1899 Hoffenheim v Bayer Leverkusen prediction · Bundesliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

1899 HoffenheimDrawBayer Leverkusen

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Bayer Leverkusen 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bayer Leverkusen are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: 1899 Hoffenheim 30%, draw 23%, Bayer Leverkusen 48%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on 1899 Hoffenheim v Bayer LeverkusenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

1899 Hoffenheim win30%

Draw23%

Bayer Leverkusen win48%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 7

VenuePrezero Arena

RefereeDaniel Siebert

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

1899 Hoffenheim

Bayer Leverkusen

3Days since last match3

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Bayer Leverkusen	6	+7	13
14	1899 Hoffenheim	6	−3	6

In the news

from the pressAll ›

PODCAST | Matchday 7 predictions – VfB Stuttgart to get season back on track, Bayer Leverkusen continue strong formGet German Football News · 23 Oct 10:37 · VfB Stuttgart, Bayer Leverkusen FEATURE | Bayer Leverkusen’s rise from a season of chaosGet German Football News · 23 Oct 10:12 · Bayer Leverkusen

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bayer leverkusen winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

48% The market41%

Us48%

~~Market~~41%

We make Bayer Leverkusen a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–2.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · 1899 Hoffenheim v Bayer Leverkusen~~1.57 – 2.03

~~Form · Bundesliga this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 13~~14 v 4

~~The market · Bayer Leverkusen win~~41% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bayer Leverkusen win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
1899 Hoffenheim win	30%	35%	−5
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Bayer Leverkusen win	48%	41%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	69%	69%	0
Both teams to score	69%	70%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	88%	86%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	48%	49%	−1
1899 Hoffenheim or draw	52%	59%	−7
1899 Hoffenheim clean sheet	13%	–	–
Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.5%

0123450 3.6 4.8 5.6 3.8 1 3.6 9.5 8.7 5.9 3.0 2 3.4 6.8 6.8 4.6 2.4 3 3.6 3.6 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+1899 Hoffenheim down, Bayer Leverkusen across0–5 goals a side shown (97.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,601 Bundesliga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.5% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.80 goals a meeting; 9 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

1899 Hoffenheim at home: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Bayer Leverkusen away: 2.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for 1899 Hoffenheim, 2.03 for Bayer Leverkusen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.80

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~HOF 1–0 BAY · BAY 1–2 HOF · BAY 3–1 HOF · HOF 1–4 BAY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Bundesliga this season · since 29 Aug

1899 HOFFENHEIM

LLWLLW2–3 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 2–1

BAYER LEVERKUSEN

LWDWWW2–3 · 4–0 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 4–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Borussia Dortmund	7	+8	17
2	Bayern München	6	+17	14
3	SC Freiburg	6	+9	13
4	Bayer Leverkusen	6	+7	13
5	RB Leipzig	7	+9	12
6	Werder Bremen	7	+1	12
7	FSV Mainz 05	7	+3	10
8	SV Elversberg	7	−3	10
9	FC Augsburg	7	+4	9
10	Hamburger SV	7	−10	9
11	1. FC Köln	7	−3	8
12	SC Paderborn 07	7	−3	8
13	Eintracht Frankfurt	7	−7	8
14	1899 Hoffenheim	6	−3	6
15	VfB Stuttgart	7	−3	6
16	FC Schalke 04	7	−3	6
17	Union Berlin	7	−12	6
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	7	−11	3