Mainz 05
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Werder Bremen · On: Eren Dinkci · Off: Iván San José Cantalejo
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' FSV Mainz 05 · On: Ransford Königsdörffer · Off: Lee Jae-Sung
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' FSV Mainz 05 · On: Silvan Widmer · Off: Anthony Caci
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' FSV Mainz 05 win: 51% at kick-off, 1% now
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Werder Bremen · On: Cédric Itten · Off: Niclas Füllkrug
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' FSV Mainz 05 · On: Benedict Hollerbach · Off: Sheraldo Becker
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' FSV Mainz 05 · On: Paul Nebel · Off: Danny da Costa
90′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Benedict Hollerbach · FSV Mainz 05
91′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Marco Grüll · Werder Bremen
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' FSV Mainz 05 · On: Eric Martel · Off: Kaishu Sano
95′Full time, 2–3. We called FSV Mainz 05 at 51% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 2–3 · 0–0–100
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Alexander Schwolow · FSV Mainz 05
FTFULL TIME FSV Mainz 05 2–3 Werder Bremen
FTFSV Mainz 05 2–3 Werder Bremen · FSV Mainz 05 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FSV Mainz 05 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FSV Mainz 05 51%, draw 25%, Werder Bremen 24%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on FSV Mainz 05 v Werder BremenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

FSV Mainz 05 win51%

Draw25%

Werder Bremen win24%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 7

VenueMEWA Arena

RefereeFlorian Badstubner

Line-ups

FSV Mainz 05

3-5-2

Werder Bremen

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FSV Mainz 05

Werder Bremen

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the German Bundesliga

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	FSV Mainz 05	6	+4	10
8	Werder Bremen	6	0	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FSV Mainz 05

3-5-2

1 A. Schwolow

21 D. da Costa

4 S. Posch

48 K. Potulski

19 A. Caci

10 N. Amiri

6 K. Sano

7 Lee Jae-Sung

2 P. Mwene

9 P. Tietz

23 S. Becker

Coach · U. Fischer

Substitutes

17 · B. Hollerbach

40 · M. Kinzig

11 · R. Königsdörffer

15 · L. Maloney

3 · F. Gruber

5 · E. Martel

47 · R. Nakuzola

8 · P. Nebel

30 · S. Widmer

Werder Bremen

4-2-3-1

1 K. Hein

13 Arthur

5 A. Pieper

32 M. Friedl

2 O. Deman

15 L. Reis

44 Y. Regeer

8 M. Weiser

20 Chuky San José

17 M. Grüll

10 N. Füllkrug

Coach · D. Thioune

Substitutes

18 · E. Dinkçi

38 · P. Erevbenagie

26 · C. Itten

14 · S. Lynen

19 · K. Quetant

30 · A. Schlager

33 · Mick Schmetgens

23 · Dariusz Stalmach

3 · O. Wójcik

Our number · fsv mainz 05 winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

51% The market55%

Us51%

~~Market~~55%

We make FSV Mainz 05 a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FSV Mainz 05 v Werder Bremen~~1.81 – 1.18

~~Form · Bundesliga this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 9~~5 v 8

~~The market · FSV Mainz 05 win~~55% · ours 51%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FSV Mainz 05 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FSV Mainz 05 win	51%	55%	−4
Draw	25%	23%	+2
Werder Bremen win	24%	22%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	57%	63%	−6
Both teams to score	59%	62%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	81%	82%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	35%	42%	−7
FSV Mainz 05 or draw	76%	78%	−2
FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet	31%	–	–
Werder Bremen clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.1 5.0 3.5 1 8.1 11.7 6.3 2.5 2 8.2 9.6 5.7 2.3 3 5.0 5.8 3.4 4 2.3 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FSV Mainz 05 down, Werder Bremen across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,595 Bundesliga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.5% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.38 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FSV Mainz 05 at home: 1.33 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Werder Bremen away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.81 goals for FSV Mainz 05, 1.18 for Werder Bremen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.38

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~WER 0–2 FSV · FSV 1–1 WER · WER 1–0 FSV · FSV 1–2 WER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Bundesliga this season · since 29 Aug

FSV MAINZ 05

DWLWLW0–0 · 5–0 · 1–3 · 4–3 · 3–4 · 1–0

WERDER BREMEN

LWDWDD1–4 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bayern München	6	+17	14
2	Borussia Dortmund	6	+7	14
3	SC Freiburg	6	+9	13
4	Bayer Leverkusen	6	+7	13
5	FSV Mainz 05	6	+4	10
6	SV Elversberg	6	+1	10
7	RB Leipzig	6	+5	9
8	Werder Bremen	6	0	9
9	Hamburger SV	6	−9	9
10	FC Augsburg	6	+4	8
11	Eintracht Frankfurt	6	−6	8
12	1. FC Köln	6	−3	7
13	1899 Hoffenheim	6	−3	6
14	VfB Stuttgart	7	−3	6
15	FC Schalke 04	6	−3	5
16	SC Paderborn 07	6	−4	5
17	Union Berlin	6	−12	5
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	7	−11	3