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Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt

Borussia Dortmund
1–0Full time
Eintracht Frankfurt

Bundesliga · SAT 24 OCT · Signal Iduna Park

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 20:17
Borussia Dortmund 1–0 Eintracht Frankfurt BORUSSIA DORTMUND WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Borussia Dortmund win62%
The market said64%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.212
The market’s Brier score0.195

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 24 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Borussia Dortmund win at 62%.
  2. 2′Much as we predicted: Borussia Dortmund was 62% before kick-off and our model makes it 62% now. 0–0 · 62–20–17
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt
  4. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Borussia Dortmund win: 62% at kick-off, 52% now
  5. 44′We said Borussia Dortmund at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 50%. 0–0 · 50–31–19
  6. 45′HALF-TIME Borussia Dortmund 0–0 Eintracht Frankfurt
  7. 45′SECOND HALF Borussia Dortmund 0–0 Eintracht Frankfurt
  8. 47′We said Borussia Dortmund at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–32–18
  9. 55′We expected about 3.6 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 45–37–18
  10. 56′We said Borussia Dortmund at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–38–18
  11. 59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Nnamdi Collins · Eintracht Frankfurt
  12. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Borussia Dortmund win: 62% at kick-off, 42% now
  13. 64′We said Borussia Dortmund at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–45–16
  14. 64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Farès Chaïbi · Eintracht Frankfurt
  15. 64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Borussia Dortmund win 42%)
  16. 68′13 shots for Borussia Dortmund, 8 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 35–49–15
  17. 69′We said Borussia Dortmund at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–51–15
  18. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Borussia Dortmund · On: Maximilian Beier · Off: Daniel Svensson
  19. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Borussia Dortmund · On: Ethan Nwaneri · Off: Fábio Silva
  20. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Borussia Dortmund · On: Carney Chukwuemeka · Off: Marcel Sabitzer
  21. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Borussia Dortmund win: 62% at kick-off, 32% now
  22. 74′We said Borussia Dortmund at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–58–13
  23. 75′Borussia Dortmund have had 16 attempts to 8 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 28–60–13
  24. 78′We said Borussia Dortmund at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–65–11
  25. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Eintracht Frankfurt · On: Can Yilmaz Uzun · Off: Younes Ebnoutalib
  26. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Eintracht Frankfurt · On: Ansgar Knauff · Off: Jonathan Burkardt
  27. 79′We published Borussia Dortmund at 62%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
  28. 79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Borussia Dortmund 1–0 Eintracht Frankfurt
  29. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Borussia Dortmund win: 62% at kick-off, 90% now
  30. 79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Borussia Dortmund win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Draw 65%)
  31. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Borussia Dortmund · On: Jobe Bellingham · Off: Felix Nmecha
  32. 81′Maximilian Beier scores for Borussia Dortmund on 80′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 91–8–1
  33. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Borussia Dortmund win: 62% at kick-off, 92% now
  34. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Eintracht Frankfurt · On: Love Arrhov · Off: Farès Chaïbi
  35. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Eintracht Frankfurt · On: Mario Götze · Off: Noel Aseko
  36. 87′We published Borussia Dortmund at 62%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  37. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Eintracht Frankfurt · On: Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab · Off: Ritsu Doan
  38. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Borussia Dortmund · On: Kouakou Joane Gadou · Off: Julian Ryerson
  39. 93′Full time, 1–0. We called Borussia Dortmund at 62% — that one lands. 1–0 · 100–0–0
  40. FTFULL TIME Borussia Dortmund 1–0 Eintracht Frankfurt
  41. FTBorussia Dortmund 1–0 Eintracht Frankfurt · Borussia Dortmund win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Borussia Dortmund are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Borussia Dortmund 62%, draw 20%, Eintracht Frankfurt 17%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht FrankfurtBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Borussia Dortmund win62%
Draw20%
Eintracht Frankfurt win17%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 7

