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1899 Hoffenheim v Hamburger SV

1899 Hoffenheim

2–3Full time

Hamburger SV

Bundesliga · SAT 10 OCT · Prezero Arena

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

1899 Hoffenheim 2–3 Hamburger SV 1899 HOFFENHEIM WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said 1899 Hoffenheim win~~57%

~~The market said~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.018

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.218

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 47 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said 1899 Hoffenheim win at 57%.
2′Much as we predicted: 1899 Hoffenheim was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 58–21–21
2′KICK-OFF 1899 Hoffenheim v Hamburger SV
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' 1899 Hoffenheim 0–1 Hamburger SV
12′Hamburger SV ahead on 12′ through Yussuf Poulsen. 0–1. 0–1 · 32–24–44
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' 1899 Hoffenheim 0–1 Hamburger SV · Yussuf Poulsen
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' 1899 Hoffenheim win: 57% at kick-off, 32% now
12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' Hamburger SV win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was 1899 Hoffenheim win 32%)
14′We said 1899 Hoffenheim at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 31%. 0–1 · 31–24–44
20′We said 1899 Hoffenheim at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–25–46
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' 1899 Hoffenheim win: 57% at kick-off, 27% now
33′We said 1899 Hoffenheim at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–26–49
41′SUBSTITUTION · 41' Hamburger SV · On: Miro Muheim · Off: Nicolai Remberg Corrected
45′SECOND HALF 1899 Hoffenheim 1–1 Hamburger SV
46′Bambasé Conté scores for 1899 Hoffenheim on 45′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 46–34–20
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' 1899 Hoffenheim 1–1 Hamburger SV · Bambasé Conté
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' 1899 Hoffenheim win: 57% at kick-off, 46% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' 1899 Hoffenheim win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Hamburger SV win 20%)
51′We said 1899 Hoffenheim at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–37–20
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' 1899 Hoffenheim 1–1 Hamburger SV · Sebastiaan Bornauw
52′1899 Hoffenheim have had 12.0 attempts to 7.0 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 46–33–20
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' 1899 Hoffenheim 2–1 Hamburger SV · Sebastiaan Bornauw
54′⚽ GOAL · 53' 1899 Hoffenheim 2–1 Hamburger SV · Bambasé Conté (assist Fisnik Asllani)
57′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Bernardo Fernandes da Silva Junior · 1899 Hoffenheim
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Hamburger SV · On: Otto Emerson Stange · Off: Yussuf Poulsen Corrected
62′SUBSTITUTION · 63' 1899 Hoffenheim · On: Adam Hložek · Off: Tim Lemperle Corrected
65′🟥 RED CARD · 65' 1899 Hoffenheim
66′🟥 RED CARD · 65' Bernardo Fernandes da Silva Junior · 1899 Hoffenheim
73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' 1899 Hoffenheim · On: Robin Hranáč · Off: Koki Machida Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' 1899 Hoffenheim · On: Alexander Prass · Off: Adam Daghim Corrected
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Hamburger SV · On: Alexander Rossing Lelesiit · Off: Louis Pepe Lemke Corrected
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Hamburger SV · On: Terem Moffi · Off: Martin Adeline Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Hamburger SV · On: Kofi Jeremy Amoako · Off: Albert Sambi Lokonga Corrected
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' 1899 Hoffenheim 2–2 Hamburger SV · Bambasé Conté
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' 1899 Hoffenheim 2–2 Hamburger SV · Otto Emerson Stange
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' 1899 Hoffenheim 2–2 Hamburger SV · Terem Moffi
86′⚽ GOAL · 12' 1899 Hoffenheim 2–2 Hamburger SV · Yussuf Poulsen
86′SUBSTITUTION · 41' Hamburger SV · On: Miro Muheim · Off: Nicolai Remberg Corrected
86′⚽ GOAL · 51' 1899 Hoffenheim 2–2 Hamburger SV · Sebastiaan Bornauw
86′⚽ GOAL · 53' 1899 Hoffenheim 2–2 Hamburger SV · Bambasé Conté (assist Fisnik Asllani)
86′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Bernardo Fernandes da Silva Junior · 1899 Hoffenheim
86′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Hamburger SV · On: Otto Emerson Stange · Off: Yussuf Poulsen Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 63' 1899 Hoffenheim · On: Andrej Kramarić · Off: Fisnik Asllani Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 63' 1899 Hoffenheim · On: Adam Hložek · Off: Tim Lemperle Corrected
86′🟥 RED CARD · 65' Bernardo Fernandes da Silva Junior · 1899 Hoffenheim
86′SUBSTITUTION · 74' 1899 Hoffenheim · On: Robin Hranáč · Off: Koki Machida Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 74' 1899 Hoffenheim · On: Alexander Prass · Off: Adam Daghim Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Hamburger SV · On: Alexander Rossing Lelesiit · Off: Louis Pepe Lemke Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Hamburger SV · On: Terem Moffi · Off: Martin Adeline Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Hamburger SV · On: Kofi Jeremy Amoako · Off: Albert Sambi Lokonga Corrected
86′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Leon Avdullahu · 1899 Hoffenheim
86′⚽ GOAL · 83' 1899 Hoffenheim 2–2 Hamburger SV · Terem Moffi (assist Miro Muheim)
86′SUBSTITUTION · 87' 1899 Hoffenheim · On: Valentin Gendrey · Off: Bambasé Conté Corrected
93′⚽ GOAL · 93' 1899 Hoffenheim 2–3 Hamburger SV · Terem Moffi
93′⚽ GOAL · 94' 1899 Hoffenheim 2–3 Hamburger SV · Miro Muheim
FTFULL TIME 1899 Hoffenheim 2–3 Hamburger SV
FT1899 Hoffenheim 2–3 Hamburger SV · 1899 Hoffenheim win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

