1. FC Köln v Borussia Mönchengladbach prediction · Bundesliga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

1. FC Köln 2–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach 1. FC KÖLN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said 1. FC Köln win~~43%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.481

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.400

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said 1. FC Köln win at 43%.
7′Little has changed for our model: 1. FC Köln 43% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–24–32
9′Little has changed for our model: 1. FC Köln 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–25–32
14′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Marius Bülter · 1. FC Köln
25′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Jan Leszczynski · Borussia Mönchengladbach
26′We said 1. FC Köln at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 1–0 · 69–19–11
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' 1. FC Köln 1–0 Borussia Mönchengladbach
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' 1. FC Köln win: 43% at kick-off, 69% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' 1. FC Köln win: 43% at kick-off, 41% now
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' 1. FC Köln 1–0 Borussia Mönchengladbach · Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson
27′26′ and it is 1–0: Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson on the scoresheet for 1. FC Köln. 1–0 · 69–19–11
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' 1. FC Köln win: 43% at kick-off, 41% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' 1. FC Köln win: 43% at kick-off, 69% now
32′We said 1. FC Köln at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–19–11
34′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 70–20–10
35′26′ and it is 1–0: Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson on the scoresheet for 1. FC Köln. 1–0 · 70–20–10
36′We said 1. FC Köln at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–20–10
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' 1. FC Köln 1–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach · Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' 1. FC Köln win: 43% at kick-off, 38% now
40′Borussia Mönchengladbach ahead on 39′ through Joe Scally. 1–1. 1–1 · 38–33–29
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' 1. FC Köln win: 43% at kick-off, 71% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' 1. FC Köln win: 43% at kick-off, 38% now
40′⚽ GOAL · 39' 1. FC Köln 1–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach · Joe Scally
42′Borussia Mönchengladbach ahead on 39′ through Joe Scally. 1–1. 1–1 · 37–34–29
45′HALF-TIME 1. FC Köln 1–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' 1. FC Köln · On: Tom Krauß · Off: Ellyes Skhiri Corrected
46′SECOND HALF 1. FC Köln 1–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Borussia Mönchengladbach · On: Shuto Machino · Off: Isac Lidberg Corrected
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Borussia Mönchengladbach · On: Wael Mohya · Off: Robin Hack Corrected
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' 1. FC Köln 2–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach · Said El Mala
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Borussia Mönchengladbach · On: Zento Uno · Off: Florian Neuhaus Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' 1. FC Köln · On: Jan Thielmann · Off: Said El Mala Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' 1. FC Köln · On: Joel Schmied · Off: Luka Lochoshvili Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Borussia Mönchengladbach · On: Fritz Fleck · Off: Daiki Hashioka Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Borussia Mönchengladbach · On: Fabio Cristian Chiarodia · Off: Jan Leszczynski Corrected
82′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Zento Uno · Borussia Mönchengladbach
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' 1. FC Köln · On: Imad Rondić · Off: Mikey Moore Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 92' 1. FC Köln · On: Luca Waldschmidt · Off: Linton Maina Corrected
90′🟨 YELLOW · 96' Shuto Machino · Borussia Mönchengladbach
FTFULL TIME 1. FC Köln 2–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach
FT1. FC Köln 2–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach · 1. FC Köln win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

1. FC Köln win43%

Draw25%

Borussia Mönchengladbach win31%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:30

VenueRheinEnergieStadion

RefereeFlorian Badstubner

Line-ups

1. FC Köln

4-3-1-2

Borussia Mönchengladbach

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

1. FC Köln

Borussia Mönchengladbach

22Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	1. FC Köln	4	−3	4
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	4	−10	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Cologne’s René Wagner insists he retains club backing ahead of crucial Bundesliga derbyGet German Football News · 1 day ago · Borussia Mönchengladbach

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

1. FC Köln

4-3-1-2

1 M. Schwabe

28 S. Sebulonsen

22 J. Simpson-Pusey

24 L. Lochoshvili

3 B. Sosa

8 I. Johannesson

6 E. Skhiri

37 L. Maina

47 M. Moore

10 S. El Mala

30 M. Bulter

Coach · Rene Wagner

Substitutes

20 · R. Zieler

14 · G. Mensah

2 · J. Schmied

23 · P. Okon-Engstler

5 · T. Krauss

7 · L. Waldschmidt

29 · J. Thielmann

11 · R. Heskey

15 · I. Rondic

Borussia Mönchengladbach

3-4-2-1

1 M. Nicolas

14 D. Hashioka

4 K. Diks

5 J. Leszczynski

29 J. Scally

16 P. Sander

10 F. Neuhaus

26 L. Ullrich

38 H. Bolin

25 R. Hack

3 I. Lidberg

Coach · Alexander Blessin

Substitutes

33 · D. Batz

20 · D. Herold

2 · F. C. Chiarodia

22 · Y. Konoplya

47 · Z. Uno

36 · W. Mohya

34 · M. Nguefack

18 · S. Machino

27 · F. Fleck

Our number · 1. fc köln winPublished 11 Oct 14:35

43% The market48%

Us43%

~~Market~~48%

We make 1. FC Köln a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · 1. fc köln win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 46% to 48% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
1. FC Köln win	43%	48%	−5
Draw	25%	25%	+1
Borussia Mönchengladbach win	31%	27%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	61%	62%	−1
Both teams to score	63%	63%	0
Over 1.5 goals	83%	82%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	39%	41%	−2
1. FC Köln or draw	69%	73%	−4
1. FC Köln clean sheet	24%	–	–
Borussia Mönchengladbach clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 5.4 5.1 4.4 2.1 1 6.3 11.5 7.5 3.6 2 6.3 9.0 6.4 3.1 3 3.6 5.2 3.7 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+1. FC Köln down, Borussia Mönchengladbach across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,583 Bundesliga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.7% of games this season, across 43 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 4.50 goals a meeting; 7 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

1. FC Köln at home: 2.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 0.67 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.73 goals for 1. FC Köln, 1.44 for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 14:03. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 8

~~Both scored~~7 of 8

~~Last meetings~~FCK 3–3 BOR · BOR 3–1 FCK · BOR 3–3 FCK · FCK 3–1 BOR

Form · last six in Bundesliga

1. FC KÖLN

LLWLDL1–3 · 1–5 · 3–2 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 1–2

BORUSSIA MÖNCHENGLADBACH

LWLLLL1–3 · 4–0 · 0–3 · 3–4 · 0–5 · 3–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Borussia Dortmund	5	+7	13
2	Bayern München	5	+12	11
3	SC Freiburg	4	+9	10
4	Bayer Leverkusen	5	+6	10
5	RB Leipzig	5	+10	9
6	FC Augsburg	5	+5	8
7	Werder Bremen	5	0	8
8	FSV Mainz 05	5	+3	7
9	SV Elversberg	5	0	7
10	VfB Stuttgart	5	−1	6
11	Hamburger SV	5	−10	6
12	FC Schalke 04	4	−1	5
13	Eintracht Frankfurt	5	−7	5
14	1. FC Köln	4	−3	4
15	SC Paderborn 07	5	−4	4
16	Union Berlin	5	−12	4
17	1899 Hoffenheim	5	−4	3
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	4	−10	0