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FC Augsburg v Bayern München

FC Augsburg

2–2Full time

Bayern München

Bundesliga · SAT 10 OCT · WWK Arena

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

FC Augsburg 2–2 Bayern München BAYERN MÜNCHEN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bayern München win~~69%

~~The market said~~82%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.182

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.466

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bayern München win at 69%.
3′1′ and it is 1–0: Robin Fellhauer on the scoresheet for FC Augsburg. 1–0 · 30–21–49
3′KICK-OFF FC Augsburg v Bayern München
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 5' Bayern München win: 69% at kick-off, 49% now
6′We said Bayern München at 69%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 47%. 1–0 · 31–22–47
13′We said Bayern München at 69%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 1–0 · 33–23–44
24′We said Bayern München at 69%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–0 · 36–25–39
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Bayern München win: 69% at kick-off, 39% now
35′We said Bayern München at 69%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–0 · 40–27–34
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' FC Augsburg win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Bayern München win 34%)
42′We said Bayern München at 69%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–0 · 43–28–29
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Bayern München win: 69% at kick-off, 29% now
45′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Chrislain Matsima · FC Augsburg
45′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Rodrigo Ribeiro · FC Augsburg
45′HALF-TIME FC Augsburg 1–0 Bayern München
48′SECOND HALF FC Augsburg 1–0 Bayern München
52′⚽ GOAL · 51' FC Augsburg 1–1 Bayern München · Luis Díaz
57′⚽ GOAL · 55' FC Augsburg 1–1 Bayern München · Ismael Saibari (assist Harry Kane)
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' FC Augsburg · On: Anton Kade · Off: Seol Young-woo Corrected
65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' FC Augsburg · On: Anton Kade · Off: Seol Young-woo Corrected
65′⚽ GOAL · 64' FC Augsburg 2–1 Bayern München · Rodrigo Ribeiro
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Bayern München · On: Nathaniel Brown · Off: Josip Stanišić Corrected
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Bayern München · On: Serge Gnabry · Off: Ismael Saibari Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' FC Augsburg · On: Mert Kömür · Off: Rodrigo Ribeiro Corrected
82′⚽ GOAL · 80' FC Augsburg 2–2 Bayern München · Nathaniel Brown (assist Harry Kane)
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' FC Augsburg · On: Jeffrey Gouweleeuw · Off: Juma Bah Corrected
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Bayern München · On: Tom Bischof · Off: Aleksandar Pavlović Corrected
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Bayern München · On: Lennart Karl · Off: Luis Díaz Corrected
FTFULL TIME FC Augsburg 2–2 Bayern München
FTFC Augsburg 2–2 Bayern München · Bayern München win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

FC Augsburg win13%

Draw17%

Bayern München win69%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Bayern Munich set their sights on FC Barcelona defender Jules KoundéGet French Football News · 17 min ago · Bayern München, Barcelona, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester United, Manchester City Vincent Kompany wary of Augsburg threat: ‘We know it won’t be easy’Get German Football News · 1 day ago · FC Augsburg, Bayern München PODCAST | Matchday 5 predictions – Augsburg to shock Bayern Munich? Cologne vs. GladbachGet German Football News · 1 day ago · FC Augsburg, Bayern München, Borussia Dortmund Bayern goalkeeping talent Leonard Prescott (17) courted by Chelsea and USMNTGet German Football News · 1 day ago · Bayern München, Chelsea, Juventus

