Bayern München v RB Leipzig prediction · Bundesliga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 20:08

Bayern München 6–1 RB Leipzig BAYERN MÜNCHEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bayern München win~~68%

~~The market said~~80%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.156

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.063

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bayern München win at 68%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Bayern München 68% before kick-off, 68% now. 0–0 · 68–17–15
1′KICK-OFF Bayern München v RB Leipzig
13′Luis Díaz scores for Bayern München on 12′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 84–10–6
13′⚽ GOAL · 12' Bayern München 1–0 RB Leipzig · Luis Díaz
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Bayern München win: 68% at kick-off, 84% now
14′We said Bayern München at 68% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–0 · 84–10–6
26′We said Bayern München at 68% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–4–1
26′26′: Aleksandar Pavlović on the scoresheet for Bayern München, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 94–4–1
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Bayern München 2–0 RB Leipzig
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Bayern München win: 68% at kick-off, 94% now
27′We said Bayern München at 68% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Bayern München 3–0 RB Leipzig
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Bayern München win: 68% at kick-off, 99% now
36′Bayern München ahead on 34′ through Michael Olise. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
45′HALF-TIME Bayern München 3–0 RB Leipzig
46′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Kim Min-Jae · Bayern München
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' RB Leipzig · On: Nicolas Seiwald · Off: Ezechiel Banzuzi
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' RB Leipzig · On: Tidiam Gomis · Off: Christopher Nkunku
46′SECOND HALF Bayern München 3–0 RB Leipzig
48′We said Bayern München at 68% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Bayern München 4–0 RB Leipzig
49′Luis Díaz scores for Bayern München on 47′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
52′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Konrad Laimer · Bayern München
53′5 goals already, more than the 4.1 we expected for the whole match. 5–0 · 100–0–0
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Bayern München 5–0 RB Leipzig
54′53′: Harry Kane on the scoresheet for Bayern München, making it 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
54′52′: Harry Kane on the scoresheet for Bayern München, making it 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Bayern München · On: Tom Bischof · Off: Aleksandar Pavlović
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Bayern München · On: Josip Stanišić · Off: Konrad Laimer
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' RB Leipzig · On: Benjamin Henrichs · Off: Lukas Klostermann
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Bayern München · On: Serge Gnabry · Off: Ismael Saibari
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' RB Leipzig · On: Rômulo José Cardoso da Cruz · Off: Antonio Nusa
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Bayern München · On: Lennart Karl · Off: Harry Kane
70′That is 6, and we only asked for 4.1 across ninety minutes. 6–0 · 100–0–0
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Bayern München 6–0 RB Leipzig
71′Bayern München ahead on 69′ through Luis Díaz. 6–0. 6–0 · 100–0–0
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' RB Leipzig · On: Andrija Maksimović · Off: Rocco Reitz
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Bayern München · On: Sacha Boey · Off: Kim Min-Jae
92′Andrija Maksimović scores for RB Leipzig on 90′ — 6–1. 6–1 · 100–0–0
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Bayern München 6–1 RB Leipzig · Andrija Maksimović
93′7 goals already, more than the 4.1 we expected for the whole match. 6–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Bayern München 6–1 RB Leipzig
FTBayern München 6–1 RB Leipzig · Bayern München win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bayern München are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bayern München 68%, draw 17%, RB Leipzig 15%. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Bayern München v RB LeipzigBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Bayern München win68%

Draw17%

RB Leipzig win15%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 6

VenueAllianz Arena

RefereeTobias Stieler

Line-ups

Bayern München

4-2-3-1

RB Leipzig

4-5-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bayern München

RB Leipzig

4Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · UEFA Champions League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Bayern München	5	+12	11
5	RB Leipzig	5	+10	9

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Arsenal eye shock transfer for Bayern Munich flop with backroom figure leading the chargeMirror Football · 16 Oct 10:05 · Arsenal, Bayern München

