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Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen

Borussia Dortmund

2–2Full time

Werder Bremen

Bundesliga · FRI 9 OCT · Signal Iduna Park

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 22:00

Borussia Dortmund 2–2 Werder Bremen BORUSSIA DORTMUND WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Borussia Dortmund win~~68%

~~The market said~~71%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.133

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.202

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Borussia Dortmund win at 68%.
1′Much as we predicted: Borussia Dortmund was 68% before kick-off and our model makes it 69% now. 0–0 · 69–18–14
1′KICK-OFF Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen
18′SUBSTITUTION · 19' Werder Bremen · On: Oskar Wójcik · Off: Amos Pieper Corrected
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Borussia Dortmund win: 68% at kick-off, 58% now
42′We said Borussia Dortmund at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 56%. 0–0 · 56–29–15
45′SECOND HALF Borussia Dortmund 0–0 Werder Bremen
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Borussia Dortmund · On: Fábio Silva · Off: Ethan Nwaneri Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Werder Bremen · On: Mitchell Weiser · Off: Arthur Augusto De Matos Soares Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Werder Bremen · On: Dariusz Stalmach · Off: Youri Regeer Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Borussia Dortmund · On: Konstantinos Karetsas · Off: Marcel Sabitzer Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Borussia Dortmund · On: Joey Veerman · Off: Jobe Bellingham Corrected
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Borussia Dortmund 1–0 Werder Bremen
79′⚽ GOAL · 80' Borussia Dortmund 1–0 Werder Bremen · Daniel Svensson
80′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Werder Bremen · On: Paul Erevbenagie · Off: Iván San José Cantalejo Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Werder Bremen · On: Mick Schmetgens · Off: Eren Dinkci Corrected
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Borussia Dortmund 2–0 Werder Bremen · Daniel Svensson
84′⚽ GOAL · 85' Borussia Dortmund 2–0 Werder Bremen · Nico Schlotterbeck
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Borussia Dortmund 2–1 Werder Bremen · Nico Schlotterbeck
87′⚽ GOAL · 88' Borussia Dortmund 2–1 Werder Bremen · Ludovit Reis
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Dariusz Stalmach · Werder Bremen
91′⚽ GOAL · 91' Borussia Dortmund 2–2 Werder Bremen · Ludovit Reis
92′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Joey Veerman · Borussia Dortmund
92′⚽ GOAL · 92' Borussia Dortmund 2–2 Werder Bremen · Niclas Füllkrug
94′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Felix Nmecha · Borussia Dortmund
FTFULL TIME Borussia Dortmund 2–2 Werder Bremen
FTBorussia Dortmund 2–2 Werder Bremen · Borussia Dortmund win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Borussia Dortmund win68%

Draw19%

Werder Bremen win13%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Feature | Niko Kovač has restored Borussia Dortmund, but can he make them winners again?Get German Football News · 2 hours ago · Borussia Dortmund PODCAST | Matchday 5 predictions – Augsburg to shock Bayern Munich? Cologne vs. GladbachGet German Football News · 8 hours ago · FC Augsburg, Bayern München, Borussia Dortmund, Werder Bremen

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:30

Venue · Signal Iduna Park

Referee · Christian Dingert

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Borussia Dortmund

3-4-2-1

1 G. Kobel

22 J. Gadou

3 W. Anton

4 N. Schlotterbeck

14 M. Beier

7 J. Bellingham

8 F. Nmecha

24 D. Svensson

18 E. Nwaneri

20 M. Sabitzer

9 S. Guirassy

Coach · Niko Kovac

Substitutes

33 · A. Meyer

49 · L. Reggiani

5 · R. Bensebaini

36 · K. Prates

40 · S. Inacio

25 · J. Veerman

19 · K. Karetsas

21 · F. Silva

41 · M. Albert

Werder Bremen

4-2-3-1

1 K. Hein

13 Arthur

5 A. Pieper

32 M. Friedl

2 O. Deman

15 L. Reis

44 Y. Regeer

18 E. Dinkci

20 Chuki

17 M. Grull

10 N. Fullkrug

Coach · Daniel Thioune

Substitutes

30 · A. Schlager

4 · N. Stark

3 · O. Wojcik

33 · M. Schmetgens

8 · M. Weiser

23 · D. Stalmach

34 · D. Soylu

38 · P. Erevbenagie

26 · C. Itten

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Borussia Dortmund

3-4-2-1

1 G. Kobel

22 J. Gadou

3 W. Anton

4 N. Schlotterbeck

14 M. Beier

7 J. Bellingham

8 F. Nmecha

24 D. Svensson

18 E. Nwaneri

20 M. Sabitzer

9 S. Guirassy

Coach · Niko Kovac

Substitutes

33 · A. Meyer

49 · L. Reggiani

5 · R. Bensebaini

36 · K. Prates

40 · S. Inacio

25 · J. Veerman

19 · K. Karetsas

21 · F. Silva

41 · M. Albert

Werder Bremen

4-2-3-1

1 K. Hein

13 Arthur

5 A. Pieper

32 M. Friedl

2 O. Deman

15 L. Reis

44 Y. Regeer

18 E. Dinkci

20 Chuki

17 M. Grull

10 N. Fullkrug

Coach · Daniel Thioune

Substitutes

30 · A. Schlager

4 · N. Stark

3 · O. Wojcik

33 · M. Schmetgens

8 · M. Weiser

23 · D. Stalmach

34 · D. Soylu

38 · P. Erevbenagie

26 · C. Itten

Our number · borussia dortmund winPublished 9 Oct 19:34

68% The market71%

Us68%

~~Market~~71%

We make Borussia Dortmund a 68% chance to win. The market has them at 71%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · borussia dortmund win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Borussia Dortmund win	68%	71%	−3
Draw	19%	17%	+2
Werder Bremen win	13%	12%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	66%	69%	−3
Both teams to score	58%	58%	0
Over 1.5 goals	86%	85%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	45%	50%	−5
Borussia Dortmund or draw	87%	88%	−1
Borussia Dortmund clean sheet	37%	–	–
Werder Bremen clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 9.6%

0123450 4.2 2.5 1 7.2 8.7 3.9 2 9.6 9.4 4.7 3 7.7 7.6 3.8 4 4.7 4.6 2.3 5 2.3 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Borussia Dortmund down, Werder Bremen across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,576 Bundesliga matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 77.8% of games this season, across 36 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Werder Bremen away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.43 goals for Borussia Dortmund, 0.99 for Werder Bremen. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 19:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~WER 0–2 BOR · BOR 3–0 WER · BOR 2–2 WER · WER 0–0 BOR

Form · last six in Bundesliga

BORUSSIA DORTMUND

WWWWWW3–2 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 3–0 · 1–0

WERDER BREMEN

LLLWDW0–1 · 0–2 · 1–4 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Borussia Dortmund	4	+7	12
2	Bayern München	4	+12	10
3	SC Freiburg	4	+9	10
4	FC Augsburg	4	+5	7
5	Bayer Leverkusen	4	+5	7
6	FSV Mainz 05	4	+4	7
7	SV Elversberg	4	+1	7
8	Werder Bremen	4	0	7
9	RB Leipzig	4	+4	6
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	4	−1	5
11	FC Schalke 04	4	−1	5
12	SC Paderborn 07	4	−2	4
13	1. FC Köln	4	−3	4
14	1899 Hoffenheim	4	−3	3
15	VfB Stuttgart	4	−3	3
16	Hamburger SV	4	−11	3
17	Union Berlin	4	−13	1
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	4	−10	0