Verl v SSV Jahn Regensburg prediction · 3. Liga

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 20:30

Verl 2–2 SSV Jahn Regensburg VERL WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Verl win~~51%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.924

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.874

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Verl win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Verl 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–22–26
1′KICK-OFF Verl v SSV Jahn Regensburg
37′SSV Jahn Regensburg find the net on 38′. 0–1. 0–1 · 19–25–56
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Verl 0–1 SSV Jahn Regensburg
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Verl win: 51% at kick-off, 19% now
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' SSV Jahn Regensburg win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Verl win 19%)
39′We said Verl at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–25–57
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Verl 0–2 SSV Jahn Regensburg · Lucas Hermes
44′Oscar Schoenfelder scores for SSV Jahn Regensburg on 45′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 5–12–84
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Verl win: 51% at kick-off, 5% now
45′Oscar Schoenfelder scores for SSV Jahn Regensburg on 43′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 4–11–84
45′We said Verl at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–11–84
45′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 0–2 · 4–11–84
45′SECOND HALF Verl 0–2 SSV Jahn Regensburg
53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Andre Leipold · Verl
56′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Verl · On: Kasim Rabihic · Off: Mika Clausen
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Verl · On: Kasim Rabihic · Off: Mika Clausen
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Verl · On: Fabian Wessig · Off: Joshua Eze
60′SUBSTITUTION · 61' SSV Jahn Regensburg · On: Marco Womer · Off: David Lennart Philipp
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Verl win: 51% at kick-off, 1% now
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Verl 1–2 SSV Jahn Regensburg
66′We said Verl at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 1–2 · 7–24–69
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Verl win: 51% at kick-off, 7% now
67′65′ and it is 1–2: Dennis Waidner on the scoresheet for Verl. 1–2 · 7–23–70
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Sascha Hingerl · SSV Jahn Regensburg
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' SSV Jahn Regensburg · On: Zeteny Jano · Off: Sascha Hingerl
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' SSV Jahn Regensburg · On: Jakob Seibold · Off: Lucas Hermes
73′We said Verl at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 25%. 2–2 · 25–59–16
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Verl · On: Emmanuel Bamba · Off: Janne Berner
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Verl 2–2 SSV Jahn Regensburg · Dennis Waidner
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Verl win: 51% at kick-off, 25% now
73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Draw is now our likeliest result at 59% (was SSV Jahn Regensburg win 16%)
74′We said Verl at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 24–60–16
75′Verl level it on 73′ through Dennis Waidner. 2–2. 2–2 · 23–62–15
76′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 22–64–14
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Verl win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
83′We said Verl at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 2–2 · 13–79–9
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Verl win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' SSV Jahn Regensburg · On: John Xaver Posselt · Off: Nassim Boujellab
88′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Verl · On: Yari Otto · Off: Dennis Waidner
88′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Verl · On: Alem Japaur · Off: Andre Leipold
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Verl · On: Yari Otto · Off: Dennis Waidner
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Verl · On: Alem Japaur · Off: Andre Leipold
FTFULL TIME Verl 2–2 SSV Jahn Regensburg
FTVerl 2–2 SSV Jahn Regensburg · Verl win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Verl v SSV Jahn RegensburgBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 17:28 · locked at kick-off

Verl win51%

Draw23%

SSV Jahn Regensburg win26%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 18:00

VenueStadion an der Poststraße

RefereeJonah Samuel Njie Besong

Line-ups

Verl

4-3-3

SSV Jahn Regensburg

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Verl

SSV Jahn Regensburg

3Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Verl	8	-3	11
15	SSV Jahn Regensburg	8	1	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Verl

4-3-3

1 T. Schlieck

34 J. Berner

22 N. Konig

5 N. Seidel

19 N. Kijewski

30 A. Mesanovic

6 J. Eze

8 D. Waidner

20 A. Leipold

21 M. Clausen

25 T. Heike

Coach · Orest Shala

Substitutes

32 · F. Pekruhl

14 · P. Lehmann

11 · M. Kaube

29 · E. Bamba

26 · A. Foti

18 · F. Wessig

23 · K. Rabihic

17 · Y. Otto

9 · A. Japaur

SSV Jahn Regensburg

3-4-3

1 H. Hermann

37 L. Wurm

5 L. Muhl

31 L. Matzler

25 N. Oliveira

35 S. Hingerl

29 A. Fein

7 O. Schonfelder

8 D. Philipp

27 L. Hermes

10 N. Boujellab

Coach · Sascha Hildmann

Substitutes

23 · M. Schmitt

26 · B. Bauer

44 · M. Karbstein

13 · E. Majetschak

21 · Z. Jano

11 · M. Worner

40 · J. Seibold

34 · P. Hobsch

20 · J. Posselt

Our number · verl winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 17:28 · locked at kick-off

51% The market42%

Us51%

~~Market~~42%

We make Verl a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Verl v SSV Jahn Regensburg~~1.95 – 1.34

~~Last six in 3. Liga~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 11 v 8~~12 v 15

~~The market · Verl win~~42% · ours 51%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · verl win The market, margin stripped

Published at 53%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Verl win	51%	42%	+9
Draw	23%	24%	−1
SSV Jahn Regensburg win	26%	34%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	64%	68%	−5
Both teams to score	63%	69%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	84%	85%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	42%	49%	−7
Verl or draw	74%	66%	+8
Verl clean sheet	26%	–	–
SSV Jahn Regensburg clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.3 4.6 3.4 1 6.9 10.2 6.5 2.9 2 7.1 9.3 6.2 2.8 3 4.6 6.1 4.0 4 2.3 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Verl down, SSV Jahn Regensburg across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,978 3. Liga matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.9% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Verl at home: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). SSV Jahn Regensburg away: 2.67 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.95 goals for Verl, 1.34 for SSV Jahn Regensburg. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~VER 1–2 SSV · SSV 2–0 VER · JAH 1–1 VER · VER 1–2 JAH

Form · last six in 3. Liga

VERL

LWWDWD1–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–2

SSV JAHN REGENSBURG

LLDLDW1–5 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 3–3 · 5–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MSV Duisburg	9	15	24
2	FC Viktoria Köln	8	13	18
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	9	6	18
4	Hansa Rostock	9	0	15
5	FC Saarbrücken	9	5	14
6	Waldhof Mannheim	8	5	13
7	Hoffenheim II	9	4	13
8	Preußen Münster	8	-1	12
9	Alemannia Aachen	8	0	11
10	Fortuna Düsseldorf	8	-1	11
11	Stuttgart II	9	-2	11
12	Verl	8	-3	11
13	Fortuna Köln	9	-2	10
14	SV Meppen	9	-5	10
15	SSV Jahn Regensburg	8	1	8
16	Würzburger Kickers	9	-6	8
17	FC Ingolstadt 04	8	-6	8
18	SV Wehen	8	-6	8
19	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	8	-7	8
20	Havelse	9	-10	5