FC Augsburg v SC Freiburg prediction · Bundesliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FC AugsburgDrawSC Freiburg

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:30

Before kick-off · Match result · FC Augsburg 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with FC Augsburg just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Augsburg 38%, draw 27%, SC Freiburg 36%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on FC Augsburg v SC FreiburgBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

FC Augsburg win38%

Draw27%

SC Freiburg win36%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 8

VenueWWK Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Augsburg

SC Freiburg

7Days since last match9

Last match: 24 Oct · the German Bundesliga

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	SC Freiburg	6	+9	13
9	FC Augsburg	7	+4	9

In the news

from the pressAll ›

MATCH REPORT | Monaco ease past Freiburg in Conference League to return to winning waysGet French Football News · 23 Oct 00:56 · Monaco, SC Freiburg Augsburg’s Manuel Baum left craving duller football after weeks of Bundesliga spectaclesGet German Football News · 22 Oct 20:18 · FC Augsburg

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc augsburg winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · updated 25 Oct 03:57 · locked at kick-off

38% The market32%

Us38%

~~Market~~32%

We make FC Augsburg a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Augsburg v SC Freiburg~~1.49 – 1.45

~~Form · last six in Bundesliga this season · since 30 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 13~~9 v 3

~~The market · FC Augsburg win~~32% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Augsburg win The market, margin stripped

Published at 37%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Augsburg win	38%	32%	+6
Draw	27%	25%	+2
SC Freiburg win	36%	43%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	56%	64%	−8
Both teams to score	60%	66%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	80%	82%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	34%	44%	−10
FC Augsburg or draw	64%	57%	+7
FC Augsburg clean sheet	24%	–	–
SC Freiburg clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 6.4 6.6 5.6 2.7 1 6.8 12.4 8.2 4.0 2 5.8 8.4 6.1 3.0 3 2.9 4.2 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Augsburg down, SC Freiburg across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,601 Bundesliga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.5% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.10 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Augsburg at home: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). SC Freiburg away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for FC Augsburg, 1.45 for SC Freiburg. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FCA 2–2 SCF · SCF 1–3 FCA · FCA 0–0 SCF · SCF 3–1 FCA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Bundesliga this season · since 30 Aug

FC AUGSBURG

WDLDLD4–1 · 2–2 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 3–4 · 1–1

SC FREIBURG

WWWDWL4–1 · 1–0 · 5–0 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Borussia Dortmund	7	+8	17
2	Bayern München	6	+17	14
3	SC Freiburg	6	+9	13
4	Bayer Leverkusen	6	+7	13
5	RB Leipzig	7	+9	12
6	Werder Bremen	7	+1	12
7	FSV Mainz 05	7	+3	10
8	SV Elversberg	7	−3	10
9	FC Augsburg	7	+4	9
10	Hamburger SV	7	−10	9
11	1. FC Köln	7	−3	8
12	SC Paderborn 07	7	−3	8
13	Eintracht Frankfurt	7	−7	8
14	1899 Hoffenheim	6	−3	6
15	VfB Stuttgart	7	−3	6
16	FC Schalke 04	7	−3	6
17	Union Berlin	7	−12	6
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	7	−11	3