Borussia Mönchengladbach v 1899 Hoffenheim prediction · Bundesliga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:02

Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–2 1899 Hoffenheim BORUSSIA MÖNCHENGLADBACH WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Borussia Mönchengladbach win~~42%

~~The market said~~31%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.662

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.453

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Borussia Mönchengladbach win at 42%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Borussia Mönchengladbach 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–24–34
2′KICK-OFF Borussia Mönchengladbach v 1899 Hoffenheim
11′1899 Hoffenheim score on 11′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 21–20–59
11′We said Borussia Mönchengladbach at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–20–59
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–1 1899 Hoffenheim
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Borussia Mönchengladbach win: 42% at kick-off, 21% now
11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' 1899 Hoffenheim win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Borussia Mönchengladbach win 21%)
20′We said Borussia Mönchengladbach at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–21–60
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 0–1 · 17–22–61
40′We said Borussia Mönchengladbach at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–22–63
45′HALF-TIME Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–1 1899 Hoffenheim
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Kevin Diks · Borussia Mönchengladbach
46′SECOND HALF Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–1 1899 Hoffenheim
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Borussia Mönchengladbach win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Fisnik Asllani · 1899 Hoffenheim
49′Borussia Mönchengladbach level it on 49′ through Wael Mohya. 1–1. 1–1 · 35–36–30
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–1 1899 Hoffenheim
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Borussia Mönchengladbach win: 42% at kick-off, 35% now
52′SUBSTITUTION · 51' Borussia Mönchengladbach · On: Shuto Machino · Off: Isac Lidberg
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was 1899 Hoffenheim win 29%)
55′Alexander Prass scores for 1899 Hoffenheim on 54′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 10–23–67
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–2 1899 Hoffenheim
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Borussia Mönchengladbach win: 42% at kick-off, 10% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' 1899 Hoffenheim win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 23%)
57′We said Borussia Mönchengladbach at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–23–68
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Borussia Mönchengladbach · On: Daiki Hashioka · Off: Florian Neuhaus
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' 1899 Hoffenheim · On: Adam Daghim · Off: Fisnik Asllani
71′We said Borussia Mönchengladbach at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–20–76
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Borussia Mönchengladbach win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' 1899 Hoffenheim · On: Ozan Kabak · Off: Tim Lemperle
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' 1899 Hoffenheim · On: Andrej Kramarić · Off: Adam Hložek
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Borussia Mönchengladbach · On: Robin Hack · Off: Hugo Bolin
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Borussia Mönchengladbach · On: Iaia Manco Danfa · Off: Fabio Cristian Chiarodia
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Borussia Mönchengladbach · On: mathieu nguefack · Off: Zento Uno
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Robin Hack · Borussia Mönchengladbach
91′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Alexander Prass · 1899 Hoffenheim
93′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Leon Avdullahu · 1899 Hoffenheim
FTFULL TIME Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–2 1899 Hoffenheim
FTBorussia Mönchengladbach 1–2 1899 Hoffenheim · Borussia Mönchengladbach win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Borussia Mönchengladbach are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Borussia Mönchengladbach 42%, draw 24%, 1899 Hoffenheim 34%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Borussia Mönchengladbach v 1899 HoffenheimBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Borussia Mönchengladbach win42%

Draw24%

1899 Hoffenheim win34%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 6

VenueBorussia-Park

RefereeSoren Storks

Line-ups

Borussia Mönchengladbach

4-4-2

1899 Hoffenheim

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Borussia Mönchengladbach

1899 Hoffenheim

7Days since last match3

Last match: 11 Oct · the German Bundesliga

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
17	1899 Hoffenheim	5	−4	3
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	5	−11	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Borussia Mönchengladbach

4-4-2

1 M. Nicolas

16 P. Sander

4 K. Diks

2 F. C. Chiarodia

26 L. Ullrich

29 J. Scally

47 Z. Uno

10 F. Neuhaus

36 W. Mohya

38 H. Bolin

3 I. Lidberg

Coach · Alexander Blessin

Substitutes

33 · D. Batz

20 · D. Herold

22 · Y. Konoplya

14 · D. Hashioka

7 · K. Stoger

34 · M. Nguefack

18 · S. Machino

25 · R. Hack

39 · I. M. Danfa

1899 Hoffenheim

4-2-3-1

1 O. Baumann

34 V. Coufal

2 R. Hranac

28 K. Machida

39 M. Rots

7 L. Avdullahu

22 A. Prass

20 B. Conte

11 F. Asllani

10 A. Hlozek

19 T. Lemperle

Coach · Christian Ilzer

Substitutes

37 · L. Philipp

5 · O. Kabak

15 · V. Gendrey

47 · V. Lassig

18 · W. Burger

32 · C. Lenz

27 · A. Kramaric

9 · M. Moerstedt

14 · A. Daghim

Our number · borussia mönchengladbach winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

42% The market31%

Us42%

~~Market~~31%

We make Borussia Mönchengladbach a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Borussia Mönchengladbach v 1899 Hoffenheim~~1.85 – 1.66

~~Form · Bundesliga this season · since 29 Aug~~W0 D0 L5 · W1 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 0 v 3~~18 v 17

~~The market · Borussia Mönchengladbach win~~31% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Borussia Mönchengladbach win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 29% to 31% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Borussia Mönchengladbach win	42%	31%	+11
Draw	24%	24%	0
1899 Hoffenheim win	34%	45%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	68%	70%	−2
Both teams to score	69%	70%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	87%	86%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	47%	50%	−3
Borussia Mönchengladbach or draw	66%	55%	+11
Borussia Mönchengladbach clean sheet	19%	–	–
1899 Hoffenheim clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%

0123450 3.9 4.2 4.2 2.3 1 4.7 10.0 7.6 4.2 2 5.1 8.4 7.0 3.9 3 3.1 5.2 4.3 2.4 4 2.4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Borussia Mönchengladbach down, 1899 Hoffenheim across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,592 Bundesliga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.1% of games this season, across 52 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.80 goals a meeting; 9 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 2.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). 1899 Hoffenheim away: 1.17 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.85 goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 1.66 for 1899 Hoffenheim. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.80

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 10

~~Both scored~~9 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BOR 4–0 HOF · HOF 5–1 BOR · BOR 4–4 HOF · HOF 1–2 BOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Bundesliga this season · since 29 Aug

BORUSSIA MÖNCHENGLADBACH

LLLLL0–3 · 3–4 · 0–5 · 3–4 · 1–2

1899 HOFFENHEIM

LLWLL2–3 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bayern München	6	+17	14
2	Borussia Dortmund	6	+7	14
3	SC Freiburg	5	+10	13
4	Bayer Leverkusen	5	+6	10
5	FSV Mainz 05	6	+4	10
6	SV Elversberg	6	+1	10
7	RB Leipzig	6	+5	9
8	Werder Bremen	6	0	9
9	Hamburger SV	6	−9	9
10	FC Augsburg	6	+4	8
11	Eintracht Frankfurt	6	−6	8
12	1. FC Köln	6	−3	7
13	VfB Stuttgart	6	−2	6
14	FC Schalke 04	6	−3	5
15	SC Paderborn 07	6	−4	5
16	Union Berlin	6	−12	5
17	1899 Hoffenheim	5	−4	3
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	5	−11	0