1899 Hoffenheim win57%

Draw23%

Hamburger SV win20%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:30

Venue · Prezero Arena

Referee · Harm Osmers

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

1899 Hoffenheim

4-2-3-1

1 O. Baumann

34 V. Coufal

5 O. Kabak

28 K. Machida

13 Bernardo

7 L. Avdullahu

18 W. Burger

20 B. Conte

11 F. Asllani

14 A. Daghim

19 T. Lemperle

Coach · Christian Ilzer

Substitutes

37 · L. Philipp

2 · R. Hranac

15 · V. Gendrey

39 · M. Rots

22 · A. Prass

17 · N. De Cat

27 · A. Kramaric

10 · A. Hlozek

9 · M. Moerstedt

Hamburger SV

3-5-1-1

1 D. Heuer Fernandes

24 N. Capaldo

33 S. Bornauw

17 W. Omari

3 D. Wolfe

6 A. S. Lokonga

21 N. Remberg

5 M. Adeline

37 L. Lemke

20 F. Vieira

15 Y. Poulsen

Coach · Merlin Polzin

Substitutes

12 · S. Tangvik

23 · J. Torunarigha

28 · M. Muheim

38 · A. Rossing-Lelesiit

43 · S. Nandja

22 · K. Amoako

10 · I. Pherai

19 · O. Stange

9 · T. Moffi

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

1899 Hoffenheim

4-2-3-1

1 O. Baumann

34 V. Coufal

5 O. Kabak

28 K. Machida

13 Bernardo

7 L. Avdullahu

18 W. Burger

20 B. Conte

11 F. Asllani

14 A. Daghim

19 T. Lemperle

Coach · Christian Ilzer

Substitutes

37 · L. Philipp

2 · R. Hranac

15 · V. Gendrey

39 · M. Rots

22 · A. Prass

17 · N. De Cat

27 · A. Kramaric

10 · A. Hlozek

9 · M. Moerstedt

Hamburger SV

3-5-1-1

1 D. Heuer Fernandes

24 N. Capaldo

33 S. Bornauw

17 W. Omari

3 D. Wolfe

6 A. S. Lokonga

21 N. Remberg

5 M. Adeline

37 L. Lemke

20 F. Vieira

15 Y. Poulsen

Coach · Merlin Polzin

Substitutes

12 · S. Tangvik

23 · J. Torunarigha

28 · M. Muheim

38 · A. Rossing-Lelesiit

43 · S. Nandja

22 · K. Amoako

10 · I. Pherai

19 · O. Stange

9 · T. Moffi

Our number · 1899 hoffenheim winPublished 10 Oct 14:40

57% The market67%

Us57%

~~Market~~67%

We make 1899 Hoffenheim a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · 1899 hoffenheim win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 66% to 67% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
1899 Hoffenheim win	57%	67%	−10
Draw	23%	19%	+4
Hamburger SV win	20%	14%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	64%	67%	−3
Both teams to score	62%	60%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	85%	85%	0
Over 3.5 goals	42%	47%	−6
1899 Hoffenheim or draw	80%	86%	−6
1899 Hoffenheim clean sheet	31%	–	–
Hamburger SV clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.8 3.5 2.7 1 6.9 10.2 5.5 2.2 2 8.2 9.6 5.7 2.3 3 5.8 6.8 4.0 4 3.1 3.6 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+1899 Hoffenheim down, Hamburger SV across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,577 Bundesliga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 78.4% of games this season, across 37 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

1899 Hoffenheim at home: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Hamburger SV away: 0.67 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.11 goals for 1899 Hoffenheim, 1.19 for Hamburger SV. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 14:33. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~HAM 1–2 HOF · HOF 4–1 HAM

Form · last six in Bundesliga

1899 HOFFENHEIM

WLLLWL1–0 · 0–4 · 2–3 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 1–3

HAMBURGER SV

WDLLLW3–2 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–5 · 0–5 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Borussia Dortmund	5	+7	13
2	Bayern München	4	+12	10
3	SC Freiburg	4	+9	10
4	Werder Bremen	5	0	8
5	FC Augsburg	4	+5	7
6	Bayer Leverkusen	4	+5	7
7	FSV Mainz 05	4	+4	7
8	SV Elversberg	4	+1	7
9	RB Leipzig	4	+4	6
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	4	−1	5
11	FC Schalke 04	4	−1	5
12	SC Paderborn 07	4	−2	4
13	1. FC Köln	4	−3	4
14	1899 Hoffenheim	4	−3	3
15	VfB Stuttgart	4	−3	3
16	Hamburger SV	4	−11	3
17	Union Berlin	4	−13	1
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	4	−10	0