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SV Wehen v SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

SV Wehen
7–1Full time
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

3. Liga · SAT 24 OCT · Brita Arena

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38
SV Wehen 7–1 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach SV WEHEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said SV Wehen win49%
The market said48%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.391
The market’s Brier score0.402

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay24 notes · 28 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said SV Wehen win at 49%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: SV Wehen 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–25–26
  3. 1′KICK-OFF SV Wehen v SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
  4. 17′A goal for SV Wehen on 16′. 0–0 · 46–28–26
  5. 18′A goal for SV Wehen on 17′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–17–9
  6. 18′Marcus Muller scores for SV Wehen on 18′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–17–9
  7. 18′⚽ GOAL · 17' SV Wehen 1–0 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
  8. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' SV Wehen win: 49% at kick-off, 74% now
  9. 19′We said SV Wehen at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–17–9
  10. 28′We said SV Wehen at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–17–8
  11. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 75–17–8
  12. 30′We said SV Wehen at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
  13. 30′⚽ GOAL · 30' SV Wehen 2–0 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
  14. 30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' SV Wehen win: 49% at kick-off, 92% now
  15. 32′30′: Florian Hübner on the scoresheet for SV Wehen, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
  16. 33′🟨 YELLOW · 31' V. Celiktas · SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
  17. 35′We said SV Wehen at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 3–0 · 98–1–0
  18. 35′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 98–1–0
  19. 35′🟨 YELLOW · 34' P. Reinhardt · SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
  20. 35′⚽ GOAL · 35' SV Wehen 3–0 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
  21. 37′SV Wehen ahead on 35′ through Roberto Massimo. 3–0. 3–0 · 98–1–0
  22. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' SV Wehen win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
  23. 39′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 93–6–1
  24. 39′⚽ GOAL · 39' SV Wehen 3–1 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
  25. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' SV Wehen win: 49% at kick-off, 93% now
  26. 40′Luca Damiano Molinari scores for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach on 39′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 93–5–1
  27. 50′5 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 99–1–0
  28. 50′⚽ GOAL · 50' SV Wehen 4–1 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
  29. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' SV Wehen win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
  30. 52′52′: Fabian Greilinger on the scoresheet for SV Wehen, making it 4–1. 4–1 · 99–1–0
  31. 52′50′: Fabian Greilinger on the scoresheet for SV Wehen, making it 4–1. 4–1 · 99–1–0
  32. 56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach · On: Leon Maier · Off: V. Celiktas
  33. 56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach · On: Marius Uhl · Off: Antonis Aidonis
  34. 60′We said SV Wehen at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  35. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach · On: Lukas Stoppel · Off: Niklas Pollex
  36. 67′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 5–1 · 100–0–0
  37. 67′⚽ GOAL · 67' SV Wehen 5–1 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
  38. 68′SV Wehen ahead on 66′ through Raul Paula. 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
  39. 73′7 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 6–1 · 100–0–0
  40. 73′Gino Fechner scores for SV Wehen on 72′ — 6–1. 6–1 · 100–0–0
  41. 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' SV Wehen 6–1 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
  42. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' SV Wehen · On: Niklas May · Off: Fabian Greilinger Corrected
  43. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' SV Wehen · On: Moritz Flotho · Off: Marcus Muller Corrected
  44. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach · On: Franz Bleicher · Off: Tim Rossmann
  45. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach · On: Marlon Freddy Faß · Off: Loris Maier
  46. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' SV Wehen · On: Robin Kalem · Off: Raul Paula Corrected
  47. 78′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Fabian Eisele · SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
  48. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' SV Wehen · On: Tarik Gözüsirin · Off: Lukas Schleimer
  49. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' SV Wehen · On: Michael Schultz · Off: Florian Hübner
  50. 92′That is 8, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 7–1 · 100–0–0
  51. 92′90′: Robin Kalem on the scoresheet for SV Wehen, making it 7–1. 7–1 · 100–0–0
  52. 92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' SV Wehen 7–1 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
  53. FTFULL TIME SV Wehen 7–1 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
  54. FTSV Wehen 7–1 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach · SV Wehen win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SV Wehen are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SV Wehen 49%, draw 25%, SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 26%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on SV Wehen v SG Sonnenhof GrossaspachBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

SV Wehen win49%
Draw25%
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach win26%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueBrita Arena

RefereeMax Kluge

Line-ups

SV Wehen

4-1-4-1

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SV Wehen

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. Liga

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. Liga

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
13SV Wehen10−312
15SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach10−612

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

SV Wehen

4-1-4-1

16 F. Stritzel

18 F. Greilinger

19 F. Hübner

15 J. Janitzek

17 Ben Nink

37 M. Brandt

22 R. Massimo

7 L. Schleimer

6 G. Fechner

32 R. Paula

21 M. Müller

Coach · J. Seitz

Substitutes

20 · Ayoub Chaikhoun

31 · N. Brdar

45 · I. Ati Allah

28 · M. Flotho

11 · T. Gözüsirin

29 · P. Hercher

10 · R. Kalem

5 · N. May

14 · M. Schultz

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

4-2-3-1

1 M. Reule

8 Jan Elias Rahn

15 A. Aidonis

25 A. Nuraj

21 L. Molinari

5 Volkan Celiktas

16 M. Kunde

27 Loris Maier

18 N. Pollex

11 T. Rossmann

23 F. Eisele

Coach · Pascal Reinhardt

Substitutes

13 · N. Zografakis

4 · F. Bleicher

9 · Marlon Freddy Faß

36 · M. Gashi

22 · B. Landwehr

20 · Leon Maier

33 · T. Schulz

10 · L. Stoppel

19 · M. Uhl

Our number · sv wehen winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
49% The market48%
Us49%
Market48%

We make SV Wehen a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · SV Wehen v SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach1.72 – 1.20
Form · last six in 3. Liga this season · since 12 SeptW3 D1 L2 · W1 D3 L2
Table places · points 12 v 1213 v 15
The market · SV Wehen win48% · ours 49%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 12:17
Our probability · SV Wehen win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
SV Wehen win49%48%+1
Draw25%25%0
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach win26%27%−1
Over 2.5 goals56%62%−6
Both teams to score57%62%−5
Over 1.5 goals79%81%−2
Over 3.5 goals33%41%−8
SV Wehen or draw74%73%+1
SV Wehen clean sheet31%––
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach clean sheet18%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%
0123450 6.1 6.1 3.9 1 8.9 11.5 6.6 2.7 2 8.0 9.4 5.6 2.3 3 4.6 5.4 3.2 4 2.4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+SV Wehen down, SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Liga this season · since 12 Sept

SV WEHEN

LWLWWD0–1 · 2–0 · 1–4 · 4–2 · 3–0 · 0–0

SG SONNENHOF GROSSASPACH

DDLLDW2–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–5 · 2–2 · 3–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1MSV Duisburg10+1525
2Rot-Weiß Essen11+621
3FC Viktoria Köln10+1320
4FC Saarbrücken10+717
5Hoffenheim II10+516
6Hansa Rostock10−215
7Stuttgart II10−114
8Alemannia Aachen10−114
9FC Ingolstadt 0410−214
10Fortuna Düsseldorf10−214
11Waldhof Mannheim10013
12Preußen Münster10−312
13SV Wehen10−312
14Verl10−412
15SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach10−612
16Würzburger Kickers10−411
17SV Meppen10−511
18SSV Jahn Regensburg11010
19Fortuna Köln10−310
20Havelse10−106

The competition's standings before kick-off.