FC Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 05 prediction · Bundesliga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

FC Schalke 04 0–1 FSV Mainz 05 FSV MAINZ 05 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FSV Mainz 05 win~~40%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.537

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.504

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FSV Mainz 05 win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: FSV Mainz 05 was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 32–27–40
1′KICK-OFF FC Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 05
24′We published FSV Mainz 05 at 40%. Our model now makes it 69%. 0–1 · 12–19–69
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' FC Schalke 04 0–1 FSV Mainz 05
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' FSV Mainz 05 win: 40% at kick-off, 69% now
25′24′: Phillip Tietz on the scoresheet for FSV Mainz 05, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 12–19–69
30′We published FSV Mainz 05 at 40%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 11–20–70
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' FSV Mainz 05 win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
31′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 11–20–70
39′24′: Phillip Tietz on the scoresheet for FSV Mainz 05, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 9–20–71
39′We published FSV Mainz 05 at 40%. Our model now makes it 71%. 0–1 · 9–20–71
40′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 9–20–71
42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Nadiem Amiri · FSV Mainz 05
45′SECOND HALF FC Schalke 04 0–1 FSV Mainz 05
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Kaishu Sano · FSV Mainz 05
47′HALF-TIME FC Schalke 04 0–1 FSV Mainz 05
55′We published FSV Mainz 05 at 40%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 6–20–75
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' FC Schalke 04 · On: Junior Dina Ebimbe · Off: Adrian Tobias Gantenbein
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' FC Schalke 04 · On: Hwang Hee-Chan · Off: Edin Džeko
68′We published FSV Mainz 05 at 40%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' FSV Mainz 05 win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' FC Schalke 04 · On: Maximilian Wöber · Off: Nikola Katić
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' FC Schalke 04 · On: Junior Chukwubuike Adamu · Off: Adil Aouchiche
76′We published FSV Mainz 05 at 40%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 1–13–85
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' FSV Mainz 05 · On: Paul Nebel · Off: Lee Jae-Sung
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' FSV Mainz 05 · On: Ransford Konigsdorffer · Off: Sheraldo Becker
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' FC Schalke 04 · On: Vitalie Becker · Off: Robin Gosens
82′We published FSV Mainz 05 at 40%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' FSV Mainz 05 win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' FSV Mainz 05 · On: Eric Martel · Off: Nadiem Amiri
88′We published FSV Mainz 05 at 40%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' FSV Mainz 05 · On: Lennard Maloney · Off: Phillip Tietz
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' FSV Mainz 05 · On: Silvan Widmer · Off: Anthony Caci
94′Full time, 0–1. We called FSV Mainz 05 at 40% — that one lands. 0–1 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME FC Schalke 04 0–1 FSV Mainz 05
FTFC Schalke 04 0–1 FSV Mainz 05 · FSV Mainz 05 win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FSV Mainz 05 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Schalke 04 33%, draw 27%, FSV Mainz 05 40%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on FC Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 05Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

FC Schalke 04 win33%

Draw27%

FSV Mainz 05 win40%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 6

VenueVELTINS-Arena

RefereeRichard Hempel

Line-ups

FC Schalke 04

3-4-2-1

FSV Mainz 05

3-5-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Schalke 04

FSV Mainz 05

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · the German Bundesliga

Last match: 10 Oct · the German Bundesliga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	FSV Mainz 05	5	+3	7
14	FC Schalke 04	5	−2	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FC Schalke 04

3-4-2-1

1 L. Karius

5 T. Becker

25 N. Katic

4 H. Kurucay

17 A. Gantenbein

23 S. El-Faouzi

13 S. Tanaka

8 R. Gosens

19 K. Karaman

24 A. Aouchiche

10 E. Dzeko

Coach · Miron Muslic

Substitutes

22 · K. Muller

39 · M. Wober

43 · M. Ayhan

33 · V. Becker

6 · R. Schallenberg

38 · L. Vozar

29 · J. Dina Ebimbe

7 · Hwang Hee-Chan

20 · J. Adamu

FSV Mainz 05

3-5-2

1 A. Schwolow

21 D. da Costa

4 S. Posch

48 K. Potulski

19 A. Caci

10 N. Amiri

6 K. Sano

7 Lee Jae-Sung

2 P. Mwene

23 S. Becker

9 P. Tietz

Coach · Urs Fischer

Substitutes

40 · M. Kinzig

30 · S. Widmer

15 · L. Maloney

3 · F. Gruber

8 · P. Nebel

5 · E. Martel

17 · B. Hollerbach

11 · R. Konigsdorffer

47 · R. Nakuzola

Our number · fsv mainz 05 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market42%

Us40%

~~Market~~42%

We make FSV Mainz 05 a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 05~~1.31 – 1.48

~~Form · Bundesliga this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D2 L2 · W2 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 5 v 7~~14 v 9

~~The market · FSV Mainz 05 win~~42% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FSV Mainz 05 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 40% to 42% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Schalke 04 win	33%	31%	+2
Draw	27%	27%	0
FSV Mainz 05 win	40%	42%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	53%	58%	−5
Both teams to score	57%	62%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	78%	79%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	31%	38%	−7
FC Schalke 04 or draw	60%	58%	+2
FC Schalke 04 clean sheet	23%	–	–
FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 7.5 8.0 6.8 3.4 1 6.9 12.8 8.6 4.3 2 5.3 7.6 5.6 2.8 3 2.4 3.4 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Schalke 04 down, FSV Mainz 05 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,586 Bundesliga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.1% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Schalke 04 at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). FSV Mainz 05 away: 2.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for FC Schalke 04, 1.48 for FSV Mainz 05. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~FSV 2–3 FCS · FCS 1–0 FSV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Bundesliga this season · since 29 Aug

FC SCHALKE 04

LDWDL0–3 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 1–2

FSV MAINZ 05

DWLWL0–0 · 5–0 · 1–3 · 4–3 · 3–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	SC Freiburg	5	+10	13
2	Borussia Dortmund	5	+7	13
3	Bayern München	5	+12	11
4	Bayer Leverkusen	5	+6	10
5	RB Leipzig	5	+10	9
6	FC Augsburg	5	+5	8
7	Werder Bremen	5	0	8
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	6	−6	8
9	FSV Mainz 05	5	+3	7
10	SV Elversberg	5	0	7
11	1. FC Köln	6	−3	7
12	VfB Stuttgart	5	−1	6
13	Hamburger SV	5	−10	6
14	FC Schalke 04	5	−2	5
15	SC Paderborn 07	5	−4	4
16	Union Berlin	5	−12	4
17	1899 Hoffenheim	5	−4	3
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	5	−11	0