VenueSignal Iduna Park

RefereeSven Jablonski

Line-ups

Borussia Dortmund

3-4-2-1

Eintracht Frankfurt

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Borussia Dortmund

Eintracht Frankfurt

4Days since last match8

Last match: 20 Oct · UEFA Champions League

Last match: 16 Oct · the German Bundesliga

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Borussia Dortmund6+714
11Eintracht Frankfurt6−68

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Borussia Dortmund

3-4-2-1

1 G. Kobel

4 N. Schlotterbeck

3 W. Anton

5 R. Bensebaïni

26 J. Ryerson

20 M. Sabitzer

8 F. Nmecha

24 D. Svensson

21 Fábio Silva

25 J. Veerman

9 S. Guirassy

Coach · N. Kovač

Substitutes

18 · E. Nwaneri

33 · A. Meyer

39 · F. Mané

40 · S. Inacio

22 · Kouakou Joane Gadou

44 · E. de Pina Duarte dos Santos

17 · C. Chukwuemeka

7 · J. Bellingham

14 · M. Beier

Eintracht Frankfurt

4-4-2

1 N. Atubolu

34 N. Collins

4 R. Koch

3 L. Brassier

2 Elias Baum

20 R. Dōan

15 N. Aséko Nkili

25 R. Onyedika

8 F. Chaïbi

11 Y. Ebnoutalib

9 J. Burkardt

Coach · A. Hütter

Substitutes

42 · C. Uzun

37 · J. Maluze

26 · K. Kosugi

7 · A. Knauff

40 · Kauã Santos

6 · O. Højlund

27 · M. Götze

31 · L. Arrhov

29 · A. Amaimouni

Our number · borussia dortmund winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 24 Oct 03:51 · locked at kick-off
62% The market64%
Us62%
Market64%

We make Borussia Dortmund a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.4–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt2.36 – 1.19
Form · Bundesliga this season · since 29 AugW4 D2 L0 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 14 v 82 v 11
The market · Borussia Dortmund win64% · ours 62%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
60%65%70% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 16:49
Our probability · Borussia Dortmund win The market, margin stripped

Published at 63%, 62% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Borussia Dortmund win62%64%−2
Draw20%19%+1
Eintracht Frankfurt win17%17%0
Over 2.5 goals69%70%−1
Both teams to score64%64%0
Over 1.5 goals88%86%+2
Over 3.5 goals47%50%−3
Borussia Dortmund or draw83%83%0
Borussia Dortmund clean sheet30%––
Eintracht Frankfurt clean sheet10%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.4%
0123450 3.7 2.7 2.1 1 6.1 8.8 4.8 2 8.0 9.4 5.6 2.2 3 6.2 7.4 4.4 4 3.7 4.4 2.6 5 2.1
under 2% 5% 12%+Borussia Dortmund down, Eintracht Frankfurt across0–5 goals a side shown (96.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting3.90
Over 2.57 of 10
Both scored7 of 10
Last meetingsBOR 3–2 EIN · EIN 3–3 BOR · EIN 1–1 BOR · EIN 2–0 BOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Bundesliga this season · since 29 Aug

BORUSSIA DORTMUND

WWWWDD2–0 · 3–2 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 0–0

EINTRACHT FRANKFURT

DLWDLW3–3 · 1–4 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 0–6 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Bayern München6+1714
2Borussia Dortmund6+714
3SC Freiburg6+913
4Bayer Leverkusen6+713
5FSV Mainz 056+410
6SV Elversberg6+110
7RB Leipzig6+59
8Werder Bremen609
9Hamburger SV6−99
10FC Augsburg6+48
11Eintracht Frankfurt6−68
121. FC Köln6−37
131899 Hoffenheim6−36
14VfB Stuttgart7−36
15FC Schalke 046−35
16SC Paderborn 076−45
17Union Berlin6−125
18Borussia Mönchengladbach7−113

The competition's standings before kick-off.