Borussia Mönchengladbach v SC Paderborn 07 prediction · Bundesliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Borussia MönchengladbachDrawSC Paderborn 07

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Borussia Mönchengladbach 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Borussia Mönchengladbach are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Borussia Mönchengladbach 47%, draw 26%, SC Paderborn 07 27%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Borussia Mönchengladbach v SC Paderborn 07Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Borussia Mönchengladbach win47%

Draw26%

SC Paderborn 07 win27%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 8

VenueBorussia-Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Borussia Mönchengladbach

SC Paderborn 07

8Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · the German Bundesliga

Last match: 24 Oct · the German Bundesliga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	SC Paderborn 07	7	−3	8
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	7	−11	3

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Borussia Mönchengladbach’s Alexander Blessin plays down hometown significance of first Bundesliga win with new clubGet German Football News · 24 Oct 01:12 · Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach boss praises two heroes of Bundesliga comeback victoryGet German Football News · 24 Oct 00:23 · Borussia Mönchengladbach

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · borussia mönchengladbach winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

47% The market49%

Us47%

~~Market~~49%

We make Borussia Mönchengladbach a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Borussia Mönchengladbach v SC Paderborn 07~~1.65 – 1.20

~~Form · last six in Bundesliga this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 3 v 8~~18 v 12

~~The market · Borussia Mönchengladbach win~~49% · ours 47%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Borussia Mönchengladbach win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Borussia Mönchengladbach win	47%	49%	−2
Draw	26%	24%	+2
SC Paderborn 07 win	27%	27%	0
Over 2.5 goals	54%	64%	−10
Both teams to score	57%	65%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	78%	82%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	32%	44%	−12
Borussia Mönchengladbach or draw	73%	73%	0
Borussia Mönchengladbach clean sheet	31%	–	–
SC Paderborn 07 clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.1 6.0 4.2 1 8.6 12.3 6.7 2.7 2 7.9 9.2 5.5 2.2 3 4.4 5.1 3.0 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Borussia Mönchengladbach down, SC Paderborn 07 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,601 Bundesliga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.5% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 2.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). SC Paderborn 07 away: 0.50 scored, 1.25 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.65 goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 1.20 for SC Paderborn 07. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Bundesliga this season · since 5 Sept

BORUSSIA MÖNCHENGLADBACH

LLLLLW3–4 · 0–5 · 3–4 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 3–2

SC PADERBORN 07

LLWLDW0–1 · 0–3 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Borussia Dortmund	7	+8	17
2	Bayern München	6	+17	14
3	SC Freiburg	6	+9	13
4	Bayer Leverkusen	6	+7	13
5	RB Leipzig	7	+9	12
6	Werder Bremen	7	+1	12
7	FSV Mainz 05	7	+3	10
8	SV Elversberg	7	−3	10
9	FC Augsburg	7	+4	9
10	Hamburger SV	7	−10	9
11	1. FC Köln	7	−3	8
12	SC Paderborn 07	7	−3	8
13	Eintracht Frankfurt	7	−7	8
14	1899 Hoffenheim	6	−3	6
15	VfB Stuttgart	7	−3	6
16	FC Schalke 04	7	−3	6
17	Union Berlin	7	−12	6
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	7	−11	3