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FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen

FSV Mainz 05

3–4Full time

Bayer Leverkusen

Bundesliga · SAT 10 OCT · MEWA Arena

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

FSV Mainz 05 3–4 Bayer Leverkusen BAYER LEVERKUSEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bayer Leverkusen win~~44%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.476

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.476

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 52 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bayer Leverkusen win at 44%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Bayer Leverkusen 44% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 31–24–45
2′KICK-OFF FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' FSV Mainz 05 0–1 Bayer Leverkusen
4′⚽ GOAL · 5' FSV Mainz 05 0–1 Bayer Leverkusen
5′Bayer Leverkusen find the net on 5′. 0–1. 0–1 · 14–18–69
5′We said Bayer Leverkusen at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 0–1 · 14–18–69
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Bayer Leverkusen win: 44% at kick-off, 69% now
8′We said Bayer Leverkusen at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 0–2 · 4–9–87
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' FSV Mainz 05 0–2 Bayer Leverkusen · Robert Andrich
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Bayer Leverkusen win: 44% at kick-off, 87% now
8′⚽ GOAL · 9' FSV Mainz 05 0–2 Bayer Leverkusen · Patrik Schick
9′Patrik Schick scores for Bayer Leverkusen on 9′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 4–9–87
21′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Phillip Tietz · FSV Mainz 05
34′33′ and it is 1–2: Anthony Caci on the scoresheet for FSV Mainz 05. 1–2 · 10–19–71
34′⚽ GOAL · 33' FSV Mainz 05 1–2 Bayer Leverkusen · Anthony Caci
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Bayer Leverkusen win: 44% at kick-off, 71% now
37′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Sheraldo Becker · FSV Mainz 05
41′FSV Mainz 05 ahead on 42′ through Anthony Caci. 2–2. 2–2 · 28–34–38
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' FSV Mainz 05 2–2 Bayer Leverkusen · Anthony Caci
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Bayer Leverkusen win: 44% at kick-off, 38% now
44′⚽ GOAL · 42' FSV Mainz 05 2–2 Bayer Leverkusen · Anthony Caci (assist Nadiem Amiri)
46′FSV Mainz 05 have had 13.0 attempts to 4.0 and it is still 2–2. 2–2 · 27–37–36
46′SECOND HALF FSV Mainz 05 2–2 Bayer Leverkusen
48′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 27–36–36
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' FSV Mainz 05 2–3 Bayer Leverkusen · Anthony Caci
57′⚽ GOAL · 55' FSV Mainz 05 2–3 Bayer Leverkusen · Jarell Quansah
66′⚽ GOAL · 65' FSV Mainz 05 2–4 Bayer Leverkusen · Moussa Diaby
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Bayer Leverkusen · On: Martin Terrier · Off: Ibrahim Maza Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' FSV Mainz 05 · On: Lee Jae-Sung · Off: Eric Martel Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' FSV Mainz 05 · On: Danny da Costa · Off: Anthony Caci Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' FSV Mainz 05 · On: Ransford Konigsdorffer · Off: Kacper Potulski Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Bayer Leverkusen · On: Malik Tillman · Off: Moussa Diaby Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Bayer Leverkusen · On: Malik Tillman · Off: Moussa Diaby Corrected
77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Lee Jae-Sung · FSV Mainz 05
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' FSV Mainz 05 · On: Benedict Hollerbach · Off: Sheraldo Becker Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' FSV Mainz 05 · On: Lennard Maloney · Off: Kaishu Sano Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Bayer Leverkusen · On: Jonas Hofmann · Off: Patrik Schick Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Bayer Leverkusen · On: Equi Fernández · Off: Aleix García Corrected
90′⚽ GOAL · 5' FSV Mainz 05 2–4 Bayer Leverkusen · Robert Andrich
90′⚽ GOAL · 9' FSV Mainz 05 2–4 Bayer Leverkusen · Patrik Schick (assist Aleix García)
90′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Phillip Tietz · FSV Mainz 05
90′⚽ GOAL · 33' FSV Mainz 05 2–4 Bayer Leverkusen · Anthony Caci
90′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Sheraldo Becker · FSV Mainz 05
90′⚽ GOAL · 42' FSV Mainz 05 2–4 Bayer Leverkusen · Anthony Caci (assist Nadiem Amiri)
90′⚽ GOAL · 55' FSV Mainz 05 2–4 Bayer Leverkusen · Jarell Quansah
90′⚽ GOAL · 65' FSV Mainz 05 2–4 Bayer Leverkusen · Moussa Diaby (assist Afonso Moreira)
90′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Bayer Leverkusen · On: Martin Terrier · Off: Ibrahim Maza Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 70' FSV Mainz 05 · On: Lee Jae-Sung · Off: Eric Martel Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 70' FSV Mainz 05 · On: Danny da Costa · Off: Anthony Caci Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 70' FSV Mainz 05 · On: Ransford Konigsdorffer · Off: Kacper Potulski Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Bayer Leverkusen · On: Nathan Tella · Off: Afonso Moreira Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Bayer Leverkusen · On: Malik Tillman · Off: Moussa Diaby Corrected
90′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Lee Jae-Sung · FSV Mainz 05
90′SUBSTITUTION · 77' FSV Mainz 05 · On: Benedict Hollerbach · Off: Sheraldo Becker Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 81' FSV Mainz 05 · On: Lennard Maloney · Off: Kaishu Sano Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Bayer Leverkusen · On: Jonas Hofmann · Off: Patrik Schick Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Bayer Leverkusen · On: Equi Fernández · Off: Aleix García Corrected
91′⚽ GOAL · 91' FSV Mainz 05 3–4 Bayer Leverkusen · Moussa Diaby
92′⚽ GOAL · 92' FSV Mainz 05 3–4 Bayer Leverkusen · Benedict Hollerbach
93′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Jarell Quansah · Bayer Leverkusen
FTFULL TIME FSV Mainz 05 3–4 Bayer Leverkusen
FTFSV Mainz 05 3–4 Bayer Leverkusen · Bayer Leverkusen win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

