Eintracht Frankfurt v 1. FC Köln prediction · Bundesliga

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 22:01

Eintracht Frankfurt 1–0 1. FC Köln EINTRACHT FRANKFURT WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Eintracht Frankfurt win~~54%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.320

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.353

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Eintracht Frankfurt win at 54%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Eintracht Frankfurt 54% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–21–24
1′KICK-OFF Eintracht Frankfurt v 1. FC Köln
25′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Mario Götze · Eintracht Frankfurt
40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Lilian Brassier · Eintracht Frankfurt
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Eintracht Frankfurt win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
45′SECOND HALF Eintracht Frankfurt 0–0 1. FC Köln
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson · 1. FC Köln
48′HALF-TIME Eintracht Frankfurt 0–0 1. FC Köln
49′We said Eintracht Frankfurt at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 42%. 0–0 · 42–35–22
55′We said Eintracht Frankfurt at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–39–21
56′Goalless on 56′ when we expected about 3.4 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 39–40–21
59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Eintracht Frankfurt win 37%)
64′We said Eintracht Frankfurt at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–47–19
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Eintracht Frankfurt win: 54% at kick-off, 34% now
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' 1. FC Köln · On: Mikey Moore · Off: Linton Maina
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' 1. FC Köln · On: Alessio Castro-Montes · Off: Joel Schmied
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' 1. FC Köln · On: Paul Okon-Engstler · Off: Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson
70′We said Eintracht Frankfurt at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–54–17
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Eintracht Frankfurt · On: Noel Aseko · Off: Mario Götze
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Eintracht Frankfurt · On: Ansgar Knauff · Off: Nnamdi Collins
75′We said Eintracht Frankfurt at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–61–14
75′12 shots for Eintracht Frankfurt, 7 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 24–61–14
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Eintracht Frankfurt win: 54% at kick-off, 24% now
76′We said Eintracht Frankfurt at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 1–0 · 86–12–1
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Eintracht Frankfurt 1–0 1. FC Köln
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Eintracht Frankfurt win: 54% at kick-off, 86% now
76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' Eintracht Frankfurt win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 12%)
78′Eintracht Frankfurt ahead on 77′ through Younes Ebnoutalib. 1–0. 1–0 · 88–11–1
81′We said Eintracht Frankfurt at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Eintracht Frankfurt · On: Elias Niklas Baum · Off: Jonathan Burkardt
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' 1. FC Köln · On: Reigan Heskey · Off: Said El Mala
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' 1. FC Köln · On: Luca Waldschmidt · Off: Sebastian Soraas Sebulonsen
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Eintracht Frankfurt win: 54% at kick-off, 94% now
88′We said Eintracht Frankfurt at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
95′1–0 at the end. Our 54% on Eintracht Frankfurt comes in. 1–0 · 100–0–0
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Borna Sosa · 1. FC Köln
FTFULL TIME Eintracht Frankfurt 1–0 1. FC Köln
FTEintracht Frankfurt 1–0 1. FC Köln · Eintracht Frankfurt win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Eintracht Frankfurt are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Eintracht Frankfurt 54%, draw 23%, 1. FC Köln 23%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Eintracht Frankfurt v 1. FC KölnBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Eintracht Frankfurt win54%

Draw23%

1. FC Köln win23%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:30

RoundMatchday 6

VenueDeutsche Bank Park

RefereeBenjamin Brand

Line-ups

Eintracht Frankfurt

4-4-2

1. FC Köln

5-3-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Eintracht Frankfurt

1. FC Köln

6Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · the German Bundesliga

Last match: 11 Oct · the German Bundesliga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	1. FC Köln	5	−2	7
14	Eintracht Frankfurt	5	−7	5

In the news

from the pressAll ›

The Curse of Eintracht Frankfurt | Adi Hütter battles recurring SGE nightmaresGet German Football News · 14 Oct 19:39 · Eintracht Frankfurt

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Eintracht Frankfurt

4-4-2

1 N. Atubolu

34 N. Collins

4 R. Koch

3 L. Brassier

26 K. Kosugi

20 R. Doan

25 R. Onyedika

27 M. Gotze

8 F. Chaibi

9 J. Burkardt

11 Y. Ebnoutalib

Coach · Adi Hutter

Substitutes

40 · Kaua Santos

22 · T. Chandler

2 · E. Baum

31 · L. Arrhov

15 · N. Aseko-Nkili

42 · C. Uzun

37 · J. Maluze

7 · A. Knauff

29 · A. Amaimouni

1. FC Köln

5-3-2

1 M. Schwabe

28 S. Sebulonsen

2 J. Schmied

22 J. Simpson-Pusey

24 L. Lochoshvili

3 B. Sosa

8 I. Johannesson

5 T. Krauss

37 L. Maina

30 M. Bulter

10 S. El Mala

Coach · Rene Wagner

Substitutes

20 · R. Zieler

14 · G. Mensah

46 · A. Kotya-Fofana

23 · P. Okon-Engstler

17 · A. Castro-Montes

7 · L. Waldschmidt

29 · J. Thielmann

47 · M. Moore

11 · R. Heskey

Our number · eintracht frankfurt winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:00 · locked at kick-off

54% The market52%

Us54%

~~Market~~52%

We make Eintracht Frankfurt a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.1–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Eintracht Frankfurt v 1. FC Köln~~2.06 – 1.30

~~Form · Bundesliga this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D2 L2 · W2 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 5 v 7~~14 v 10

~~The market · Eintracht Frankfurt win~~52% · ours 54%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Eintracht Frankfurt win The market, margin stripped

Published at 55%, 54% now. The market has gone from 49% to 52% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Eintracht Frankfurt win	54%	52%	+2
Draw	23%	22%	+1
1. FC Köln win	23%	26%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	65%	71%	−6
Both teams to score	64%	70%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	86%	87%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	43%	52%	−9
Eintracht Frankfurt or draw	77%	74%	+3
Eintracht Frankfurt clean sheet	27%	–	–
1. FC Köln clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.5 3.6 3.0 1 6.2 10.2 6.0 2.6 2 7.3 9.5 6.2 2.7 3 5.0 6.5 4.2 4 2.6 3.4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Eintracht Frankfurt down, 1. FC Köln across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,585 Bundesliga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 77.8% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.88 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.50 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). 1. FC Köln away: 1.33 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.06 goals for Eintracht Frankfurt, 1.30 for 1. FC Köln. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 16 Oct 19:02. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.88

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~EIN 2–2 FCK · FCK 3–4 EIN · FCK 2–0 EIN · EIN 1–1 FCK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Bundesliga this season · since 29 Aug

EINTRACHT FRANKFURT

DLWDL3–3 · 1–4 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 0–6

1. FC KÖLN

WLDLW3–2 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	SC Freiburg	5	+10	13
2	Borussia Dortmund	5	+7	13
3	Bayern München	5	+12	11
4	Bayer Leverkusen	5	+6	10
5	RB Leipzig	5	+10	9
6	FC Augsburg	5	+5	8
7	Werder Bremen	5	0	8
8	FSV Mainz 05	5	+3	7
9	SV Elversberg	5	0	7
10	1. FC Köln	5	−2	7
11	VfB Stuttgart	5	−1	6
12	Hamburger SV	5	−10	6
13	FC Schalke 04	5	−2	5
14	Eintracht Frankfurt	5	−7	5
15	SC Paderborn 07	5	−4	4
16	Union Berlin	5	−12	4
17	1899 Hoffenheim	5	−4	3
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	5	−11	0