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FC Augsburg v Union Berlin

FC Augsburg

1–1Full time

Union Berlin

Bundesliga · SAT 24 OCT · WWK Arena

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 17:24

FC Augsburg 1–1 Union Berlin FC AUGSBURG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said FC Augsburg win~~45%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.815

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.920

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay22 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Augsburg win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: FC Augsburg 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–27–28
1′KICK-OFF FC Augsburg v Union Berlin
12′SUBSTITUTION · 12' FC Augsburg · On: Jeffrey Gouweleeuw · Off: Calvin Marc Brackelmann
19′🟥 RED CARD · 19' FC Augsburg
19′🟥 RED CARD · 19' Union Berlin
20′Union Berlin are down to ten from 19′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 43–30–27
26′SUBSTITUTION · 25' Union Berlin · On: Leopold Querfeld · Off: Livan Burcu
32′FC Augsburg have had 7 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 40–34–26
33′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Janik Haberer · Union Berlin
36′FC Augsburg have had 9 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 39–35–26
37′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Leopold Querfeld · Union Berlin
45′SECOND HALF FC Augsburg 0–0 Union Berlin
46′12 shots for FC Augsburg, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 36–39–24
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Union Berlin · On: Mekhi Gray · Off: Tim Skarke
48′HALF-TIME FC Augsburg 0–0 Union Berlin
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' FC Augsburg win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was FC Augsburg win 38%)
54′We said FC Augsburg at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–44–23
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.8 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 33–45–23
62′We said FC Augsburg at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–51–20
64′FC Augsburg have ten men and Union Berlin ten after the red cards. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 28–52–20
66′18 shots for FC Augsburg, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 27–55–19
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' FC Augsburg win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
69′We said FC Augsburg at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–58–17
71′We said FC Augsburg at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–0 · 84–14–2
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' FC Augsburg 1–0 Union Berlin
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' FC Augsburg win: 45% at kick-off, 84% now
71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' FC Augsburg win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 61%)
73′FC Augsburg ahead on 71′ through Han-Noah Massengo. 1–0. 1–0 · 85–14–2
73′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–1 · 21–63–15
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' FC Augsburg win: 45% at kick-off, 85% now
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' FC Augsburg · On: Robin Fellhauer · Off: Marius Wolf
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' FC Augsburg · On: Mert Kömür · Off: Arijon Ibrahimovic
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' FC Augsburg 1–1 Union Berlin
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' FC Augsburg win: 45% at kick-off, 21% now
73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Draw is now our likeliest result at 63% (was FC Augsburg win 85%)
75′Janik Haberer scores for Union Berlin on 74′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 19–66–14
75′We said FC Augsburg at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–66–14
76′FC Augsburg have had 21 attempts to 2 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 19–68–13
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Union Berlin · On: Oliver Burke · Off: Woo-Yeong Jeong
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Mekhi Gray · Union Berlin
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' FC Augsburg win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
80′We said FC Augsburg at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–75–10
84′We said FC Augsburg at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–84–7
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' FC Augsburg win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' FC Augsburg · On: Uchenna Ogundu · Off: Han-Noah Massengo
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' FC Augsburg · On: Rodrigo Ribeiro · Off: Anton Kade
91′We said FC Augsburg at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
91′24 shots for FC Augsburg, 4 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 4–93–3
95′1–1 at the end. Our 45% on FC Augsburg misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+5' Union Berlin · On: Aljoscha Kemlein · Off: Michel Aebischer
FTFULL TIME FC Augsburg 1–1 Union Berlin
FTFC Augsburg 1–1 Union Berlin · FC Augsburg win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Augsburg are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Augsburg 45%, draw 27%, Union Berlin 28%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on FC Augsburg v Union BerlinBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

FC Augsburg win45%

Draw27%

Union Berlin win28%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 7

VenueWWK Arena

RefereeRobin Braun

Line-ups

FC Augsburg

3-4-2-1

Union Berlin

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Augsburg

Union Berlin

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the German Bundesliga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	FC Augsburg	6	+4	8
17	Union Berlin	6	−12	5