FSV Mainz 05 win30%

Draw26%

Bayer Leverkusen win44%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Bayer Leverkusen in talks with Ibrahim Maza over contract extensionGet German Football News · 4 hours ago · Bayer Leverkusen

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:30

Venue · MEWA Arena

Referee · Max Burda

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

FSV Mainz 05

3-5-2

1 A. Schwolow

4 S. Posch

3 F. Gruber

48 K. Potulski

19 A. Caci

5 E. Martel

6 K. Sano

10 N. Amiri

2 P. Mwene

9 P. Tietz

23 S. Becker

Coach · Urs Fischer

Substitutes

40 · M. Kinzig

15 · L. Maloney

16 · S. Bell

21 · D. da Costa

24 · S. Kawasaki

7 · Lee Jae-Sung

17 · B. Hollerbach

11 · R. Konigsdorffer

47 · R. Nakuzola

Bayer Leverkusen

4-2-3-1

1 M. Flekken

4 J. Quansah

12 E. Tapsoba

2 F. Medina

3 M. Gutierrez

8 R. Andrich

24 A. Garcia

19 M. Diaby

30 I. Maza

9 A. Moreira

14 P. Schick

Coach · Carles Martinez

Substitutes

28 · J. Blaswich

17 · Lucas

5 · L. Bade

23 · N. Tella

6 · E. Fernandez

7 · J. Hofmann

10 · M. Tillman

11 · M. Terrier

22 · V. Boniface

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

FSV Mainz 05

3-5-2

1 A. Schwolow

4 S. Posch

3 F. Gruber

48 K. Potulski

19 A. Caci

5 E. Martel

6 K. Sano

10 N. Amiri

2 P. Mwene

9 P. Tietz

23 S. Becker

Coach · Urs Fischer

Substitutes

40 · M. Kinzig

15 · L. Maloney

16 · S. Bell

21 · D. da Costa

24 · S. Kawasaki

7 · Lee Jae-Sung

17 · B. Hollerbach

11 · R. Konigsdorffer

47 · R. Nakuzola

Bayer Leverkusen

4-2-3-1

1 M. Flekken

4 J. Quansah

12 E. Tapsoba

2 F. Medina

3 M. Gutierrez

8 R. Andrich

24 A. Garcia

19 M. Diaby

30 I. Maza

9 A. Moreira

14 P. Schick

Coach · Carles Martinez

Substitutes

28 · J. Blaswich

17 · Lucas

5 · L. Bade

23 · N. Tella

6 · E. Fernandez

7 · J. Hofmann

10 · M. Tillman

11 · M. Terrier

22 · V. Boniface

Our number · bayer leverkusen winPublished 10 Oct 14:40

44% The market44%

Us44%

~~Market~~44%

We make Bayer Leverkusen a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · bayer leverkusen win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 43% to 44% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FSV Mainz 05 win	30%	31%	−1
Draw	26%	25%	+1
Bayer Leverkusen win	44%	44%	0
Over 2.5 goals	59%	64%	−5
Both teams to score	62%	66%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	82%	83%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	37%	44%	−7
FSV Mainz 05 or draw	56%	56%	0
FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet	19%	–	–
Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 5.9 6.7 6.6 3.8 1 5.3 11.9 9.1 5.1 2.2 2 4.4 7.4 6.2 3.5 3 2.1 3.4 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FSV Mainz 05 down, Bayer Leverkusen across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,577 Bundesliga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 78.4% of games this season, across 37 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.40 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FSV Mainz 05 at home: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for FSV Mainz 05, 1.69 for Bayer Leverkusen. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 14:33. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.40

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BAY 1–1 FSV · FSV 3–4 BAY · FSV 2–2 BAY · BAY 1–0 FSV

Form · last six in Bundesliga

FSV MAINZ 05

LWDWLW1–3 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 5–0 · 1–3 · 4–3

BAYER LEVERKUSEN

LDLWDW1–3 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 4–0 · 2–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Borussia Dortmund	5	+7	13
2	Bayern München	4	+12	10
3	SC Freiburg	4	+9	10
4	Werder Bremen	5	0	8
5	FC Augsburg	4	+5	7
6	Bayer Leverkusen	4	+5	7
7	FSV Mainz 05	4	+4	7
8	SV Elversberg	4	+1	7
9	RB Leipzig	4	+4	6
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	4	−1	5
11	FC Schalke 04	4	−1	5
12	SC Paderborn 07	4	−2	4
13	1. FC Köln	4	−3	4
14	1899 Hoffenheim	4	−3	3
15	VfB Stuttgart	4	−3	3
16	Hamburger SV	4	−11	3
17	Union Berlin	4	−13	1
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	4	−10	0