Würzburger Kickers v Waldhof Mannheim prediction · 3. Liga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Würzburger Kickers 2–0 Waldhof Mannheim WALDHOF MANNHEIM WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Waldhof Mannheim win~~38%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.595

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.790

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Waldhof Mannheim win at 38%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Waldhof Mannheim 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 37–25–38
2′KICK-OFF Würzburger Kickers v Waldhof Mannheim
23′🟨 YELLOW · 21' L. Omore · Würzburger Kickers
41′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Owono Darnell Keumo · Waldhof Mannheim
44′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Diego Michel · Waldhof Mannheim
46′We said Waldhof Mannheim at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 1–0 · 68–22–10
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Waldhof Mannheim · On: Francisco Fumaça de Mascarenhas da Costa Pessoa · Off: Lovis Frederik Bierschenk
47′Würzburger Kickers ahead on 44′ through Xaver Kiefersauer. 1–0. 1–0 · 68–22–10
47′⚽ GOAL · 44' Würzburger Kickers 1–0 Waldhof Mannheim · Xaver Kiefersauer
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Waldhof Mannheim win: 38% at kick-off, 10% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+2' Würzburger Kickers win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Waldhof Mannheim win 10%)
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Waldhof Mannheim · On: Nolan Xavier Muteba N'Tumba · Off: Diego Michel
49′We said Waldhof Mannheim at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 69–22–9
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Waldhof Mannheim win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Vincent Thill · Waldhof Mannheim
58′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Tim·Kraus · Würzburger Kickers
62′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Nolan Xavier Muteba N'Tumba · Waldhof Mannheim
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Waldhof Mannheim · On: Terrence Boyd · Off: Oluwaseun Ogbemudia
67′We said Waldhof Mannheim at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–19–4
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Waldhof Mannheim · On: Julian Ulbricht · Off: Gonçalo Gregório
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Würzburger Kickers · On: David Kinsombi · Off: Tim·Kraus
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Würzburger Kickers · On: Burak Karakaya · Off: N. Embaye
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Würzburger Kickers · On: Dominik Meisel · Off: Luke Hemmerich
87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Waldhof Mannheim · On: Djayson Eduardo Cardoso Mendes · Off: Owono Darnell Keumo
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Würzburger Kickers · On: Philipp Ochs · Off: Franck evina
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Würzburger Kickers 2–0 Waldhof Mannheim
91′Tarsis Bonga scores for Würzburger Kickers on 89′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Würzburger Kickers 2–0 Waldhof Mannheim
FTWürzburger Kickers 2–0 Waldhof Mannheim · Waldhof Mannheim win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Waldhof Mannheim just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Würzburger Kickers 37%, draw 24%, Waldhof Mannheim 38%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Würzburger Kickers v Waldhof MannheimBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Würzburger Kickers win37%

Draw24%

Waldhof Mannheim win38%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 10

VenueFlyeralarm Arena

RefereeYannick Sager

Line-ups

Würzburger Kickers

4-4-2

Waldhof Mannheim

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Würzburger Kickers

Waldhof Mannheim

4Days since last match3

Last match: 13 Oct · 3. Liga

Last match: 14 Oct · 3. Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Waldhof Mannheim	9	+2	13
19	Würzburger Kickers	9	−6	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Würzburger Kickers

4-4-2

33 M. Rajkovacic

17 L. Omore

4 N. De Medina

16 L. Breunig

21 L. Hemmerich

37 I. Franjic

27 X. Kiefersauer

6 N. Embaye

18 F. Evina

31 T. Kraus

30 T. Bonga

Coach · Michael Schiele

Substitutes

1 · J. Hipper

34 · B. Karakaya

5 · L. Eberle

8 · D. Kinsombi

25 · D. Meisel

13 · P. Ochs

19 · T. Kastanaras

11 · D. Berisha

9 · J. Nischalke

Waldhof Mannheim

4-3-3

1 T. Nijhuis

25 J. Okeke

3 M. Polte

14 O. Ogbemudia

17 D. Keumo

21 J. Rieckmann

15 C. Kammerknecht

28 D. Michel

7 L. Bierschenk

9 G. Gregorio

12 V. Thill

Coach · Rui Mota

Substitutes

16 · J. Niemann

42 · D. Zimmer

24 · L. Klunter

39 · M. Bauer

13 · T. Boyd

35 · D. Mendes

29 · N. Muteba

10 · J. Ulbricht

11 · Masca

Our number · waldhof mannheim winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:46 · locked at kick-off

38% The market46%

Us38%

~~Market~~46%

We make Waldhof Mannheim a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Würzburger Kickers v Waldhof Mannheim~~1.56 – 1.57

~~Form · last six in 3. Liga this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 8 v 13~~19 v 9

~~The market · Waldhof Mannheim win~~46% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Waldhof Mannheim win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Würzburger Kickers win	37%	28%	+9
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Waldhof Mannheim win	38%	46%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	60%	60%	0
Both teams to score	62%	62%	0
Over 1.5 goals	82%	80%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	38%	39%	−1
Würzburger Kickers or draw	62%	54%	+8
Würzburger Kickers clean sheet	21%	–	–
Waldhof Mannheim clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.0 6.5 5.4 2.9 1 6.4 11.0 8.2 4.3 2 5.3 8.2 6.4 3.4 3 2.8 4.3 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Würzburger Kickers down, Waldhof Mannheim across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,984 3. Liga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.0% of games this season, across 91 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Würzburger Kickers at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Waldhof Mannheim away: 2.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Würzburger Kickers, 1.57 for Waldhof Mannheim. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~WUR 1–2 WAL · WAL 1–1 WUR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Liga this season · since 5 Sept

WÜRZBURGER KICKERS

LLWLLD1–2 · 2–6 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–2

WALDHOF MANNHEIM

LWLWWL0–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 5–1 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MSV Duisburg	9	+15	24
2	FC Viktoria Köln	9	+13	19
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	9	+6	18
4	Hansa Rostock	9	0	15
5	FC Saarbrücken	9	+5	14
6	Fortuna Düsseldorf	9	0	14
7	Stuttgart II	10	−1	14
8	Hoffenheim II	9	+4	13
9	Waldhof Mannheim	9	+2	13
10	Preußen Münster	9	−2	12
11	Verl	9	−3	12
12	Alemannia Aachen	9	−3	11
13	FC Ingolstadt 04	9	−3	11
14	SV Wehen	9	−3	11
15	Fortuna Köln	10	−3	10
16	SV Meppen	9	−5	10
17	SSV Jahn Regensburg	9	+1	9
18	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	9	−7	9
19	Würzburger Kickers	9	−6	8
20	Havelse	9	−10	5