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Model 1.1

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SV Wehen v Alemannia Aachen

SV Wehen
3–0Full time
Alemannia Aachen

3. Liga · WED 14 OCT · Brita Arena

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 20:30
SV Wehen 3–0 Alemannia Aachen SV WEHEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said SV Wehen win37%
The market said40%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.594
The market’s Brier score0.547

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 26 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said SV Wehen win at 37%.
  2. 2′Little has changed for our model: SV Wehen 37% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–25–38
  3. 2′KICK-OFF SV Wehen v Alemannia Aachen
  4. 20′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Alemannia Aachen
  5. 20′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Mehdi Loune · Alemannia Aachen
  6. 45′We said SV Wehen at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 1–0 · 68–22–10
  7. 45′45′ and it is 1–0: Lukas Schleimer on the scoresheet for SV Wehen. 1–0 · 68–22–10
  8. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45' SV Wehen 1–0 Alemannia Aachen
  9. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' SV Wehen win: 37% at kick-off, 68% now
  10. 45′HALF-TIME SV Wehen 1–0 Alemannia Aachen
  11. 46′SECOND HALF SV Wehen 1–0 Alemannia Aachen
  12. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Alemannia Aachen · On: Georg Ermolaev · Off: Kacper Koscierski
  13. 49′We said SV Wehen at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–22–9
  14. 51′We said SV Wehen at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 2–0 · 92–7–2
  15. 51′⚽ GOAL · 51' SV Wehen 2–0 Alemannia Aachen · Lukas Schleimer
  16. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' SV Wehen win: 37% at kick-off, 92% now
  17. 52′SV Wehen ahead on 51′ through Gino Fechner. 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
  18. 53′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 2–0 · 92–6–1
  19. 62′We said SV Wehen at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
  20. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' SV Wehen · On: Moritz flotho · Off: Marcus Muller
  21. 63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Raul Paula · SV Wehen
  22. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Alemannia Aachen · On: meiko waschenbach · Off: Mehdi Loune
  23. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Alemannia Aachen · On: Fabio Torsiello · Off: Lukas Scepanik
  24. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Alemannia Aachen · On: meiko waschenbach · Off: Mehdi Loune
  25. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Alemannia Aachen · On: Louis Köster · Off: Ken Eghosa Gideon Izekor
  26. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' SV Wehen win: 37% at kick-off, 97% now
  27. 73′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Dylan Leonard · Alemannia Aachen
  28. 77′⚽ GOAL · 77' SV Wehen 3–0 Alemannia Aachen · Gino Fechner
  29. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' SV Wehen · On: Philipp Hercher · Off: Niklas May
  30. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' SV Wehen · On: Robin Kalem · Off: Lukas Schleimer
  31. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' SV Wehen · On: Ayoub Chaikhoun · Off: Raul Paula
  32. 78′We said SV Wehen at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  33. 78′3 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  34. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 75' SV Wehen · On: Robin Kalem · Off: Lukas Schleimer
  35. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 75' SV Wehen · On: Ayoub Chaikhoun · Off: Raul Paula
  36. 80′Roberto Massimo scores for SV Wehen on 77′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  37. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' SV Wehen · On: Ibrahim Ati Allah · Off: Roberto Massimo
  38. FTFULL TIME SV Wehen 3–0 Alemannia Aachen
  39. FTSV Wehen 3–0 Alemannia Aachen · SV Wehen win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on SV Wehen v Alemannia AachenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 17:28 · locked at kick-off

SV Wehen win37%
Draw25%
Alemannia Aachen win37%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 18:00

VenueBrita Arena

RefereeKevin Behrens

Line-ups

SV Wehen

4-1-4-1

Alemannia Aachen

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

SV Wehen

Alemannia Aachen

3Days since last match3
1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
9Alemannia Aachen8011
18SV Wehen8-68

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

SV Wehen

4-1-4-1

16 F. Stritzel

18 F. Greilinger

19 F. Hubner

15 J. Janitzek

5 N. May

37 M. Brandt

22 R. Massimo

7 L. Schleimer

6 G. Fechner

32 R. Paula

21 M. Muller

Coach · Jochen Seitz

Substitutes

31 · N. Brdar

14 · M. Schultz

29 · P. Hercher

24 · T. Neubert

20 · A. Chaikhoun

10 · R. Kalem

8 · D. Bogicevic

45 · I. Allah

28 · M. Flotho

Alemannia Aachen

4-4-2

1 M. Riemann

37 J. Kiala

4 D. Leonard

2 P. Bagkalianis

3 M. Wagner

29 K. Koscierski

28 D. Wiebe

10 M. Loune

7 L. Scepanik

18 K. Izekor

9 D. Starodid

Coach · Mersad Selimbegovic

Substitutes

23 · S. Bajic

15 · M. Hanraths

17 · F. Torsiello

11 · M. Waschenbach

8 · L. Koster

19 · N. Bitumazala

20 · G. Ermolaev

30 · J. von der Hitz

38 · V. Sulejmani

Our number · sv wehen winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 17:28 · locked at kick-off
37% The market40%
Us37%
Market40%

We make SV Wehen a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · SV Wehen v Alemannia Aachen1.50 – 1.49
Last six in 3. LigaW2 D2 L2 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 8 v 1118 v 9
The market · SV Wehen win40% · ours 37%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45% 9 OCT 06:1813 OCT 05:37
Our probability · sv wehen win The market, margin stripped

Published at 35%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
SV Wehen win37%40%−2
Draw25%26%−1
Alemannia Aachen win37%34%+3
Over 2.5 goals57%57%0
Both teams to score60%61%0
Over 1.5 goals80%79%+1
Over 3.5 goals35%37%−2
SV Wehen or draw63%66%−3
SV Wehen clean sheet23%––
Alemannia Aachen clean sheet23%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%
0123450 5.7 7.0 5.6 2.8 1 7.1 11.7 8.3 4.1 2 5.6 8.3 6.2 3.1 3 2.8 4.2 3.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+SV Wehen down, Alemannia Aachen across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024
Goals a meeting2.25
Over 2.53 of 4
Both scored2 of 4
Last meetingsALE 3–0 SVW · SVW 1–2 ALE · SVW 2–1 ALE · ALE 0–0 SVW

Form · last six in 3. Liga

SV WEHEN

DDLWLW0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–4 · 4–2

ALEMANNIA AACHEN

LWDLWL0–3 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–5

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1MSV Duisburg91524
2FC Viktoria Köln81318
3Rot-Weiß Essen9618
4Hansa Rostock9015
5FC Saarbrücken9514
6Waldhof Mannheim8513
7Hoffenheim II9413
8Preußen Münster8-112
9Alemannia Aachen8011
10Fortuna Düsseldorf8-111
11Stuttgart II9-211
12Verl8-311
13Fortuna Köln9-210
14SV Meppen9-510
15SSV Jahn Regensburg818
16Würzburger Kickers9-68
17FC Ingolstadt 048-68
18SV Wehen8-68
19SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach8-78
20Havelse9-105

The competition's standings.