Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Bayer Leverkusen win at 61%.
2. 1′KICK-OFF Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg
3. 2′Much as we predicted: Bayer Leverkusen was 61% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–22–18
4. 13′We said Bayer Leverkusen at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–1 · 34–24–42
5. 13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Bayer Leverkusen 0–1 SC Freiburg
6. 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Bayer Leverkusen win: 61% at kick-off, 34% now
7. 13′THE CALL SWINGS · 13' SC Freiburg win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Bayer Leverkusen win 34%)
8. 15′14′: Derry Lionel Scherhant on the scoresheet for SC Freiburg, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 34–24–42
9. 19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Bayer Leverkusen 1–1 SC Freiburg
10. 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Bayer Leverkusen win: 61% at kick-off, 57% now
11. 19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Bayer Leverkusen win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was SC Freiburg win 19%)
12. 20′Bayer Leverkusen level it on 19′ through Ibrahim Maza. 1–1. 1–1 · 56–25–19
13. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Bayer Leverkusen win: 61% at kick-off, 51% now
14. 40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Philipp Treu · SC Freiburg
15. 42′We said Bayer Leverkusen at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 1–1 · 49–32–19
16. 44′Goals are coming at about the 3.3 we expected. 1–1 · 49–32–19
17. 45′SECOND HALF Bayer Leverkusen 1–1 SC Freiburg
18. 50′HALF-TIME Bayer Leverkusen 1–1 SC Freiburg
19. 53′We said Bayer Leverkusen at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–37–18
20. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Bayer Leverkusen win: 61% at kick-off, 41% now
21. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Bayer Leverkusen · On: Nathan Tella · Off: Afonso Moreira
22. 61′We said Bayer Leverkusen at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–44–17
23. 61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Bayer Leverkusen win 39%)
24. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' SC Freiburg · On: Lukas Kübler · Off: Philipp Treu
25. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' SC Freiburg · On: Lucas Höler · Off: Keisuke Goto
26. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Bayer Leverkusen win: 61% at kick-off, 31% now
27. 73′We said Bayer Leverkusen at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–58–13
28. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Bayer Leverkusen · On: Malik Tillman · Off: Moussa Diaby
29. 75′We published Bayer Leverkusen at 61%. Our model now makes it 88%. 2–1 · 88–11–1
30. 75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Bayer Leverkusen 2–1 SC Freiburg
31. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Bayer Leverkusen win: 61% at kick-off, 88% now
32. 75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Bayer Leverkusen win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Draw 11%)
33. 77′Patrik Schick scores for Bayer Leverkusen on 76′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 89–10–1
34. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' SC Freiburg · On: Patrick Osterhage · Off: Yannick Engelhardt
35. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' SC Freiburg · On: Cyriaque Irié · Off: Jan-Niklas Beste
36. 79′We published Bayer Leverkusen at 61%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
37. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Bayer Leverkusen win: 61% at kick-off, 91% now
38. 86′We published Bayer Leverkusen at 61%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
39. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Bayer Leverkusen · On: Jonas Hofmann · Off: Ibrahim Maza
40. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' SC Freiburg · On: Vincenzo Grifo · Off: Derry Lionel Scherhant
41. 93′Full time, 2–1. We called Bayer Leverkusen at 61% — that one lands. 2–1 · 100–0–0
42. FTFULL TIME Bayer Leverkusen 2–1 SC Freiburg
43. FTBayer Leverkusen 2–1 SC Freiburg · Bayer Leverkusen win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.