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Würzburger Kickers v Hansa Rostock

Würzburger Kickers

0–2Full time

Hansa Rostock

3. Liga · SAT 10 OCT · Flyeralarm Arena

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Würzburger Kickers 0–2 Hansa Rostock HANSA ROSTOCK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hansa Rostock win~~46%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.438

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.384

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hansa Rostock win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Hansa Rostock 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 31–23–46
1′KICK-OFF Würzburger Kickers v Hansa Rostock
6′🟨 YELLOW · 6' Marco Schuster · Hansa Rostock
16′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Ouassim Karada · Hansa Rostock
29′SUBSTITUTION · 28' Würzburger Kickers · On: L. Omore · Off: David Abrangao
45′SECOND HALF Würzburger Kickers 0–0 Hansa Rostock
46′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Louis Breunig · Würzburger Kickers
47′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Louis Breunig · Würzburger Kickers
61′We said Hansa Rostock at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 24–45–32
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Hansa Rostock win: 46% at kick-off, 32% now
61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Hansa Rostock win 32%)
65′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Würzburger Kickers · On: Luke Hemmerich · Off: Franck evina
65′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Würzburger Kickers · On: Tim·Kraus · Off: Thomas Kastanaras
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Hansa Rostock · On: Emil Holten · Off: Andreas Voglsammer
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Würzburger Kickers · On: Philipp Ochs · Off: David Kinsombi
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Würzburger Kickers 0–1 Hansa Rostock
76′⚽ GOAL · 77' Würzburger Kickers 0–1 Hansa Rostock · Marco Schuster
84′Marco Schuster scores for Hansa Rostock on 76′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 0–8–92
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Hansa Rostock win: 46% at kick-off, 92% now
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Hansa Rostock win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 8%)
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Hansa Rostock · On: Yannick Michaelis · Off: Leon Dajaku
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Niklas Kolle · Hansa Rostock
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Nathan De Medina · Würzburger Kickers
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Hansa Rostock · On: Milosz Brzozowski · Off: Marco Schuster
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Hansa Rostock · On: Franz Pfanne · Off: David Kopacz
91′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Milosz Brzozowski · Hansa Rostock
92′⚽ GOAL · 92' Würzburger Kickers 0–2 Hansa Rostock · Marco Schuster
FTFULL TIME Würzburger Kickers 0–2 Hansa Rostock
FTWürzburger Kickers 0–2 Hansa Rostock · Hansa Rostock win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Würzburger Kickers win31%

Draw23%

Hansa Rostock win46%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

Venue · Flyeralarm Arena

Referee · Wolfgang Haslberger

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Würzburger Kickers

3-5-2

33 M. Rajkovacic

4 N. De Medina

16 L. Breunig

28 E. Farahnak

37 I. Franjic

8 D. Kinsombi

27 X. Kiefersauer

18 F. Evina

3 D. Abrangao

30 T. Bonga

19 T. Kastanaras

Coach · Michael Schiele

Substitutes

1 · J. Hipper

34 · B. Karakaya

5 · L. Eberle

21 · L. Hemmerich

31 · T. Kraus

13 · P. Ochs

7 · E. Muteba

17 · L. Omore

9 · J. Nischalke

Hansa Rostock

4-2-3-1

1 L. Unbehaun

8 O. Karada

15 A. Gurleyen

17 F. Carstens

32 N. Kolle

5 M. Schuster

4 K. Fatkic

35 M. Krauss

27 D. Kopacz

43 L. Dajaku

9 A. Voglsammer

Coach · Andre Breitenreiter

Substitutes

25 · P. Klewin

23 · F. Pfanne

37 · M. Brzozowski

22 · L. Reichardt

42 · B. Dietze

6 · J. Dirkner

7 · B. Lennemann

41 · Y. Michaelis

11 · E. Holten

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Würzburger Kickers

3-5-2

33 M. Rajkovacic

4 N. De Medina

16 L. Breunig

28 E. Farahnak

37 I. Franjic

8 D. Kinsombi

27 X. Kiefersauer

18 F. Evina

3 D. Abrangao

30 T. Bonga

19 T. Kastanaras

Coach · Michael Schiele

Substitutes

1 · J. Hipper

34 · B. Karakaya

5 · L. Eberle

21 · L. Hemmerich

31 · T. Kraus

13 · P. Ochs

7 · E. Muteba

17 · L. Omore

9 · J. Nischalke

Hansa Rostock

4-2-3-1

1 L. Unbehaun

8 O. Karada

15 A. Gurleyen

17 F. Carstens

32 N. Kolle

5 M. Schuster

4 K. Fatkic

35 M. Krauss

27 D. Kopacz

43 L. Dajaku

9 A. Voglsammer

Coach · Andre Breitenreiter

Substitutes

25 · P. Klewin

23 · F. Pfanne

37 · M. Brzozowski

22 · L. Reichardt

42 · B. Dietze

6 · J. Dirkner

7 · B. Lennemann

41 · Y. Michaelis

11 · E. Holten

Our number · hansa rostock winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

46% The market49%

Us46%

~~Market~~49%

We make Hansa Rostock a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · hansa rostock win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 47% to 49% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Würzburger Kickers win	31%	26%	+5
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Hansa Rostock win	46%	49%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	64%	58%	+6
Both teams to score	65%	59%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	84%	79%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	42%	37%	+5
Würzburger Kickers or draw	54%	51%	+3
Würzburger Kickers clean sheet	16%	–	–
Hansa Rostock clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 4.2 6.4 6.2 3.8 1 5.0 10.1 8.8 5.5 2.6 2 4.0 7.1 6.5 4.0 3 3.5 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Würzburger Kickers down, Hansa Rostock across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,964 3. Liga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.2% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Würzburger Kickers at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Hansa Rostock away: 2.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Würzburger Kickers, 1.85 for Hansa Rostock. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 12:59. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 3. Liga

WÜRZBURGER KICKERS

WLLLWL4–0 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 2–6 · 1–0 · 1–2

HANSA ROSTOCK

DWDLWD3–3 · 4–2 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 3–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MSV Duisburg	7	+12	18
2	FC Viktoria Köln	7	+10	15
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	8	+4	15
4	FC Saarbrücken	7	+7	13
5	Hoffenheim II	7	+6	13
6	Hansa Rostock	7	0	12
7	Preußen Münster	8	−1	12
8	Alemannia Aachen	7	+3	11
9	Waldhof Mannheim	7	+1	10
10	Fortuna Düsseldorf	7	−1	10
11	Verl	7	−3	10
12	Fortuna Köln	7	0	9
13	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	7	−3	8
14	FC Ingolstadt 04	7	−4	8
15	Stuttgart II	7	−3	7
16	Würzburger Kickers	7	−4	7
17	SV Meppen	7	−7	6
18	SSV Jahn Regensburg	7	−4	5
19	SV Wehen	7	−8	5
20	Havelse	7	−5	4