Waldhof Mannheim v Hoffenheim II prediction · 3. Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Waldhof MannheimDrawHoffenheim II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Waldhof Mannheim 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Waldhof Mannheim are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Waldhof Mannheim 42%, draw 23%, Hoffenheim II 34%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Waldhof Mannheim v Hoffenheim IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Waldhof Mannheim win42%

Draw23%

Hoffenheim II win34%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 18:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueCarl-Benz-Stadion

RefereeKevin Behrens

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Waldhof Mannheim

Hoffenheim II

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. Liga

Last match: 18 Oct · 3. Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Hoffenheim II	10	+5	16
13	Waldhof Mannheim	10	0	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · waldhof mannheim winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

42% The market42%

Us42%

~~Market~~42%

We make Waldhof Mannheim a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.8–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Waldhof Mannheim v Hoffenheim II~~1.80 – 1.61

~~Form · last six in 3. Liga this season · since 13 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 16~~13 v 7

~~The market · Waldhof Mannheim win~~42% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Waldhof Mannheim win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Waldhof Mannheim win	42%	42%	0
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Hoffenheim II win	34%	34%	0
Over 2.5 goals	66%	66%	0
Both teams to score	67%	67%	0
Over 1.5 goals	86%	84%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	44%	46%	−2
Waldhof Mannheim or draw	66%	66%	0
Waldhof Mannheim clean sheet	20%	–	–
Hoffenheim II clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%

0123450 3.8 4.9 4.3 2.3 1 5.6 10.0 7.6 4.1 2 5.4 8.5 6.8 3.7 3 3.2 5.1 4.1 2.2 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Waldhof Mannheim down, Hoffenheim II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,000 3. Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.5% of games this season, across 107 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Waldhof Mannheim at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Hoffenheim II away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.80 goals for Waldhof Mannheim, 1.61 for Hoffenheim II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~WAL 1–1 HOF · HOF 2–0 WAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Liga this season · since 13 Sept

WALDHOF MANNHEIM

WLWWLL1–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 5–1 · 0–3 · 0–2

HOFFENHEIM II

DWWLLW2–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 2–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MSV Duisburg	11	+14	25
2	FC Viktoria Köln	11	+15	23
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	11	+6	21
4	FC Saarbrücken	10	+7	17
5	Alemannia Aachen	11	0	17
6	FC Ingolstadt 04	11	−1	17
7	Hoffenheim II	10	+5	16
8	Hansa Rostock	11	−2	16
9	SV Wehen	11	+3	15
10	Fortuna Düsseldorf	11	−2	15
11	SV Meppen	11	−1	14
12	Stuttgart II	11	−2	14
13	Waldhof Mannheim	10	0	13
14	Preußen Münster	10	−3	12
15	Verl	11	−6	12
16	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	11	−12	12
17	Würzburger Kickers	11	−8	11
18	SSV Jahn Regensburg	11	0	10
19	Fortuna Köln	10	−3	10
20	Havelse	10	−10	6