Waldhof Mannheim v FC Ingolstadt 04 prediction · 3. Liga

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 20:30

Waldhof Mannheim 0–3 FC Ingolstadt 04 WALDHOF MANNHEIM WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Waldhof Mannheim win~~41%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.649

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.793

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Waldhof Mannheim win at 41%.
1′KICK-OFF Waldhof Mannheim v FC Ingolstadt 04
2′Little has changed for our model: Waldhof Mannheim 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–23–35
14′Waldhof Mannheim are down to ten from 14′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 40–26–34
14′🟥 RED CARD · 14' Waldhof Mannheim
14′🟥 RED CARD · 14' Maximilian Thalhammer · Waldhof Mannheim
44′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Rui Tomás Faustino Pinto da Mota · Waldhof Mannheim
45′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Rui Tomás Faustino Pinto da Mota · Waldhof Mannheim
45′SECOND HALF Waldhof Mannheim 0–0 FC Ingolstadt 04
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Waldhof Mannheim · On: Francisco Fumaça de Mascarenhas da Costa Pessoa · Off: Leroy-Jacques Mickels
50′8.0 shots for FC Ingolstadt 04, 3.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 33–38–29
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Waldhof Mannheim win 33%)
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.2 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 35–35–30
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Waldhof Mannheim win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Lukas Fröde · FC Ingolstadt 04
59′FC Ingolstadt 04 ahead on 59′ through Lars Lokotsch. 0–1. 0–1 · 8–22–70
59′We said Waldhof Mannheim at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 0–1 · 8–22–70
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Waldhof Mannheim 0–1 FC Ingolstadt 04 · Lars Lokotsch
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Waldhof Mannheim win: 41% at kick-off, 8% now
59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' FC Ingolstadt 04 win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Draw 22%)
62′SUBSTITUTION · 63' FC Ingolstadt 04 · On: Obed Chidindu Ugondu · Off: Dennis Kaygin
64′Max Plath scores for FC Ingolstadt 04 on 64′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 6–21–73
65′We said Waldhof Mannheim at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–5–94
65′⚽ GOAL · 64' Waldhof Mannheim 0–2 FC Ingolstadt 04 · Max Plath
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Waldhof Mannheim win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
65′SUBSTITUTION · 66' FC Ingolstadt 04 · On: Josef Ganda · Off: Keanan Bennetts Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' FC Ingolstadt 04 · On: Josef Ganda · Off: Keanan Bennetts
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' FC Ingolstadt 04 · On: Frederik Carlsen · Off: benjamin kanuric
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' FC Ingolstadt 04 · On: Vinko Sapina · Off: Lukas Fröde
69′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Waldhof Mannheim · On: Gonçalo Gregório · Off: Julian Ulbricht
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Waldhof Mannheim · On: Noah Joel Sarenren Bazee · Off: Lovis Frederik Bierschenk
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Waldhof Mannheim · On: Jid Okeke · Off: Lukas Klünter
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' FC Ingolstadt 04 · On: Yannick Deichmann · Off: Max Plath
82′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Josef Ganda · FC Ingolstadt 04
87′88′ and it is 0–2: Obed Chidindu Ugondu on the scoresheet for FC Ingolstadt 04. 0–2 · 0–0–100
88′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 0–3 · 0–0–100
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Waldhof Mannheim 0–3 FC Ingolstadt 04 · Obed Chidindu Ugondu (assist Linus Rosenlocher)
90′🟥 RED CARD · 90' FC Ingolstadt 04
91′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Vinko Sapina · FC Ingolstadt 04
FTFULL TIME Waldhof Mannheim 0–3 FC Ingolstadt 04
FTWaldhof Mannheim 0–3 FC Ingolstadt 04 · Waldhof Mannheim win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Waldhof Mannheim v FC Ingolstadt 04Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 17:28 · locked at kick-off

Waldhof Mannheim win41%

Draw24%

FC Ingolstadt 04 win35%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 18:00