Arsenal news: Bayern Munich transfer interest emerges as club forced to issue statementMirror Football · 16 Oct 04:00 · Arsenal, Bayern München

RB Leipzig ready for Bayern Munich clash: ‘We have a lot of confidence’ – Maarten VandevoordtGet German Football News · 15 Oct 12:59 · RB Leipzig, Bayern München Gruda scores only goal as RB Leipzig edge past PSVBBC Sport · 14 Oct 22:01 · RB Leipzig

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Bayern München

4-2-3-1

40 J. Urbig

27 K. Laimer

2 D. Upamecano

3 Kim Min-Jae

11 N. Brown

6 J. Kimmich

45 A. Pavlovic

17 M. Olise

34 I. Saibari

14 L. Diaz

9 H. Kane

Coach · Vincent Kompany

Substitutes

26 · S. Ulreich

4 · J. Tah

19 · A. Davies

21 · H. Ito

44 · J. Stanisic

23 · S. Boey

8 · T. Bischof

42 · L. Karl

7 · S. Gnabry

RB Leipzig

4-5-1

26 M. Vandevoordt

16 L. Klostermann

4 W. Orban

23 C. Lukeba

22 D. Raum

10 B. Gruda

20 R. Reitz

21 N. El Aynaoui

6 E. Banzuzi

7 A. Nusa

28 C. Nkunku

Coach · Martin Demichelis

Substitutes

1 · O. Nyland

35 · M. Finkgrafe

39 · B. Henrichs

3 · M. Esteve

30 · A. Maksimovic

17 · R. Baku

13 · N. Seiwald

40 · Romulo Cardoso

27 · T. Gomis

Our number · bayern münchen winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

68% The market80%

Us68%

~~Market~~80%

We make Bayern München a 68% chance to win. The market has them at 80%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.8–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bayern München v RB Leipzig~~2.77 – 1.28

~~Form · Bundesliga this season · since 28 Aug~~W3 D2 L0 · W3 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 9~~3 v 5

~~The market · Bayern München win~~80% · ours 68%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bayern München win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 76% to 80% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bayern München win	68%	80%	−12
Draw	17%	12%	+5
RB Leipzig win	15%	9%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	77%	84%	−7
Both teams to score	68%	69%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	92%	94%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	58%	72%	−14
Bayern München or draw	85%	91%	−6
Bayern München clean sheet	28%	–	–
RB Leipzig clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.5%

0123450 2.4 1 4.2 6.8 4.0 2 6.7 8.5 5.4 2.3 3 6.1 7.8 5.0 2.2 4 4.3 5.4 3.5 5 2.4 3.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Bayern München down, RB Leipzig across0–5 goals a side shown (93.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,586 Bundesliga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.1% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.20 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bayern München at home: 4.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). RB Leipzig away: 1.33 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.77 goals for Bayern München, 1.28 for RB Leipzig. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.20

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BAY 2–0 RBL · RBL 1–5 BAY · BAY 6–0 RBL · RBL 3–3 BAY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Bundesliga this season · since 28 Aug

BAYERN MÜNCHEN

WDWWD5–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 7–0 · 2–2

RB LEIPZIG

WLWLW3–0 · 1–3 · 5–0 · 0–2 · 6–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	SC Freiburg	5	+10	13
2	Borussia Dortmund	5	+7	13
3	Bayern München	5	+12	11
4	Bayer Leverkusen	5	+6	10
5	RB Leipzig	5	+10	9
6	FC Augsburg	5	+5	8
7	Werder Bremen	5	0	8
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	6	−6	8
9	FSV Mainz 05	5	+3	7
10	SV Elversberg	5	0	7
11	1. FC Köln	6	−3	7
12	VfB Stuttgart	5	−1	6
13	Hamburger SV	5	−10	6
14	FC Schalke 04	5	−2	5
15	SC Paderborn 07	5	−4	4
16	Union Berlin	5	−12	4
17	1899 Hoffenheim	5	−4	3
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	5	−11	0