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:30

Venue · WWK Arena

Referee · Sven Jablonski

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

FC Augsburg

3-4-2-1

1 F. Dahmen

35 J. Bah

5 C. Matsima

2 C. Brackelmann

7 Seol Young-Woo

4 H. Massengo

32 F. Rieder

16 H. Behrens

19 R. Fellhauer

21 A. Ibrahimovic

9 R. Ribeiro

Coach · Manuel Baum

Substitutes

22 · N. Labrovic

6 · J. Gouweleeuw

37 · T. Schnitzer

14 · Y. Keitel

10 · M. Komur

8 · S. Suso

39 · U. Ogundu

11 · M. Gregoritsch

30 · A. Kade

Bayern München

4-2-3-1

1 M. Neuer

44 J. Stanisic

2 D. Upamecano

4 J. Tah

19 A. Davies

6 J. Kimmich

45 A. Pavlovic

17 M. Olise

34 I. Saibari

14 L. Diaz

9 H. Kane

Coach · Vincent Kompany

Substitutes

40 · J. Urbig

3 · Kim Min-Jae

21 · H. Ito

23 · S. Boey

11 · N. Brown

8 · T. Bischof

42 · L. Karl

39 · B. Sapoko Ndiaye

7 · S. Gnabry

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

FC Augsburg

3-4-2-1

1 F. Dahmen

35 J. Bah

5 C. Matsima

2 C. Brackelmann

7 Seol Young-Woo

4 H. Massengo

32 F. Rieder

16 H. Behrens

19 R. Fellhauer

21 A. Ibrahimovic

9 R. Ribeiro

Coach · Manuel Baum

Substitutes

22 · N. Labrovic

6 · J. Gouweleeuw

37 · T. Schnitzer

14 · Y. Keitel

10 · M. Komur

8 · S. Suso

39 · U. Ogundu

11 · M. Gregoritsch

30 · A. Kade

Bayern München

4-2-3-1

1 M. Neuer

44 J. Stanisic

2 D. Upamecano

4 J. Tah

19 A. Davies

6 J. Kimmich

45 A. Pavlovic

17 M. Olise

34 I. Saibari

14 L. Diaz

9 H. Kane

Coach · Vincent Kompany

Substitutes

40 · J. Urbig

3 · Kim Min-Jae

21 · H. Ito

23 · S. Boey

11 · N. Brown

8 · T. Bischof

42 · L. Karl

39 · B. Sapoko Ndiaye

7 · S. Gnabry

Our number · bayern münchen winPublished 10 Oct 14:40

69% The market82%

Us69%

~~Market~~82%

We make Bayern München a 69% chance to win. The market has them at 82%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–2.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · bayern münchen win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 80% to 82% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Augsburg win	13%	8%	+6
Draw	17%	11%	+6
Bayern München win	69%	82%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	74%	84%	−10
Both teams to score	64%	65%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	90%	94%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	54%	69%	−15
FC Augsburg or draw	31%	18%	+12
FC Augsburg clean sheet	7%	–	–
Bayern München clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.8%

0123450 2.9 5.1 7.7 7.0 4.7 2.61 7.3 8.8 7.9 5.4 2.92 3.8 5.1 4.5 3.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Augsburg down, Bayern München across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,577 Bundesliga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 78.4% of games this season, across 37 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.70 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Augsburg at home: 2.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Bayern München away: 2.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for FC Augsburg, 2.71 for Bayern München. Most likely score 1–2.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 14:33. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.70

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BAY 1–2 FCA · FCA 2–3 BAY · FCA 1–3 BAY · BAY 3–0 FCA

Form · last six in Bundesliga

FC AUGSBURG

WLWWDL3–1 · 0–4 · 3–0 · 4–1 · 2–2 · 2–3

BAYERN MÜNCHEN

WWWDWW1–0 · 5–1 · 5–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 7–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Borussia Dortmund	5	+7	13
2	Bayern München	4	+12	10
3	SC Freiburg	4	+9	10
4	Werder Bremen	5	0	8
5	FC Augsburg	4	+5	7
6	Bayer Leverkusen	4	+5	7
7	FSV Mainz 05	4	+4	7
8	SV Elversberg	4	+1	7
9	RB Leipzig	4	+4	6
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	4	−1	5
11	FC Schalke 04	4	−1	5
12	SC Paderborn 07	4	−2	4
13	1. FC Köln	4	−3	4
14	1899 Hoffenheim	4	−3	3
15	VfB Stuttgart	4	−3	3
16	Hamburger SV	4	−11	3
17	Union Berlin	4	−13	1
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	4	−10	0