SV Meppen v Würzburger Kickers prediction · 3. Liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

SV Meppen 4–0 Würzburger Kickers SV MEPPEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SV Meppen win~~42%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.501

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.393

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said SV Meppen win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: SV Meppen 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–25–32
1′KICK-OFF SV Meppen v Würzburger Kickers
26′We said SV Meppen at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 1–0 · 69–19–11
26′SUBSTITUTION · 25' Würzburger Kickers · On: Dominik Meisel · Off: L. Omore
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' SV Meppen 1–0 Würzburger Kickers
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' SV Meppen win: 42% at kick-off, 69% now
27′Oliver Issa Schmitt scores for SV Meppen on 27′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 69–19–11
28′Oliver Issa Schmitt scores for SV Meppen on 26′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 69–19–11
29′We said SV Meppen at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–19–11
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 70–20–11
33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Dominik Meisel · Würzburger Kickers
35′SUBSTITUTION · 33' SV Meppen · On: Luca Prasse · Off: Thorben Deters
36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Luke Hemmerich · Würzburger Kickers
39′We said SV Meppen at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 2–0 · 91–7–2
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' SV Meppen 2–0 Würzburger Kickers
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' SV Meppen win: 42% at kick-off, 91% now
41′39′: Stefan Rankic on the scoresheet for SV Meppen, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 91–7–2
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' SV Meppen win: 42% at kick-off, 92% now
45′SECOND HALF SV Meppen 2–0 Würzburger Kickers
47′HALF-TIME SV Meppen 2–0 Würzburger Kickers
49′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Würzburger Kickers · On: Thomas Kastanaras · Off: Franck Evina
58′We said SV Meppen at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
61′3 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 99–1–0
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' SV Meppen 3–0 Würzburger Kickers
62′SV Meppen ahead on 61′ through Jannic Ehlers. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
65′We said SV Meppen at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' SV Meppen · On: Nikell Touglo · Off: Jonas Fedl
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' SV Meppen · On: Cyrill Akono · Off: Kasra Ghawilu
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' SV Meppen · On: Florian Bahr · Off: Tobias Missner
73′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Würzburger Kickers · On: David Kinsombi · Off: N. Embaye
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' SV Meppen 4–0 Würzburger Kickers
74′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Würzburger Kickers · On: Jermain Nischalke · Off: Tim Kraus
77′An own goal by Würzburger Kickers's Louis Breunig on 73′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
82′SUBSTITUTION · 79' SV Meppen · On: Jona Borsum · Off: Luis Sprekelmeyer
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Würzburger Kickers · On: Philipp Ochs · Off: Tarsis Bonga
93′4–0 at the end. Our 42% on SV Meppen comes in. 4–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME SV Meppen 4–0 Würzburger Kickers
FTSV Meppen 4–0 Würzburger Kickers · SV Meppen win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SV Meppen are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SV Meppen 42%, draw 25%, Würzburger Kickers 32%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on SV Meppen v Würzburger KickersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

SV Meppen win42%

Draw25%

Würzburger Kickers win32%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueHänsch-Arena

RefereeDavina Lutz

Line-ups

SV Meppen

4-1-4-1

Würzburger Kickers

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SV Meppen

Würzburger Kickers

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · 3. Liga

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. Liga

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Würzburger Kickers	10	−4	11
17	SV Meppen	10	−5	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

SV Meppen

4-1-4-1

44 J. Pünt

2 Dominique Domrose

19 L. Sprekelmeyer

33 Stefan Rankic

3 T. Mißner

5 J. Fedl

10 K. Ghawilu

6 E. Zehir

14 T. Deters

7 O. Schmitt

17 J. Ehlers

Coach · L. Beniermann

Substitutes

39 · F. Bähr

4 · Jona Borsum

9 · C. Akono

1 · N. Oberbeck

11 · S. Engelmann

40 · N. Nadj

31 · L. Prasse

20 · N. Touglo

23 · N. Wessels

Würzburger Kickers

4-4-2

33 M. Rajkovačić

17 L. Omore

16 L. Breunig

28 E. Farahnak

21 L. Hemmerich

37 I. Franjić

6 Namrud Embaye

27 Xaver Kiefersauer

18 F. Evina

31 T. Kraus

30 T. Bonga

Coach · M. Schiele

Substitutes

13 · P. Ochs

11 · D. Berisha

5 · L. Eberle

1 · Johann Hipper

34 · Burak Karakaya

19 · T. Kastanaras

8 · D. Kinsombi

25 · D. Meisel

9 · Jermain Nischalke

Our number · sv meppen winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

42% The market49%

Us42%

~~Market~~49%

We make SV Meppen a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · SV Meppen v Würzburger Kickers~~1.60 – 1.37

~~Form · last six in 3. Liga this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 11 v 11~~17 v 16

~~The market · SV Meppen win~~49% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · SV Meppen win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SV Meppen win	42%	49%	−7
Draw	25%	25%	0
Würzburger Kickers win	32%	27%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	56%	60%	−4
Both teams to score	59%	61%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	80%	80%	0
Over 3.5 goals	34%	40%	−6
SV Meppen or draw	68%	73%	−5
SV Meppen clean sheet	26%	–	–
Würzburger Kickers clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 5.9 6.7 4.9 2.2 1 7.8 11.6 7.5 3.5 2 6.6 8.8 5.9 2.7 3 3.5 4.7 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SV Meppen down, Würzburger Kickers across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,994 3. Liga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.4% of games this season, across 101 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SV Meppen at home: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Würzburger Kickers away: 1.17 scored, 3.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for SV Meppen, 1.37 for Würzburger Kickers. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SVM 2–4 WUR · WUR 1–3 SVM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Liga this season · since 12 Sept

SV MEPPEN

LLLDWD1–2 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–1

WÜRZBURGER KICKERS

LWLLDW2–6 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MSV Duisburg	10	+15	25
2	Rot-Weiß Essen	11	+6	21
3	FC Viktoria Köln	10	+13	20
4	FC Saarbrücken	10	+7	17
5	Hoffenheim II	10	+5	16
6	Hansa Rostock	10	−2	15
7	Stuttgart II	10	−1	14
8	Alemannia Aachen	10	−1	14
9	FC Ingolstadt 04	10	−2	14
10	Fortuna Düsseldorf	10	−2	14
11	Waldhof Mannheim	10	0	13
12	Preußen Münster	10	−3	12
13	SV Wehen	10	−3	12
14	Verl	10	−4	12
15	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	10	−6	12
16	Würzburger Kickers	10	−4	11
17	SV Meppen	10	−5	11
18	SSV Jahn Regensburg	11	0	10
19	Fortuna Köln	10	−3	10
20	Havelse	10	−10	6