Verl v SV Wehen prediction · 3. Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

VerlDrawSV Wehen

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Verl 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Verl are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Verl 47%, draw 24%, SV Wehen 29%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Verl v SV WehenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Verl win47%

Draw24%

SV Wehen win29%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueSportclub Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Verl

SV Wehen

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · 3. Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	SV Wehen	11	+3	15
15	Verl	11	−6	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · verl winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Verl a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Verl v SV Wehen~~1.80 – 1.38

~~Form · last six in 3. Liga this season · since 15 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 15~~15 v 9

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Verl win	47%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
SV Wehen win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Verl or draw	71%	–	–
Verl clean sheet	25%	–	–
SV Wehen clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 4.8 5.4 4.0 1 7.1 10.8 7.1 3.3 2 6.7 9.2 6.3 2.9 3 4.0 5.5 3.8 4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Verl down, SV Wehen across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,000 3. Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.5% of games this season, across 107 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Verl at home: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). SV Wehen away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.80 goals for Verl, 1.38 for SV Wehen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~SVW 2–1 VER · VER 2–2 SVW · SVW 0–1 VER · VER 2–2 SVW

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Liga this season · since 15 Sept

VERL

DWDDLL1–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–3

SV WEHEN

WLWWDW2–0 · 1–4 · 4–2 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 7–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MSV Duisburg	11	+14	25
2	FC Viktoria Köln	11	+15	23
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	11	+6	21
4	FC Saarbrücken	10	+7	17
5	Alemannia Aachen	11	0	17
6	FC Ingolstadt 04	11	−1	17
7	Hoffenheim II	10	+5	16
8	Hansa Rostock	11	−2	16
9	SV Wehen	11	+3	15
10	Fortuna Düsseldorf	11	−2	15
11	SV Meppen	11	−1	14
12	Stuttgart II	11	−2	14
13	Waldhof Mannheim	10	0	13
14	Preußen Münster	10	−3	12
15	Verl	11	−6	12
16	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	11	−12	12
17	Würzburger Kickers	11	−8	11
18	SSV Jahn Regensburg	11	0	10
19	Fortuna Köln	10	−3	10
20	Havelse	10	−10	6