VenueCarl-Benz-Stadion

RefereeTimon Oliver Schulz

Line-ups

Waldhof Mannheim

4-1-4-1

FC Ingolstadt 04

4-4-1-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Waldhof Mannheim

FC Ingolstadt 04

4Days since last match3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Waldhof Mannheim	8	5	13
17	FC Ingolstadt 04	8	-6	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Waldhof Mannheim

4-1-4-1

1 T. Nijhuis

24 L. Klunter

15 C. Kammerknecht

14 O. Ogbemudia

17 D. Keumo

8 M. Thalhammer

7 L. Bierschenk

12 V. Thill

21 J. Rieckmann

23 L. Mickels

10 J. Ulbricht

Coach · Rui Mota

Substitutes

16 · J. Niemann

3 · M. Polte

25 · J. Okeke

28 · D. Michel

13 · T. Boyd

29 · N. Muteba

37 · N. Bazee

9 · G. Gregorio

11 · Masca

FC Ingolstadt 04

4-4-1-1

47 D. Klein

14 M. Plath

6 G. Antzoulas

15 J. Scholz

19 L. Rosenlocher

18 K. Bennetts

37 B. Kanuric

34 L. Frode

28 N. Velupillay

10 D. Kaygin

13 L. Lokotsch

Coach · Achim Beierlorzer

Substitutes

1 · M. Ponath

20 · Y. Deichmann

4 · E. Decker

8 · F. Carlsen

41 · V. Sapina

5 · E. Gul

16 · J. Ganda

7 · Seo Jong-min

17 · O. Ugondu

Our number · waldhof mannheim winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 17:28 · locked at kick-off

41% The market47%

Us41%

~~Market~~47%

We make Waldhof Mannheim a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Waldhof Mannheim v FC Ingolstadt 04~~1.70 – 1.55

~~Last six in 3. Liga~~W3 D0 L3 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 13 v 8~~6 v 17

~~The market · Waldhof Mannheim win~~47% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · waldhof mannheim win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Waldhof Mannheim win	41%	47%	−6
Draw	24%	24%	0
FC Ingolstadt 04 win	35%	28%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	63%	64%	−1
Both teams to score	64%	65%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	84%	83%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	41%	44%	−3
Waldhof Mannheim or draw	65%	72%	−6
Waldhof Mannheim clean sheet	21%	–	–
FC Ingolstadt 04 clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 4.5 5.6 4.7 2.4 1 6.2 10.6 7.8 4.1 2 5.6 8.6 6.6 3.4 3 3.2 4.8 3.7 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Waldhof Mannheim down, FC Ingolstadt 04 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,978 3. Liga matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.9% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.88 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Waldhof Mannheim at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). FC Ingolstadt 04 away: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for Waldhof Mannheim, 1.55 for FC Ingolstadt 04. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.88

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~FCI 5–1 WAL · WAL 2–2 FCI · WAL 0–0 FCI · FCI 2–1 WAL

Form · last six in 3. Liga

WALDHOF MANNHEIM

LLWLWW2–3 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 5–1

FC INGOLSTADT 04

WLWLLL2–0 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 2–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MSV Duisburg	9	15	24
2	FC Viktoria Köln	8	13	18
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	9	6	18
4	Hansa Rostock	9	0	15
5	FC Saarbrücken	9	5	14
6	Waldhof Mannheim	8	5	13
7	Hoffenheim II	9	4	13
8	Preußen Münster	8	-1	12
9	Alemannia Aachen	8	0	11
10	Fortuna Düsseldorf	8	-1	11
11	Stuttgart II	9	-2	11
12	Verl	8	-3	11
13	Fortuna Köln	9	-2	10
14	SV Meppen	9	-5	10
15	SSV Jahn Regensburg	8	1	8
16	Würzburger Kickers	9	-6	8
17	FC Ingolstadt 04	8	-6	8
18	SV Wehen	8	-6	8
19	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	8	-7	8
20	Havelse	9	-10	5