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Bayer Leverkusen v VfB Stuttgart
Bayer LeverkusenVfB StuttgartBundesliga · SAT 31 OCT · BayArena
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Bayer Leverkusen are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Bayer Leverkusen 56%, draw 22%, VfB Stuttgart 23%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 66%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off
Bayer Leverkusen win56%VfB Stuttgart win23%Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 14:30
RoundMatchday 8
VenueBayArena
Match timeline
All events
Bayer LeverkusenMINVfB StuttgartEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Bayer Leverkusen
VfB Stuttgart
Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League
Last match: 23 Oct · the German Bundesliga
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 6 | +7 | 13 |
| 15 | VfB Stuttgart | 7 | −3 | 6 |
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Bayer Leverkusen a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.4.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen win | 56% | 53% | +3 |
| Draw | 22% | 22% | 0 |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 23% | 25% | −2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 72% | −3 |
| Both teams to score | 66% | 70% | −4 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88% | 86% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47% | 53% | −6 |
| Bayer Leverkusen or draw | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet | 26% | – | – |
| VfB Stuttgart clean sheet | 11% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Bundesliga this season · since 29 Aug
BAYER LEVERKUSEN
VFB STUTTGART
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Borussia Dortmund | 7 | +8 | 17 |
| 2 |  Bayern München | 6 | +17 | 14 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 6 | +9 | 13 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 6 | +7 | 13 |
| 5 |  RB Leipzig | 7 | +9 | 12 |
| 6 |  Werder Bremen | 7 | +1 | 12 |
| 7 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 7 | +3 | 10 |
| 8 |  SV Elversberg | 7 | −3 | 10 |
| 9 |  FC Augsburg | 7 | +4 | 9 |
| 10 |  Hamburger SV | 7 | −10 | 9 |
| 11 |  1. FC Köln | 7 | −3 | 8 |
| 12 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 7 | −3 | 8 |
| 13 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | −7 | 8 |
| 14 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 6 | −3 | 6 |
| 15 | VfB Stuttgart | 7 | −3 | 6 |
| 16 |  FC Schalke 04 | 7 | −3 | 6 |
| 17 |  Union Berlin | 7 | −12 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 7 | −11 | 3 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.