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Bayern München v Borussia Dortmund
Bayern MünchenBorussia DortmundBundesliga · SAT 31 OCT · Allianz Arena
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Bayern München are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Bayern München 64%, draw 19%, Borussia Dortmund 17%. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 69%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off
Bayern München win64%Borussia Dortmund win17%Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 17:30
RoundMatchday 8
VenueAllianz Arena
Match timeline
All events
Bayern MünchenMINBorussia DortmundEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Bayern München
Borussia Dortmund
Last match: 21 Oct · UEFA Champions League
Last match: 24 Oct · the German Bundesliga
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | +8 | 17 |
| 2 | Bayern München | 6 | +17 | 14 |
Vincent Kompany sidelined 'for weeks' after collapse at Bayern Munich training groundEvening Standard · · Bayern München
FEATURE | A decisive week for Borussia Dortmund and Niko KovačGet German Football News · · Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund offer incentives for fans to stay off their phones during Bundesliga matchesGet German Football News · · Borussia Dortmund Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Bayern München a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 71%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.6–1.3.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 71% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München win | 64% | 71% | −7 |
| Draw | 19% | 16% | +3 |
| Borussia Dortmund win | 17% | 13% | +4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 77% | −2 |
| Both teams to score | 69% | 67% | +2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91% | 91% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 56% | 61% | −5 |
| Bayern München or draw | 83% | 87% | −4 |
| Bayern München clean sheet | 26% | – | – |
| Borussia Dortmund clean sheet | 8% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Bundesliga this season · since 28 Aug
BAYERN MÜNCHEN
BORUSSIA DORTMUND
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | +8 | 17 |
| 2 | Bayern München | 6 | +17 | 14 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 6 | +9 | 13 |
| 4 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 6 | +7 | 13 |
| 5 |  RB Leipzig | 7 | +9 | 12 |
| 6 |  Werder Bremen | 7 | +1 | 12 |
| 7 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 7 | +3 | 10 |
| 8 |  SV Elversberg | 7 | −3 | 10 |
| 9 |  FC Augsburg | 7 | +4 | 9 |
| 10 |  Hamburger SV | 7 | −10 | 9 |
| 11 |  1. FC Köln | 7 | −3 | 8 |
| 12 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 7 | −3 | 8 |
| 13 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | −7 | 8 |
| 14 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 6 | −3 | 6 |
| 15 |  VfB Stuttgart | 7 | −3 | 6 |
| 16 |  FC Schalke 04 | 7 | −3 | 6 |
| 17 |  Union Berlin | 7 | −12 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 7 | −11 | 3 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.