1. FC Köln v FC Schalke 04 prediction · Bundesliga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 17:24

1. FC Köln 0–0 FC Schalke 04 1. FC KÖLN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said 1. FC Köln win~~49%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.844

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.843

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said 1. FC Köln win at 49%.
1′Little has changed for our model: 1. FC Köln 49% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–26–25
1′KICK-OFF 1. FC Köln v FC Schalke 04
17′We said 1. FC Köln at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–16–9
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' 1. FC Köln 1–0 FC Schalke 04
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' 1. FC Köln win: 49% at kick-off, 75% now
18′GOAL DISALLOWED · 18' 1. FC Köln
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' 1. FC Köln win: 49% at kick-off, 46% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' 1. FC Köln win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
44′SUBSTITUTION · 43' FC Schalke 04 · On: Janik Bachmann · Off: Soufiane El-Faouzi
44′SUBSTITUTION · 43' FC Schalke 04 · On: Vitalie Becker · Off: Robin Gosens
45′SECOND HALF 1. FC Köln 0–0 FC Schalke 04
49′We said 1. FC Köln at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 37%. 0–0 · 37–40–22
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was 1. FC Köln win 39%)
53′HALF-TIME 1. FC Köln 0–0 FC Schalke 04
53′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Tom Krauß · 1. FC Köln
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.8 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 35–44–21
56′We said 1. FC Köln at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–45–21
64′We said 1. FC Köln at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–52–19
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' 1. FC Köln win: 49% at kick-off, 29% now
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' 1. FC Köln · On: Luca Waldschmidt · Off: Mikey Moore
71′We said 1. FC Köln at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–60–16
72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Junior Dina Ebimbe · FC Schalke 04
77′We said 1. FC Köln at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 18–69–12
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' 1. FC Köln win: 49% at kick-off, 18% now
78′1. FC Köln have had 13 attempts to 8 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 17–71–11
81′We said 1. FC Köln at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–77–9
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' 1. FC Köln · On: Paul Okon-Engstler · Off: Tom Krauß
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' 1. FC Köln · On: Reigan Heskey · Off: Said El Mala
82′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Luka Lochoshvili · 1. FC Köln
84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Vitalie Becker · FC Schalke 04
85′We said 1. FC Köln at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–85–6
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' 1. FC Köln win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Hasan Kuruçay · FC Schalke 04
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' 1. FC Köln · On: Jan Thielmann · Off: Linton Maina
91′We said 1. FC Köln at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' 1. FC Köln · On: Joel Schmied · Off: Luka Lochoshvili
92′0–0 at the end. Our 49% on 1. FC Köln misses, and the record keeps it. 0–0 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME 1. FC Köln 0–0 FC Schalke 04
FT1. FC Köln 0–0 FC Schalke 04 · 1. FC Köln win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

1. FC Köln are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: 1. FC Köln 49%, draw 26%, FC Schalke 04 25%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on 1. FC Köln v FC Schalke 04Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

1. FC Köln win49%

Draw26%

FC Schalke 04 win25%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 7

VenueRheinEnergieStadion

RefereeHarm Osmers

Line-ups

1. FC Köln

4-2-3-1

FC Schalke 04

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

1. FC Köln

FC Schalke 04

8Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · the German Bundesliga

Last match: 17 Oct · the German Bundesliga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	1. FC Köln	6	−3	7
15	FC Schalke 04	6	−3	5

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Schalke 04’s jinxed Maximilian Wöber suffers another injury setbackGet German Football News · 22 Oct 18:38 · FC Schalke 04

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

1. FC Köln

4-2-3-1

1 M. Schwäbe

28 S. Sebulonsen

22 Jahmai Simpson-Pusey

24 L. Lochoshvili

3 B. Sosa

8 Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson

5 T. Krauß

37 L. Maina

47 M. Moore

10 S. El Mala

30 M. Bülter

Coach · René Wagner

Substitutes

17 · A. Castro-Montes

11 · Reigan Heskey

14 · G. Mensah

23 · Paul Michael Junior Okon-Engstler

2 · J. Schmied

29 · J. Thielmann

7 · L. Waldschmidt

20 · R. Zieler

19 · M. El Mala

FC Schalke 04

3-4-2-1

1 L. Karius

5 T. Becker

25 N. Katić

4 H. Kuruçay

29 J. Dina Ebimbe

23 S. El-Faouzi

13 S. Tanaka

8 R. Gosens

20 J. Adamu

24 A. Aouchiche

7 Hwang Hee-Chan

Coach · M. Muslić

Substitutes

33 · Vitalie Becker

10 · E. Džeko

11 · B. Lasme

22 · K. Müller

35 · J. Ndiaye

27 · F. Porath

38 · L. Vozar

14 · J. Bachmann

43 · M. Ayhan

Our number · 1. fc köln winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

49% The market46%

Us49%

~~Market~~46%

We make 1. FC Köln a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · 1. FC Köln v FC Schalke 04~~1.67 – 1.14

~~Form · Bundesliga this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 7 v 5~~12 v 15

~~The market · 1. FC Köln win~~46% · ours 49%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · 1. FC Köln win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
1. FC Köln win	49%	46%	+3
Draw	26%	26%	0
FC Schalke 04 win	25%	29%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	53%	57%	−4
Both teams to score	56%	60%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	78%	79%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	31%	36%	−5
1. FC Köln or draw	75%	71%	+4
1. FC Köln clean sheet	32%	–	–
FC Schalke 04 clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 7.3 5.9 4.0 1 9.1 12.4 6.5 2.5 2 8.4 9.3 5.3 2.0 3 4.7 5.2 2.9 4 2.0 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+1. FC Köln down, FC Schalke 04 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,595 Bundesliga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.5% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

1. FC Köln at home: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). FC Schalke 04 away: 1.50 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for 1. FC Köln, 1.14 for FC Schalke 04. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~FCK 1–0 FCS · FCS 1–3 FCK · FCS 0–0 FCK · FCK 3–1 FCS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Bundesliga this season · since 29 Aug

1. FC KÖLN

WLDLWL3–2 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–1

FC SCHALKE 04

LDWDLL0–3 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bayern München	6	+17	14
2	Borussia Dortmund	6	+7	14
3	SC Freiburg	6	+9	13
4	Bayer Leverkusen	6	+7	13
5	FSV Mainz 05	6	+4	10
6	SV Elversberg	6	+1	10
7	RB Leipzig	6	+5	9
8	Werder Bremen	6	0	9
9	Hamburger SV	6	−9	9
10	FC Augsburg	6	+4	8
11	Eintracht Frankfurt	6	−6	8
12	1. FC Köln	6	−3	7
13	1899 Hoffenheim	6	−3	6
14	VfB Stuttgart	7	−3	6
15	FC Schalke 04	6	−3	5
16	SC Paderborn 07	6	−4	5
17	Union Berlin	6	−12	5
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	7	−11	3