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Augsburg’s Manuel Baum left craving duller football after weeks of Bundesliga spectaclesGet German Football News · 22 Oct 20:18 · FC Augsburg Union Berlin’s Mauro Lustrinelli heads to hometown of quiz show contestant who couldn’t name himGet German Football News · 22 Oct 19:57 · Union Berlin

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FC Augsburg

3-4-2-1

1 F. Dahmen

35 Abdulay Bah

5 C. Matsima

2 C. Brackelmann

27 M. Wolf

4 H. Massengo

32 F. Rieder

16 Hennes Behrens

30 A. Kade

21 A. Ibrahimović

11 M. Gregoritsch

Coach · M. Baum

Substitutes

7 · Seol Young-Woo

37 · T. Schnitzer

9 · Rodrigo Ribeiro

39 · U. Ogundu

22 · N. Labrović

10 · M. Kömür

14 · Y. Keitel

6 · J. Gouweleeuw

19 · R. Fellhauer

Union Berlin

4-2-3-1

1 F. Rønnow

19 J. Haberer

4 Z. Van Den Bosch

2 F. Uduokhai

15 T. Rothe

13 A. Schäfer

8 R. Khedira

11 Jeong Woo-Yeong

20 M. Aebischer

9 Livan Burcu

21 T. Skarke

Coach · M. Lustrinelli

Substitutes

28 · C. Trimmel

31 · M. Raab

14 · L. Querfeld

27 · M. Ljubičić

29 · E. Latte Lath

17 · D. Köhn

6 · A. Kemlein

32 · M. Gray

7 · O. Burke

Our number · fc augsburg winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 24 Oct 03:51 · locked at kick-off

45% The market53%

Us45%

~~Market~~53%

We make FC Augsburg a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Augsburg v Union Berlin~~1.59 – 1.19

~~Form · Bundesliga this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 8 v 5~~10 v 17

~~The market · FC Augsburg win~~53% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Augsburg win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Augsburg win	45%	53%	−8
Draw	27%	23%	+4
Union Berlin win	28%	24%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	52%	64%	−12
Both teams to score	56%	64%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	77%	83%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	30%	44%	−14
FC Augsburg or draw	72%	76%	−4
FC Augsburg clean sheet	31%	–	–
Union Berlin clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 7.5 6.4 4.4 1 8.8 12.8 6.9 2.8 2 7.8 9.2 5.5 2.2 3 4.1 4.9 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Augsburg down, Union Berlin across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,595 Bundesliga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.5% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Augsburg at home: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Union Berlin away: 0.83 scored, 3.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for FC Augsburg, 1.19 for Union Berlin. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~UNI 4–0 FCA · FCA 1–1 UNI · FCA 1–2 UNI · UNI 0–2 FCA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Bundesliga this season · since 29 Aug

FC AUGSBURG

WWDLDL3–0 · 4–1 · 2–2 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 3–4

UNION BERLIN

DLLLWD3–3 · 0–4 · 1–3 · 0–7 · 1–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bayern München	6	+17	14
2	Borussia Dortmund	6	+7	14
3	SC Freiburg	6	+9	13
4	Bayer Leverkusen	6	+7	13
5	FSV Mainz 05	6	+4	10
6	SV Elversberg	6	+1	10
7	RB Leipzig	6	+5	9
8	Werder Bremen	6	0	9
9	Hamburger SV	6	−9	9
10	FC Augsburg	6	+4	8
11	Eintracht Frankfurt	6	−6	8
12	1. FC Köln	6	−3	7
13	1899 Hoffenheim	6	−3	6
14	VfB Stuttgart	7	−3	6
15	FC Schalke 04	6	−3	5
16	SC Paderborn 07	6	−4	5
17	Union Berlin	6	−12	5
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	7	−11	3